Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?

[PPerfectfan]

I think Curlin maybe the Bellamy Road of this year. And I think Dominican maybe the "wiseguy" horse of the Derby that always takes lots of money and doesnt light the board. jmo I am sticking with Street Sense. And I like Nobiz/Zanjero/AGS for the bottom slots/super.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Title of the thread says it all "Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?"...

Yes, he is...much like Bellamy Road was for being a 17 1/2 length winner in the Wood. I pray Curlin is the favorite on Derby Day, he might cash in on a lesser prize, but he is not winning.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Title of the thread says it all "Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?"...

Yes, he is...much like Bellamy Road was for being a 17 1/2 length winner in the Wood. I pray Curlin is the favorite on Derby Day, he might cash in on a lesser prize, but he is not winning.

okay, why is he not winning?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

okay, why is he not winning?

didn't you see, he doesn't have a shot at hitting the board?!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Danzig

didn't you see, he doesn't have a shot at hitting the board?!

yes ,lol, I saw that. ummm, I guess I look for a little more actual reasoning to accomodate the opinion.

One horse that both Curlin and SS ran against was the closer Delightful Kiss. In both races, Curlin and SS fired their "A" game or at least close to it and DK seems to be a pretty reliable decent horse.

In the TB derby, DK lost by 6 1/4 lengths, although he ducked out quite a bit at the start, in Ark Dby, he lost by 11 1/2 lengths.

Perhaps more interesting, in the stretch runs of each race, he lost 2 3/4 lengths or so to Curlin, and he lost about 1 1/4 lengths to SS. The Tb Dby was 1/16 of a mile shorter and probably wind aided in the home stretch but one would guess that based on this, Curlin is certainly not overrated.

He reminds me of a lightly raced Lawyer Ron. He ran well at FG and Oaklawn, just like Lawyer Ron. Will he **** the bed in the Derby? We'll see.

Disclaimer: I lost alot of money today so my opinion isn't as valuable as some. Take it with a grain of salt.

[JJP]

Curlin is better than Lawyer Ron, who was just unrateable. Was his Ark Derby better than Smarty Jones? Arguably it was. The 2004 field did have Borrego and Purge so that was a better bunch but I think Curlin would've dusted both Borrego and Purge as well.

The Bellamy Road comparisons are apples to oranges, IMO, since Bellamy Road was a need the lead type. Curlin doesn't have to lead every step of the way.

So what was the best prep, anyways? People though the Blue Grass was going to be but considering how it was run, I'd say no way. The Fountain of Youth might be, since it produced both the FLA Derby winner and the Wood winner.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He reminds me of a lightly raced Lawyer Ron. He ran well at FG and Oaklawn, just like Lawyer Ron. Will he **** the bed in the Derby? We'll see.

Disclaimer: I lost alot of money today so my opinion isn't as valuable as some. Take it with a grain of salt.

if you're talking Curlin he did not run at FG his first time was at GP. I am a little confused...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

One horse that both Curlin and SS ran against was the closer Delightful Kiss. In both races, Curlin and SS fired their "A" game or at least close to it and DK seems to be a pretty reliable decent horse.

In the TB derby, DK lost by 6 1/4 lengths, although he ducked out quite a bit at the start, in Ark Dby, he lost by 11 1/2 lengths.

Perhaps more interesting, in the stretch runs of each race, he lost 2 3/4 lengths or so to Curlin, and he lost about 1 1/4 lengths to SS. The Tb Dby was 1/16 of a mile shorter and probably wind aided in the home stretch but one would guess that based on this, Curlin is certainly not overrated.

And King of the Roxy beat Storm in May by 11 3/4 lengths in the Hutchinson. I guess Curlin will be filling out the exacta behind him in the Derby.

[Danzig]

what, six degrees of delightful kiss??

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And King of the Roxy beat Storm in May by 11 3/4 lengths in the Hutchinson. I guess Curlin will be filling out the exacta behind him in the Derby.

It's well understood that there is a big difference between 7 fur. races and those longer distances we see in the derby preps. If you want to choose KoRox over Curlin at 7 fur. it might be a decent comparison but the only 7 1/2 fur. race for Curlin is the maiden he won, first time out by 12 3/4! So even then, you dont have a common opponent at 7 fur. and Curlin did pretty well his only go at one turn...

Moreover, the very idea of Beyer figs as I understand them is to be able to compare horses to one another, when they ship to other tracks or whatever. I maybe wrong about that, I only have a casual knowledge of them but I think that is the idea and a reasonable idea. Most people agree Beyer did something for the sport with his figs. even though they are not the be all and end all either. But you are not opposed to his idea are you?

One would think someone of your experience would see the distinction after all, dont experienced punters speak about such things as pace, pressure, ability to stretch out? Clearly comparing horses at difference distances is a recipe for disaster, just imagine comparing Roberto Clemente to Henry Aaron in a league where the fences are 400' from home plate (e.g. in the Caribean winter league)?

This stuff is rather obvious so I guess you just want to be a prick or else confuse other people.

As I stated previously, there are all sorts of comparisons that may be made, and one race is certainly not the be all and end all by any means. I tried to find a horse that was reasonable comparison, I tried to find distances that were reasonably the same distance, I tried to find a horse that was as highly regarded for the derby as Curlin, I tried to find a horse that seemed to fire about the same in each race, DK is a decent horse, he did decent in each race. I tried to point that there were some differences in the race e.g. trouble and wind. There is no perfect comparison and of course other data pts. would certainly be appreciated.

Perhaps you can try again with a more intelligent post. Instead of using a horse like KoRox that has not shot at getting 10f, you can find a horse that is highly regarded for the derby? That might be interesting.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

okay, why is he not winning?

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

nice reply.

some others need to take note--a post like the above, whether one agrees with the opinion or not, is far more meaningful than the reply 'well, i just don't like him' as a reason to bet against!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

nice reply.

some others need to take note--a post like the above, whether one agrees with the opinion or not, is far more meaningful than the reply 'well, i just don't like him' as a reason to bet against!!

Duly noted.

One quick question.....do you think Time Squared can win the Bluegrass?

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

...This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor... he got tested and he backed out....

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by easy goer

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

bernardini was fourth in his first start, i don't know much about that race, how it was run, who won it--but he certainly finished behind some horses in his debut.
as for curlin--the question remains, much like bernardini, is what will he do when he gets eyeballed? a lot of people say who knows what will happen, since he hasn't been, but what if curlin hasn't been because no one can keep up with him long enough to test him? now, after only three starts, i'm certainly not going to start with the 'he's a monster' talk (of course, i have seen that mentioned here) or he can't be tested--he's only run three times!

as to whether he's overrated due to large margins, i guess i'd rather have a horse who may be overrated due to big wins, then to have a horse suffering narrow losses, or barely eking out a win.
so, what helps you to sleep better at night if it's your horse? big win, or narrow but gutsy win?

Originally Posted by Danzig

so, what helps you to sleep better at night if it's your horse? big win, or narrow but gutsy win?

as a general prop. probably the gutsy win. Because usually the gutsy win comes at the expense of another good horse and the easy win comes at the expense of chumps and tends to be overrated.

But it's hard to use generalities when you have to bet on an individual horse. If you were to read about these races 100 years from now you, and didnt know the outcome of the derby, you'd probably think Curlin was some flash in the pan who had ran against nobodies. And the best horses had run in FL.

Every time you apply generalities to a horse race you risk being undone by a horse that seems to defy it. Barbaro gunning from the 10 hole at GP. No one had won from that hole at two turns at the new park.

There's really no way to know for sure. Otherwise I guess the parimutual system would have gone broke years ago.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by easy goer

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

I think you make a fair point. But, Bernardini lost his first race, so he faced adversity, had some dirt kicked in his face, and felt the heat of a race. Curlin still hasn't done that.

I think my views on "pressure" in this case are somewhat irrelevant. "Pressure" on Derby Day is totally different than any other pressure in any other race. 20 horses, 160,000 people, the stampede to the first turn, the long home stretch. There is too much to overcome, in most cases. You need alot of things to break your way, and that includes having a horse that has faced adversity, can adapt and adjust and find a way. Curlin just hasn't seen that yet and if he faces it on Derby Day, without seeing it before, he is far less likely to be in a position to react in a positive manner as opposed to those who have. Does it totally rule him out? Of course not, but for me, he's a horse to round out the exotics with. I wasn't sold on Barbaro last year until I went back and watched the Florida Derby again a few times. He dug deep and toughed out a really gutty win from his post on that track. Real gutsy. So, come Derby Day, yeah there was traffic, yeah there was speed, but he was in a familiar position.

Again, especially at the price. He closed at 7-2 on the third installment of the future wager. 7-2!!!

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

I think my views on "pressure" in this case are somewhat irrelevant. "Pressure" on Derby Day is totally different than any other pressure in any other race. 20 horses, 160,000 people, the stampede to the first turn, the long home stretch. There is too much to overcome, in most cases. You need alot of things to break your way, and that includes having a horse that has faced adversity, can adapt and adjust and find a way. Curlin just hasn't seen that yet and if he faces it on Derby Day, without seeing it before, he is far less likely to be in a position to react in a positive manner as opposed to those who have. !!!

Your views on pressure may be irrelevant in "great scheme of things" but they might help us to better understand what we are talking about and what we think Curlins problems may be.

If we are saying Curlin may not get 10f if he is forced to run fast in the third quarter that is one thing. ANd perhaps we can look his PPs, or perhaps we can find similar horses, or similar pedigrees and go from there.

If we are talking psychological pressure that is another analysis. I tried to say that personally I dont but into much of it, so you know where I am coming from.

But you are talking about yet another type of pressure! The huge crowd. Does that really happen? It has happened to human performers. Dont know what the hell horses are thinking. Do we have examples of this? Hansel?? I dunno..

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Again, especially at the price. He closed at 7-2 on the third installment of the future wager. 7-2!!!

Who Barbaro? or Curlin. YOu are talking Curlin yes? Little bit confusing, meaning "especially". Especially what??