Cowtown Cat gets huge BRIS #. Cobalt Blue gets excused

[blackthroatedwind]

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

When Fleet Indian won that race with the insane raw number from last year, I believe there was a Graded Stake race for colts that was also run at 9 furlongs and went MUCH slower....albeit it may have been the worst Grade 3 for older males ever...and even still the massive gap in the times seemed fishy.

I think a case can be made that the other numbers you mention were all legit. SNS had a dream trip in that HAW win...and his tough trip 2nd in the Preakness two races later seemed to confirm that number to me. Greeley's Galaxy was bias aided and beat a lousy field by a lopsided margin. In War Emblem's case, he was an impressive Preakness winner two races later. Ten Most Wanted was 2nd in the Belmont two races later..and won the Travers later on.

As for Cowtown Cat's number, it's a hard figure to have any confidence in either way...and I don't even want to stab at it myself.

I agree though---the computerized version of speed figures are more likely to make a big mistake, and mistakes compound with figures, and as they add up the figures become less and less reliable.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When Fleet Indian won that race with the insane raw number from last year, I believe there was a Graded Stake race for colts that was also run at 9 furlongs and went MUCH slower....albeit it may have been the worst Grade 3 for older males ever...and even still the massive gap in the times seemed fishy.

I think a case can be made that the other numbers you mention were all legit. SNS had a dream trip in that HAW win...and his tough trip 2nd in the Preakness two races later seemed to confirm that number to me. Greeley's Galaxy was bias aided and beat a lousy field by a lopsided margin. In War Emblem's case, he was an impressive Preakness winner two races later. Ten Most Wanted was 2nd in the Belmont two races later..and won the Travers later on.

As for Cowtown Cat's number, it's a hard figure to have any confidence in either way...and I don't even want to stab at it myself.

I agree though---the computerized version of speed figures are more likely to make a big mistake, and mistakes compound with figures, and as they add up the figures become less and less reliable.

Yep, Three Hour Nap won a dreadful rendition of the National Jockey Club G3. Summer Book ran second and Courthouse (still looking to clear his NW3X condition...)ran third and was later DQ'ed. For kicks, favorites Colita and Evening Attire ran a long looking last and second to last. That race was just awful, but Fleet Indian ran a monster race and the time was very swift given the surface is was run over which has a tendency to produce less than stunning raw times.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

war emblem did not run@hawthorne he ran his ILL derby at the"new" sportsmans which was heavily speed biased. yeah it was the long stretch in the biz but if you werent within 3 turnin for home you had zero chance

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product..

It deceived me for a long time.....looking back that was really stupid and wonder how much it hurt my handicapping.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.

Not to mention rarely run at multiple class levels; therefore a skewed sample is resultant for the "par" time.

One thing I do like about Timeforms (as useless as they are) is they provide a "key" to the confidence level in the fig.