Tiago's Beyers???

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

I love Pleasant Tap too, it's great to see a sire with stamina and soundness. Premium Tap may end up being the "big horse" he needs to get more notariety.

Here's my issue with Tiago. He beat a miler (at best), a horse that's maybe 7th in his own barn, and a bunch of nobodies. Not to mention the horse that beat him easily in his last start got clobbered in a 2nd string prep at even money.

On top of that, I have an issue with the Beyer. There were 6 dirt races on Saturday:
MSW 3yo's at a mile 1:37.62
MSW 3U at 6.5F 1:17.34
G2 Potrero Grande at 6F 1:14.83
40k Optional claimer at 6F 1:08.87
40k Starter allowance at 6F 1:10.35

So by my calculations if the don't split the variant for 2 turns, a 100 Beyer in the SA Derby gives the Potrero Grande about a 121-122. Smokey is one fast beast but I'm not sure I'm buying that (and they actually gave him a 115 I think). The allowance would be in the 115 range, which also seems awfully high. I think the number should be more like a 94, not splitting the variant.

The one thing I can say positive is the consistent fractions analysis is very positive in determining a Derby winner and I'm sure he'll stay the 10F.