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#1
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IMO, you had a lucky run in two samples. I'm not saying that it isn't a fun way to try to build up a profit. You may get more bang (in terms of time/$$) for your buck than many other ways. But in pure $$ value, I don't see any advantage over just taking a 5/2 shot to win. You can do a test of this over in the "Contests" forum, if you really think it works. (See randall's ongoing place vs exacta test as an excellent example of how to proceed). Because the odds involved in your test are so low, you would only need to do maybe 20 attempts to get a reasonable estimate of how good the idea is. (the more, the better, however) You would need to specify the number of total attempts ahead of time, then you'd need to post the 10 show bets ahead of time before each attempt. (you don't need to post all 10 at once, but each "pick" would have to be posted before its race.) I'm pretty confident you'd end up with a negative ROI. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#2
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This last contest I did, in fact, post my picks to the board until I was eliminated. Were I actually betting, I probably would have schnitzeled a little off at about round 10 as profit. And, based on my experience in this contest, I think I could have done this over a course of 5 to 10 days. What's more, I think this can be done at least a third of the time if one is patient enough to pick races with small fields of 6 or less. I may take up this experiment at a time that is not so hectic. Right now, I'm a little too busy to commit to it. If someone else would like to try it out, feel free. I will join in when the studies aren't demanding so much of my time. for now, consider my string of 12 and 17 to be the first of 20 attempts. Fair enough? Unfortunately I don't still have the picks from the first contest as that was a good 3 or 4 months ago. But, I suspect the return was very similar. I do still have the picks from the round of 17 if anyone is interested enough to confirm....I suspect no one is so I will leave it at that! Last edited by jman5581 : 04-06-2007 at 10:45 AM. |
#3
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Having said that, I would be very interested in seeing your experiment go forward. If you are very carefully choosing your races, I don't rule out the possibility that you could have an edge. But it's a very bad idea to conclude you have an edge based on 2 attempts plus some anecdotal evidence from friends. Quote:
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#4
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![]() Boy I sure do Dunbar. When you could get a rebate on horses with low show prices, that's something. But a straight 5% win needing to put up decent money to get any decent return will end badly eventually.
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#5
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#6
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![]() Betting any horse where your expected payout is 2.10 is bridge jumping. No, you aren't putting 100 grand on the horse so you won't be jumping off the Verrazano. But for that guy where 10 bucks matters, he may be jumping into the kiddie pool with floaties attached....and for 50 cents?
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#7
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#8
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![]() Semantics Jman.
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#9
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Let's say I walk by a roulette table, and I see that red has come up 5 times in a row (on the history display). If I see one more red come up, does that make it REALLY likely that red is a good strategy? If you had said ahead of time, 'guys, I'm going to test a show parlay theory and post all my picks here', then fine. Those first 2 sets would belong. But it's bad statistical practice to decide after-the-fact that certain bets count. At any rate, if there is any merit in show parlays, you should be able to demonstrate it without resorting to past bets. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#10
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![]() I guess the way I see it, I was at the roulette table playing....so, by your analogy, it would be okay to use as part of the sample. I could very easily say, "Hey, I picked red, I'll try red 19 more times and that'll make 20"....
If I do this, it will be a rather long experiment. I will likely use the most recent picks I made as the first sample because they're there for everyone to see if they wish, so long as that thread doesn't get deleted. If it's even remotely close at the end of the experiment I suppose I could always do one more round. |
#11
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jman, you will get into trouble down the line if you don't understand that a test has to be well-defined before the test starts. You will find angles that look good, but are really just flukes of the way you are measuring. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
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