Bluegrass or Florida Derby

[Linny]

The G1 is very important for the connections of AGS as he is owned by WinStar Farm which is like Coolmore Light. They are a stud operation meaning that racing for them is a means to an end, breeding. As a KY based outfit, the win at KEE is significant as well.
Arky clearly looks easier, he'd be 1-2 there, but I figure he'll be 2-1 in the Blue Grass anyhow. It's not like he's got only an outside shot there.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Linny

The G1 is very important for the connections of AGS as he is owned by WinStar Farm which is like Coolmore Light. They are a stud operation meaning that racing for them is a means to an end, breeding. As a KY based outfit, the win at KEE is significant as well.
Arky clearly looks easier, he'd be 1-2 there, but I figure he'll be 2-1 in the Blue Grass anyhow. It's not like he's got only an outside shot there.

Good point, but I still don't get it. It is not like the Arkansas Derby is way below the BG, although I don't know enough about breeding to know the differnce in stud value. However, if the goal is to get into the Derby with a horse that looked impressive last out and you need a 1-2 finish, why run against horses like SS, Great Hunter and Hard Spun where a 1-2 finish is much tougher than the AD which clearly does not have talent as tough? Just a little surprised, but I am sure they have their reasons, which you may have identified.

[SOREHOOF]

I'm getting the feeling AGS may be 30-1 or so in the Derby by a lot of these comments. A lot like Bluegrass Cat. What has AGS done wrong? I'm already licking my chops. This horse will hit the board in the derby. I hope he flops next start! I will still look at Bluegrass Stakes results the same way I always have... if a horse wins, doesn't mean a thing...if a horse runs flat, doesn't mean a thing. Speed favoring becomes late runner favoring. At least the Wood is still run on old fashioned DIRT.

[pointman]

I'm not knocking AGS, Sorehoof, the question presented here is whether he can gain enough graded stakes earnings to even get into the Derby. If he does not finish 1-2 (or possibly 3) in his next start, AGS likely won't even get a chance to get into the starting gate.

[SOREHOOF]

Originally Posted by pointman

I'm not knocking AGS, Sorehoof, the question presented here is whether he can gain enough graded stakes earnings to even get into the Derby. If he does not finish 1-2 (or possibly 3) in his next start, AGS likely won't even get a chance to get into the starting gate.

That would truly be sad.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

That would truly be sad.

That is exactly my point in saying he is probably better going into the AD than the BG. I can't say that AGS is a top contender yet, but his last race was impressive and he needs the graded earnings to ensure that he gets into the Derby, unlike a SS or Hard Spun who have enough to get in today. Off his last performance he deserves to be 1 of 20, but if he flops in his next he likely will not get in the Derby.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I'm getting the feeling AGS may be 30-1 or so in the Derby by a lot of these comments. A lot like Bluegrass Cat. What has AGS done wrong? I'm already licking my chops. This horse will hit the board in the derby. I hope he flops next start! I will still look at Bluegrass Stakes results the same way I always have... if a horse wins, doesn't mean a thing...if a horse runs flat, doesn't mean a thing. Speed favoring becomes late runner favoring. At least the Wood is still run on old fashioned DIRT.

I feel the same way, but I think he runs well here. I think AGS likes the Poly...

[SOREHOOF]

I'd like to retract that FLOP remark. I agree about the AD, so long as the top dogs get the money in the other preps he might not fall too far down the ladder.