hard spun ..impressed..not really

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

When you title a thread like "not really impressed", what other context is there....Did i say you knocked him andy, no....I'll take this performance over either horse in the Tampa Bay Derby....and that's saying nothing of whether I would bet Hard Spun going forward.

Really and why? (other than I know you don't really like Street Sense)

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Really and why? (other than I know you don't really like Street Sense)

Not b/c of Street Sense at all....But b/c I liked his style today, he was patient and professional and I felt there was something left at the end. He was 3 wide essentially the whole race and won from a very difficult post in a route race there...Just liked this race by Hard Spun more than that one. Just as I've liked Great Hunter's races more than this one. You just start ranking them in your mind is all....I am a Jones fan also. Would place a horse with him in a heartbeat.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not b/c of Street Sense at all....But b/c I liked his style today, he was patient and professional and I felt there was something left at the end. He was 3 wide essentially the whole race and won from a very difficult post in a route race there...Just liked this race by Hard Spun more than that one. Just as I've liked Great Hunter's races more than this one. You just start ranking them in your mind is all....I am a Jones fan also. Would place a horse with him in a heartbeat.

The post is not a bad one at Turfway and the being 3 wide in routes is not bad either. The track plays almost opposite of a regular dirt track.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The post is not a bad one at Turfway and the being 3 wide in routes is not bad either. The track plays almost opposite of a regular dirt track.

No doubt TP poly is more fair when wide, but Hard Spun took the overland route at every point in the race---and just got the feeling he was in control from the opening bell and Pino could take it any time he wanted it....End of the day, I'm looking forward to Hard Spun's next race when I wasn't even looking forward to this one.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

No doubt TP poly is more fair when wide, but Hard Spun took the overland route at every point in the race---and just got the feeling he was in control from the opening bell and Pino could take it any time he wanted it....End of the day, I'm looking forward to Hard Spun's next race when I wasn't even looking forward to this one.

He got almost the same trip he got in the Oaklawn race. Everybody killed Pino then . Funny how circumstances can make the same ride either great or horrible.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He got almost the same trip he got in the Oaklawn race. Everybody killed Pino then . Funny how circumstances can make the same ride either great or horrible.

I just think he was flat that day at OP for whatever reason....I'll tell you, whenever I see Jones horses at Bel or Sar, they always look muscled out. Bunch of tanks running around. And from what I could see from ESPN today, he has that look.

[randallscott35]

I'm just thrilled Bullara was up the track.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I just think he was flat that day at OP for whatever reason....I'll tell you, whenever I see Jones horses at Bel or Sar, they always look muscled out. Bunch of tanks running around. And from what I could see from ESPN today, he has that look.

I think that if the Southwest was run at TP then he may have won that too.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He got almost the same trip he got in the Oaklawn race. Everybody killed Pino then . Funny how circumstances can make the same ride either great or horrible.

At Oaklawn he fired the same way he did today and hung. He did not hang today. I thought he had a lot of gunk upon scoping him at the SW. It may be the surface, but it may be the horse was fit today.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by pgardn

At Oaklawn he fired the same way he did today and hung. I thought he had a lot of gunk upon scoping him. It may be the surface, but it may be the horse was fit today.

They all have gunk when they don't fire. Or entrapped, or didn't like the track, or don't run well on cloudy days....etc....he just didn't have it that day. As i've always said, they aren't robots. The best horses have off days---except Mineshaft--LOL.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The post is not a bad one at Turfway and the being 3 wide in routes is not bad either. The track plays almost opposite of a regular dirt track.

Cannon, recheck your stats on this one. The outside posts (10,11,12) in routes are something like 6 for 100 this year... not GP bad but pretty tough. In sprints, outside seems to be better, or at least fair, however.

I was super impressed by this performance. I know the Polytrack throws a lot of indifference into people's analysis, but it's not like he hasn't run well on traditional dirt. No matter what the surface, he was 3 wide on a solid pace and ran away when asked. The field was spread out behind him- it was a good 10-12 lengths back to 4th place... the mark of a REALLY good performance.

I couldn't kill Pino for being 3-4 wide at Oaklawn. There was nowhere to go, and why sacrifice the horse in that race when there are bigger and better objectives down the road? Take it as a learning experience, pick up a small check, and try again.

[slotdirt]

I always think it's funny this time of the year to see how high or how low folks get on particular horses based on single performances.

I will say this: we haven't had a Derby winner from the Blue Grass in forever (or so it at least seems that way); this year's edition could certainly break that trend.

[jjf1031]

I was in the boat of throwing out the Arkansas race just based on it being one poor effort. However by the same token Saturdays race also needs to be taken with a grain of salt because of the fact that it was over Polytrack and I still hold the belief this horses future is on grass. And as we have seen the correlation between turf horses running strongly on Polytack has proven true (Sedgefield in the same race)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by jjf1031

I was in the boat of throwing out the Arkansas race just based on it being one poor effort. However by the same token Saturdays race also needs to be taken with a grain of salt because of the fact that it was over Polytrack and I still hold the belief this horses future is on grass. And as we have seen the correlation between turf horses running strongly on Polytack has proven true (Sedgefield in the same race)

Hard Spun has done well on dirt as well, though.

There was more than just one horse in the Lane's End with a turfy pedigree and most didn't run a lick. Why do you think that Hard Spun has a future on the turf?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by philcski

Cannon, recheck your stats on this one. The outside posts (10,11,12) in routes are something like 6 for 100 this year... not GP bad but pretty tough. In sprints, outside seems to be better, or at least fair, however.

I was super impressed by this performance. I know the Polytrack throws a lot of indifference into people's analysis, but it's not like he hasn't run well on traditional dirt. No matter what the surface, he was 3 wide on a solid pace and ran away when asked. The field was spread out behind him- it was a good 10-12 lengths back to 4th place... the mark of a REALLY good performance.

I couldn't kill Pino for being 3-4 wide at Oaklawn. There was nowhere to go, and why sacrifice the horse in that race when there are bigger and better objectives down the road? Take it as a learning experience, pick up a small check, and try again.

As of 3/24 post 10 in route races at TP was 12%.

[Payson Dave]

Hey Cannon,
Did everyone ship ok?? Are you back at Churchill?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Hey Cannon,
Did everyone ship ok?? Are you back at Churchill?

Shipped well and back at CD

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

As of 3/24 post 10 in route races at TP was 12%.

interesting... i looked at a sample size of 120 races from Sept-Dec, and the breakdown was as follows for races a mile and greater:
1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

Phil..

Would actually be 11 of 153, no?

87 with 9 horses; another 20 with 10; 25 with 11 and 21 with 12..

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by philcski

interesting... i looked at a sample size of 120 races from Sept-Dec, and the breakdown was as follows for races a mile and greater:
1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

September races should not be combined with the winter results because they track plays a little different when it is warm like Sept versus the cold weather days. At least it does in my opinion. Not that that is worth much.