Lanes End...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I think that Sports Town will be ready to go.

He barely held on in his last race....what makes you think he will be better off here?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He barely held on in his last race....what makes you think he will be better off here?

He's been working incredible and I really like his pedigree for the poly. With A City (RIP) didn't have much of a shot last year either, but this surface seems to favor longshots and Sports Town should be at big odds.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

He's been working incredible and I really like his pedigree for the poly. With A City (RIP) didn't have much of a shot last year either, but this surface seems to favor longshots and Sports Town should be at big odds.

Surfaces cannot " favor longshots ".

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Surfaces cannot " favor longshots ".

It SEEMS to.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

It SEEMS to.

Once again....that would be incorrect.

Tracks can favor speed horses, closers, inside or outside....but they cannot, by the very definition of the word, favor a horse because of its odds...whether it seems like that to you or not.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again....that would be incorrect.

Tracks can favor speed horses, closers, inside or outside....but they cannot, by the very definition of the word, favor a horse because of its odds...whether it seems like that to you or not.

Although I suppose you could make the argument that the average bettor is poorer at handicapping polytrack than other surfaces so it is more likely that a longshot wins. The surface doesn't favor them, the bettor is just poor at recognizing which horses will do well.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Although I suppose you could make the argument that the average bettor is poorer at handicapping polytrack than other surfaces so it is more likely that a longshot wins. The surface doesn't favor them, the bettor is just poor at recognizing which horses will do well.

It's possible that the odds are not quite as true on the new surface but I would guess that, minus takeout, even at Turfway, with the large sample, the horses ran very close to their odds over time....minus outlyers like regular surfaces.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again....that would be incorrect.

Tracks can favor speed horses, closers, inside or outside....but they cannot, by the very definition of the word, favor a horse because of its odds...whether it seems like that to you or not.

I understand that, Andy. Perhaps it's coincidental (let me pull out my crystal ball), but horses at longer odds seem to win there. That's all I was saying.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I understand that, Andy. Perhaps it's coincidental (let me pull out my crystal ball), but horses at longer odds seem to win there. That's all I was saying.

I don't understand what you are arguing with me.

A surface cannot selectively favor a horse because of what price it is. This is idiotic.