3YO preps; who really was the best horse in each race

[boswd]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I agree with this. I don't think the Florida crew is getting it done this year.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what Scatt Daddy and No Biz build off of that race. I still would not count No biz out. I just watched that race again just now and he was charging at the end.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by boswd

I guess we'll have to wait and see what Scatt Daddy and No Biz build off of that race. I still would not count No biz out. I just watched that race again just now and he was charging at the end.

Mirage from tiring horses in front of him.

[Cajungator26]

It looks like Scat Daddy, Stormello and Notional will have a go at eachother in the Florida Derby, so we'll see how Stormello looks then.

Adore the Gold will beat all of them like a drum.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Adore the Gold will beat all of them like a drum.

Yup. . . I'm hoping for 5-1 on him. . .

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Yup. . . I'm hoping for 5-1 on him. . .

I was just going to post the same thing...
I think he'll be the 4th or 5th betting choice, and will be a great value.
not sure if he'll beat them like a drum, but I expect a much better result (if he gets a better post this time around).

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Mirage from tiring horses in front of him.

what other type of close is there? what type of close is not a mirage?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

what other type of close is there? what type of close is not a mirage?

A horse that closes in 11 and 3 when the horse in front still runs 12 and 2....C'mon how about Jazil in the Wood last year....They collapsed in front of him.

[jjf1031]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

A horse that closes in 11 and 3 when the horse in front still runs 12 and 2....C'mon how about Jazil in the Wood last year....They collapsed in front of him.

perhaps his "late" run was also a product of him re focusing? Not sure but I guess we will find out in Wood with addition of blinkers

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by jjf1031

perhaps his "late" run was also a product of him re focusing? Not sure but I guess we will find out in Wood with addition of blinkers

What, it was the phoniest close of all time? They stopped completely!!

[JJP]

Since I started this thread, there's been quite a few more preps. Let's take a look at the more recent ones:

Wood Memorial--this one will ruffle some feathers, and maybe I'm a bit biased because I know Nobiz is the definitive "hype" horse but if you factor ground loss in at all, Any Given Saturday arguably ran a better race. He was real wide on both turns. Nobiz did run a solid race under pressure the whole way but saved every inch of ground. But when you consider the likely odds disparity between the two horses, you have to like AGS better to be in the tri in Louisville.

Florida Derby---I wrote a thread about how I thought Beyer blew Scat Daddy's number. I originally gave him a 105 but have adjusted to 103; still 5 pts better than Beyer had it. The pace was solid and he won anyways.

Illinois Derby---this race was a product of both a crawlfest pace and a rail bias. Reporting for Duty did a very good job closing on the very slow pace, although he was hugging the rail to do it. Still, I came away more impressed by him than w/Cowtown Cat.

Ark Derby----this couldn't be more obvious. Curlin has been much the best in all three of his starts. He will be favored. Thought he was more impressive than Smarty Jones was at OP three years ago.

Blue Grass----with the incredibly slow pace, its amazing that Dominican outclosed Street Sense to win. No doubt he ran the superior race but all three of his wins are on Poly so it could be a giant leap of faith to use him at CD. But the price will still be very big and he hasn't done much wrong recently.

SA Derby---fast pace; King of the Roxy ran a very big race to do all the work and was narrowly beaten while the winner had the good pace setup.

Historically, the "best in last race" angle has been very strong and has uncovered some live longshots winners.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by JJP

Florida Derby---I wrote a thread about how I thought Beyer blew Scat Daddy's number. I originally gave him a 105 but have adjusted to 103; still 5 pts better than Beyer had it. The pace was solid and he won anyways.

Huh? Scatt Daddy's a closer. . .

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

A horse that closes in 11 and 3 when the horse in front still runs 12 and 2....C'mon how about Jazil in the Wood last year....They collapsed in front of him.

What about Jazil? He closed in the Wood, yes. The amount of the close was fairly large due to the race pace set-up, so what.

All a late close is is a pace differential at the end of the race, regardless of the speed of the leader.

The fact that No Biz was tiring less than the others and looked to have something left was not a mirage.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

What about Jazil? He closed in the Wood, yes. The amount of the close was fairly large due to the race pace set-up, so what.

All a late close is is a pace differential at the end of the race, regardless of the speed of the leader.

The fact that No Biz was tiring less than the others and looked to have something left was not a mirage.

My point Jim, and you've become quite disagreeable lately, is that all closes are not created equal. That's it.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

My point Jim, and you've become quite disagreeable lately, is that all closes are not created equal. That's it.

And my point Randall, is that of course all closes are not equal, but none of them are phoney or a mirage. They are what they are, and sometimes what you might call a phony closer ends up wearing the Roses.