Question, Seriously

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Turf horses don't bounce, they run very close groupings

Big efforts have to take something out of a horse, they aren't machines

So let me get this straight....horses don't bounce because of physical exertion specifically....they bounce only from physical exertion over dirt.

Good to know.

One quick question, as hunt season is just around the corner, what about the jumps....do they throw a monkey wrench into the equation?

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So let me get this straight....horses don't bounce because of physical exertion specifically....they bounce only from physical exertion over dirt.

Good to know.

One quick question, as hunt season is just around the corner, what about the jumps....do they throw a monkey wrench into the equation?

Look how dirt races are run compared to Turf races, there's no question that it takes more out of a horse to run on Dirt than Turf...It's not only the surface it's how the race is run, not to mention a harder surface...

Wouldn't you think it would be more demanding to come flying out of the gate running gate to wire, than loping around and laying it down for the finish line...

The Sheets show this time and time again, most turf horses run tight groupings...

I don't know why you have to resort to being a smart a$$, I guess you know all and everyone else does not a valid opinion. Sorry, didn't mean to question "the untouchable" on the board...

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not being a smart azz....I'm further exposing the BS associated with " the sheets " propaganda involving the supposed " bounce theory ". Since the sheets don't believe that pace has any relevance, they therefore do not take race shape into account, and thus have absolutely no leg to stand on regarding why horses run well on one day and less well the next. They simply say " oh they bounced " as opposed to intelligently analyzing a race. I am not denegrading their numbers, whether I use them or not ( I don't ), but I firmly believe they have disqualified themselves from any sound determination of WHY horses run well or poorly in relation to their normal efforts.

Einstein was three wide on one turn, four wide on another, and five wide on the other, all while being way too close to a pace that collapsed. If one's logic doesn't say that he didn't exert enormous effort in that performance, and simply says " it was turf so he won't bounce ", then they are not analyzing the races as they occur and fitting results to flawed theories.

The " bounce theory " is yet another indefensible short cut that helps horseplayers lose....not win. Keep following it, and not taking races apart, it's all the better for me. But, please, don't expect me to sit idly by while you espouse its indefensible foolishness.

[blackthroatedwind]

And furthermore, while I understand what you are saying about turf racing relative to dirt racing, and do see your points, there are too many contradictions for me to just agree with you.

Here's an example....Street Sense in the BC Juvenile. To be perfectly honest, his performance was almost exactly like that of a turf horse you described. He sat back off a fast pace and only came running at the end as the race collapsed behind him. yet, I had to read countless posts from people who believe in the sheet's theories, that he simply ran too fast to ever recover. Now, perhaps you too don't agree with this nonsense, but my problem is that Street Sense was thrown into the same enormous bounce box, instead of simply having his performance analyzed for what it was....a very nice effort by a horse dramatically aided by both bias ( the rail ) and extremely favorable race dynamics.

My problem isn't so much that I completely disagree with their theories...it's that they are used as a VERY wide umbrella. There is simply too much going on in racing to use such a big box to define SO many performances.

[golfer]

Andy, how in the world did you come up with that horse in the 8th at Gulfstream? That horse cost me the late pick 4. I spread with 3 horses in that race, but never considered the winner.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by golfer

Andy, how in the world did you come up with that horse in the 8th at Gulfstream? That horse cost me the late pick 4. I spread with 3 horses in that race, but never considered the winner.

If I told you I would have to kill you.

To be honest, a friend of mine who I respect liked her, so I threw her in. I was originally only using the 3 and 4.

[golfer]

You owe that person!! Bravo closing from dead last, basically never going further out than the 2 path, never getting in any trouble...Amazing!! Congrats, that was a nice pick 4 (it probably would have been a nice one with the 3 or 4 in that race as well, although we would have brought the price down a bit by both having it).

[Grits]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If I told you I would have to kill you.

To be honest, a friend of mine who I respect liked her, so I threw her in. I was originally only using the 3 and 4.

I am exceedingly glad this was asked, as the same question was burning a hole in my brain. Though we know not what this friend liked, such friends are a gift.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by golfer

Andy, how in the world did you come up with that horse in the 8th at Gulfstream? That horse cost me the late pick 4. I spread with 3 horses in that race, but never considered the winner.

thats nothing, i went five deep and still lost, killing my pk four.

nothing burns me more than getting beat in a race that I'm going wide in.

[golfer]

Jim, I even used the 55-1 8 horse, Le Cordon Bleu... which seemed like a good idea until mid stretch..

[Pointg5]

It's only indefensible because you don't believe it, I believe in it and have benefitted from it, it doesn't always work out, but more often than not, horses do bounce. Turf horses tend to bounce less often, it's not a cut and dry rule, but show me something that is in this game...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

It's only indefensible because you don't believe it, I believe in it and have benefitted from it, it doesn't always work out, but more often than not, horses do bounce. Turf horses tend to bounce less often, it's not a cut and dry rule, but show me something that is in this game...

It's just regression to the mean. If a horse runs a race where he runs better than he does on average chances are he'll regress to the mean next out. It is not a rule that any horse that runs a big race though will bounce which the bounce theorists would make you believe. Sometimes it is just an improving horse that will keep improving.