Question, Seriously

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was pretty impressive. Not sure what to make of him at this point.

He's one that I always expect to lose, but seems to come running no matter what.

With that said, obviously his style poses a problem heading towards the Derby, as traffic can kill his chances in an instant.

I also don't see a TON of speedball horses heading for the Derby yet. Were this shaping up like Derbies past, I would be inclined to love him based on a total pace meltdown, but at least at this point on the trail I'm not seeing a Sinister Minister/Keyed Entry type of pace meltdown. It may change, but in that kind of race his style could have been very effective given the speed at which he picks horses off, but this year (thus far) doesn't seem to be setting the table for a horse coming from 17th place a half mile out.

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

Horses that make big sweeping runs almost always look better than they are. And, as you said, with his style he opens himself up to trouble. Deep closers are rarely Derby winners.

I still don't see him winning at 1 1/4, but I have never been a fan of this horse, and while he was better than I truly expected today I am far from sold.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Horses that make big sweeping runs almost always look better than they are. And, as you said, with his style he opens himself up to trouble. Deep closers are rarely Derby winners.

I still don't see him winning at 1 1/4, but I have never been a fan of this horse, and while he was better than I truly expected today I am far from sold.

I pretty much always think he is going to lose. I've never been on the bandwagon, though I might slightly be on it now.

With that said, I think that without the antics on the backstretch by Ketchikan and Co., that that one could have made a far better showing and actually had a shot at the win. When it all boils down, I was more impressed with that one than CQ, but it's hard to really knock CQ today because he got the job done with room to spare and looked good doing it.

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't disagree that his effort, especially being so lightly raced, was OK. Why was he on the front end...in fast fractions no less?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't disagree that his effort, especially being so lightly raced, was OK. Why was he on the front end...in fast fractions no less?

Not sure, but he looked real bad pulling towards the front. It wasn't a pretty thing to see when he took the lead on the backstretch. From mid-turn to mid-backstretch the horse was a total mess and totally out of his jock's control. It was awful to watch and in retrospect to think about the energy wasted on such antics.

[ArlJim78]

I've been a fan from the beginning because CQ has on several occasions shown a burst, something very athletic. With that said i am in no way sold that with another 3/16 in heavy traffic he will have what it takes. The only reason I'm keeping an open mind relative to CQ and the derby is because of a lack of real standouts amongst the competition this year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I've been a fan from the beginning because CQ has on several occasions shown a burst, something very athletic. With that said i am in no way sold that with another 3/16 in heavy traffic he will have what it takes. The only reason I'm keeping an open mind relative to CQ and the derby is because of a lack of real standouts amongst the competition this year.

I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

Yeah, speaking of Ramon, the guy showed patience and some balls.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

Well obviously. How Sweet He Is ran second last, right? Clearly it was a strange race if he wasn't bounding down the track to get the win by a nose.

Forget it ever happened.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Well obviously. How Sweet He Is ran second last, right? Clearly it was a strange race if he wasn't bounding down the track to get the win by a nose.

Forget it ever happened.

He was second to last. Please....you made me nervous for a second.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was second to last. Please....you made me nervous for a second.

Also known as barely out the of money.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

He's one that I always expect to lose, but seems to come running no matter what.

With that said, obviously his style poses a problem heading towards the Derby, as traffic can kill his chances in an instant.

I also don't see a TON of speedball horses heading for the Derby yet. Were this shaping up like Derbies past, I would be inclined to love him based on a total pace meltdown, but at least at this point on the trail I'm not seeing a Sinister Minister/Keyed Entry type of pace meltdown. It may change, but in that kind of race his style could have been very effective given the speed at which he picks horses off, but this year (thus far) doesn't seem to be setting the table for a horse coming from 17th place a half mile out.

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

I admit I've always liked this guy, but certainly understand the skeptism of others about his derby chances... especially considering his running style. But so far, I don't see any other horses seperating themselves from this 3yo class.. so my attitude is he's as good as any i've seen.