Derby horses

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Watch the 2006 Hopeful against Scat Daddy.

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

This race often gets discredited but all I can ask is what more should the horse have done? Yeah the pace was fast and the setup was perfect for him, and then he did EXACTLY what he was supposed to do, exploding from the back of the pack and winning easy. Say what you want about any of his other races, but how could this be an overrated performance?

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

Relative to what?

I will have to watch it again but it didn't seem to me like anyone ran particularly well.

Except, of course, Johannesburg Star.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

Considering he was completely overmatched I think he ran the best of the rest. He'll fit very nicely in a second level allowance race at GP.

NT

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

I think a little ground can be given to Adore the Gold since it was his first start around two turns and I think he will improve quite a bit.

As far as your statement on Circular Quay, I think everyone fell in love with his quick late moves in the Bashford Manor and Hopeful and that's what earned him favoritism in the BC Juvenile. Forgotten among it all was that the pace scenario was perfect and those raecs were contested around one turn. However, based on what I said before about the Hopeful in particular, didn't he do exactly what he was supposed to do, given the way the situation unfolded?

I think Circular Quay will eventually make his living around one turn. He has shown the style thus far that would be great at 7 furlongs.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

He is a closing sprinter at best who got tremendous setups in both of his stakes wins.

However, he did have significant trouble in the Risen Star, so he deserves a pass for that. His BC Juvie was weak, as he was not nearly as wide on the turn as some seem to believe, and as DrugS has pointed out numerous times was simply a beneficiary of a huge pace that collapsed. He lost by ten lengths for God's sake.

His second in the Breeder's Futurity was flat out dreadful. He had a picture perfect trip and did next to no running. The first and third horses were significantly better than him that day.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He is a closing sprinter at best who got tremendous setups in both of his stakes wins.

However, he did have significant trouble in the Risen Star, so he deserves a pass for that. His BC Juvie was weak, as he was not nearly as wide on the turn as some seem to believe, and as DrugS has pointed out numerous times was simply a beneficiary of a huge pace that collapsed. He lost by ten lengths for God's sake.

His second in the Breeder's Futurity was flat out dreadful. He had a picture perfect trip and did next to no running. The first and third horses were significantly better than him that day.

I think we agree on what he will most likely become and I think it is worth noting that the Breeders' Futurity was clearly a very strong race in terms of competitors. I'm not much of a "key race" guy, but I think that one was pretty good.

NT

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i agree with him because i saw his race at saratoga, he got a DREAM SET UP...
and besides that he has not really done a thing in my opinion, his bc juvenile race was not that impressive

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think a little ground can be given to Adore the Gold since it was his first start around two turns and I think he will improve quite a bit.

As far as your statement on Circular Quay, I think everyone fell in love with his quick late moves in the Bashford Manor and Hopeful and that's what earned him favoritism in the BC Juvenile. Forgotten among it all was that the pace scenario was perfect and those raecs were contested around one turn. However, based on what I said before about the Hopeful in particular, didn't he do exactly what he was supposed to do, given the way the situation unfolded?

I think Circular Quay will eventually make his living around one turn. He has shown the style thus far that would be great at 7 furlongs.

NT

Speaking of which, Run alex Run, the 3rd place finisher in the Bashford (and maybe the favorite?) makes his first 3yo start at Oaklawn tomorrow.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

I have to agree with Adore the Gold....he ran well, especially considering his starting post.

I think no one can argue that Circular Quay is by far the most polarizing 3-YO out there. One way or another, everyone seems to have a pretty strong opinion on him!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by deltaforce97

I have to agree with Adore the Gold....he ran well, especially considering his starting post.

I think no one can argue that Circular Quay is by far the most polarizing 3-YO out there. One way or another, everyone seems to have a pretty strong opinion on him!!

He may be polarizing.....but where's the beef? If he wasn't trained by Todd Pletcher, which is to his advantage I guess, NOBODY would be talking about him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I actually think a strong comparison could be made between Hard Spun's loss in the Southwest Stakes and Giacomo's loss in the Sham Stakes.

Both horses had outside draws, against pretty shaky fields, as clear-cut favorites. Both horses were taken out of their preferred running style, and both horses got hung up very wide (4-to-5 wide) on both turns, over tracks that had both been playing very kindly to inside-speed.

Because of the way the track was playing, Giacomo was gunned by Mike Smith to seek out a good tactical position, he never got one, but he was hung up very wide into the 1st turn, while just one length off of a 46 and change pace. He ended up finishing a competitive 3rd and running a 98 Beyer, when he had ABSOLUTLEY every reason in the world to spit the bit with the trip he got...considering what style a horse he was.

However, everyone made a big deal about him losing to the shaky sprinter Going Wild, who was stretching out 3 furlongs in distance, as well as the maiden Papi Chullo, who closed up the rail for 2nd...and was the only horse to ever pass him in a race leading into the KY Derby.

Looking back, I understand why I had such excitement for that performance of Giacomo's. But, as bad as Going Wild and Papi Chullo would become, I understand why that performance was being so strongly held against Giacomo.

Hard Spun earned a number 3 points less, a 95, and was beaten by some horses who might become every bit the turkeys that Going Wild and Papi Chullo were....however, there is every reason to expect marked improvement from him.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

underated, nobiz fountain of youth... everyone is down on this horse now, he gets beat less then 2 lengths, he sat close to a fast pace, he had alot of issues in the race, he raced green, and still seemed like he was coming on again late




overated, drums of thunders holly bull, everyone was so high on this horse, he got a fast early pace in the fountain of youth, and was no where late

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

underated, nobiz fountain of youth... everyone is down on this horse now, he gets beat less then 2 lengths, he sat close to a fast pace, he had alot of issues in the race, he raced green, and still seemed like he was coming on again late




overated, drums of thunders holly bull, everyone was so high on this horse, he got a fast early pace in the fountain of youth, and was no where late

well racing "green" isn't going to cut it in May. Is he going to learn or isn't he?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

What derby prep race for 3 yo's was deeper than the FOY? Garbage... thats just nuts.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pgardn

What derby prep race for 3 yo's was deeper than the FOY? Garbage... thats just nuts.

What does " deeper " mean?

The simple fact is the race was barely faster than a NW1X that was won by one horse with real trouble and the second finisher moved VERY prematurely. I don't care what the names of the competitors are. I care how the race was run....and that was slowly and unimpressively.

If you analyze races before they are run, which is what someone who thinks a race is a good one because of the names of the contestants does, you will get yourself in a lot of trouble in the future.

Sorry, but the vast majority of races that result in blanket finishes are suspect. It is very rare that a bunch of horses ran particularly well.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What does " deeper " mean?

The simple fact is the race was barely faster than a NW1X that was won by one horse with real trouble and the second finisher moved VERY prematurely. I don't care what the names of the competitors are. I care how the race was run....and that was slowly and unimpressively.

If you analyze races before they are run, which is what someone who thinks a race is a good one because of the names of the contestants does, you will get yourself in a lot of trouble in the future.

Sorry, but the vast majority of races that result in blanket finishes are suspect. It is very rare that a bunch of horses ran particularly well.

That was blazing fast. 1:09 4/5 at 6f, after a very fast first 4... and it got hotter than hell later at the track. That was a great show by at the very least 4 horses. People think Nobiz looks bad, I thought it was a very gutsy performance that showed the amazing ability of this horse. He stopped and started 3 diff. times. Adore the Gold put a tough effort in. And the leader until the finish, pure guts. The track changed drastically. Why not compare this to Corinthians run then if you wanna use times, it was hot by then also... This was a good race. The best prep so far.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I pretty much agree with BTW about the race....

But I think it's fair of pgarden to add that the race was run at a crazy-fast pace for 3-year-olds to be running at, going that distance, this time of year.

I felt the rail was very live last Saturday...and that does take away from Stormello's performance....however, he set that torrid pace and only got beat a lip.

Scat Daddy was the most aided by the pace, but had to overcome racing wide over a track where that was not where the best footing was.

I'd say Nobiz is the only horse in this race with any kind of realistic Derby chance...as he simply didn't have a good trip, and continues to race very green and unprofessional. He's running out of time though....he needs to get his act together fast.