FG 4

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Which in this case, was the logical property that states:

1.) I can out-handicap any horseplayer in the United States

then

2.) I did not have the longshot winner

therefore

3.) Obviously, someone was cheating.

It was pure uncalled for folly in every sense of the word.

BigD. Like the others in this thread, I get a good feeling from you, so don't interpret this as an attack on you in any way.

I know you weren't here for Derby Trail's Best Thread Ever, so here it is if you'd like to check it out. The numbers against the claim of fixing a race are positively damning. Who risks their entire livelihood in order to cheat, just to get a horse to improve roughly a length and a half off their previous best race ever? It wasn't necessary. So naturally, you've got to cut many of us some slack for not being willing to just follow the lemming off the cliff in order to justify a longshot winning a race which in retrospect, he had every right to be a competitor in to begin with.

I hope to have time to review the Best Thread Ever soon. Thanks for the link.

I agree that it's faulty logic to say that if a longshot wins, and you didn't have him, someone was cheating. We're all going to tear up far more tickets than we cash, and I consider myself lucky to score on a longshot now and again.

But, you know, by definition, cheaters cheat. If a rider is so brazen that he will hide his horse in a fog bank while the others complete a lap and then gallop down the stretch to cross under the wire "first," all for the sake of the winner's share of a purse that was probably in the neighborhood of $2500 total, I wouldn't put it past him to carry a buzzer in a race that carried a total purse in excess of $40,000. Which certainly isn't to say he did, but I am not willing to close my mind to the possibility.

I agree that fixed races -- in the sense that there's a conspiracy to hold some entrants back so as to allow an agreed upon entrant to win -- are extremely rare. However, as shown by virtually every NASCAR race, individuals will occasionally try to gain an advantage over the competition by illegitimate means.