southwest stakes 2/19

[slotdirt]

He's obviously not a superhorse, but if this were any other horse in just about any other race, we'd be talking about the miserable trip, getting hung outside, and the ride by Pino. As it is, folks are dismissing - prematurely, in my opinion - a horse because of one off the board effort in an ungraded race. I think Hard Spun will be back.

[slotdirt]

P.s. It's so hard to tell what any connection is looking for from a particular race. It didn't even look like Pino was trying, to be honest.

[The Bid]

Tueflesberg laid the 100 egg

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

He's obviously not a superhorse, but if this were any other horse in just about any other race, we'd be talking about the miserable trip, getting hung outside, and the ride by Pino. As it is, folks are dismissing - prematurely, in my opinion - a horse because of one off the board effort in an ungraded race. I think Hard Spun will be back.

amazing how many horses get dismissed after a loss, and amazing how few make it to the derby without a loss!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

He's obviously not a superhorse, but if this were any other horse in just about any other race, we'd be talking about the miserable trip, getting hung outside, and the ride by Pino. As it is, folks are dismissing - prematurely, in my opinion - a horse because of one off the board effort in an ungraded race. I think Hard Spun will be back.

I disagree. If this were any other race I certainly think the trip would not even be discussed because it was routine for a horse with the nine hole. We all just see races differently. I just did not see a miserable trip for Hard Spun. Sure the first turn was less than ideal but I thought Pino guided him into a reasonable position without asking him for much on the first turn. From my viewpoint, the second half of the first turn Hard Spun was not more than 2-3 wide. Going up the backstretch he stayed wide but there really was not an option and beside that is not where you lose ground on the straight. Moving into the second turn he looked to be 3-4 wide and he started to gain ground on the leader until he just flattened out. If you think its because Pino wasn't trying thats up to you. I don't think its what the trainer wanted to see, namely to be passed in the stretch by Officer Rocket and Forty Grams.

Of course no one has to give up on a horse after one race, and he could come back to run a better race next time.

My only point is that according to the numbers that I use, his race in the Southwest was only slightly worse than his first route. The increase in difficulty of the trip and the higher level of competition cost him a bit. In my view the race he ran yesterday fairly accurately reflects the current level of talent for this horse.
.

[Sightseek]

Anyone else amused by the fact that the trainer coming off suspension trains "Forty Grams"

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Anyone else amused by the fact that the trainer coming off suspension trains "Forty Grams"

Amused?
Nope.
Some get caught, some don't.
Caution is the operative word.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Teuflesberg obviously is not going to win the Kentucky Derby---and will be overrated next time out off this win.

He was basically allowed to dilly dally on a rather uncontested lead, through very soft fractions! By comparison, the wire-to-wire winner of race #3, which was an ugly bottom level condition claiming race, set faster fractions than Teuflesberg did.

Teuflesberg's final time of 1:38.20 for one mile---also doesn't look so impressive when you consider a maiden sprinter, off a five month plus layoff, ran 1:09.92 an hour or so earlier on the card. Basically, running a quarter mile less, in 28.28 seconds less.

I wouldn't consider him a top 25 Derby candidate right now

[The Bid]

How many 3yos running right now have laid the 100 ball going two turns?

Hes earned a little respect. He may not win the Derby, but hes much better than people give him credit for. If this horse were in the hands of Pletcher, or Zito, or any other big namer he would be a top 5 Derby horse.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Bid

How many 3yos running right now have laid the 100 ball going two turns?

Hes earned a little respect. He may not win the Derby, but hes much better than people give him credit for. If this horse were in the hands of Pletcher, or Zito, or any other big namer he would be a top 5 Derby horse.

I really doubt that...

[smartyalex]

Originally Posted by The Bid

How many 3yos running right now have laid the 100 ball going two turns?

Hes earned a little respect. He may not win the Derby, but hes much better than people give him credit for. If this horse were in the hands of Pletcher, or Zito, or any other big namer he would be a top 5 Derby horse.

AGREE 100%

[smartyalex]

Originally Posted by The Bid

How many 3yos running right now have laid the 100 ball going two turns?

Hes earned a little respect. He may not win the Derby, but hes much better than people give him credit for. If this horse were in the hands of Pletcher, or Zito, or any other big namer he would be a top 5 Derby horse.

AGREE 100%

[smartyalex]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

also doesn't look so impressive when you consider a maiden sprinter, off a five month plus layoff, ran 1:09.92 an hour or so earlier on the card. Basically, running a quarter mile less, in 28.28 seconds less.

This Lukas TC nominated eight-length maiden winner also earned a Beyer Figure of 107.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by smartyalex

This Lukas TC nominated eight-length maiden winner also earned a Beyer Figure of 107.

Wow. That's impressive.

[hailrazer]

Old news now, but here's my 2 cents. I tossed Hard Spun due to value issues. Looked like 4 horses that would love to have the lead if they were allowed to run 23 and 47 flat. Not that fast for Oaklawn at a mile. Tossed Tuefelsburg and Starbase because I thought they needed an easy lead and wouldn't get it. Had just about everyone else except the 2 who was a several notches below. Loved Pletchers horse just because he sent him. Race was over after the half and I cussed the jockeys on other supposed early speed for the next 30 minutes....

IMO, only horse that ran a race to be excited about was Officer Rocket. Had traffic problems thru the 2nd turn and weaved thru stragglers in the stretch while gaining on the winner even with the soft pace. Tuefelsburg ran a nice race, but I don't see that race putting him into TC races contention. Still, a nice horse that is making someone look smart.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

Amused?
Nope.
Some get caught, some don't.
Caution is the operative word.

How about they shouldn't be doing it in the first place?

[ManilaRose]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I disagree. If this were any other race I certainly think the trip would not even be discussed because it was routine for a horse with the nine hole. We all just see races differently. I just did not see a miserable trip for Hard Spun. Sure the first turn was less than ideal but I thought Pino guided him into a reasonable position without asking him for much on the first turn. From my viewpoint, the second half of the first turn Hard Spun was not more than 2-3 wide. Going up the backstretch he stayed wide but there really was not an option and beside that is not where you lose ground on the straight. Moving into the second turn he looked to be 3-4 wide and he started to gain ground on the leader until he just flattened out. If you think its because Pino wasn't trying thats up to you. I don't think its what the trainer wanted to see, namely to be passed in the stretch by Officer Rocket and Forty Grams.

Of course no one has to give up on a horse after one race, and he could come back to run a better race next time.

My only point is that according to the numbers that I use, his race in the Southwest was only slightly worse than his first route. The increase in difficulty of the trip and the higher level of competition cost him a bit. In my view the race he ran yesterday fairly accurately reflects the current level of talent for this horse.
.

I couldn't agree more. In my opinion the trip in no way makes this a good effort. If the problem was that Hard Spun needs the lead then his Derby hopes are over anyway. I was curious myself to see the speed figures and suspected they wouldn't be alot lower than his last race at FG when he ran the final 1/4 in a very pedestrian time. Maybe he'll come back strong in his next and prove me wrong but I believe what we saw on Monday wasn't as far as most think from what we saw at FG.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ManilaRose

I couldn't agree more. In my opinion the trip in no way makes this a good effort. If the problem was that Hard Spun needs the lead then his Derby hopes are over anyway. I was curious myself to see the speed figures and suspected they wouldn't be alot lower than his last race at FG when he ran the final 1/4 in a very pedestrian time. Maybe he'll come back strong in his next and prove me wrong but I believe what we saw on Monday wasn't as far as most think from what we saw at FG.

He ran a 95 Beyer in both races.

[Dunbar]

Is there anywhere to see a replay of the Southwest?

--Dunbar

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Is there anywhere to see a replay of the Southwest?

--Dunbar

yeah, go to rockportharbor.com, click on stable roster, click on hard spun and you can watch the video from there.