FG 4

BTW I read sometime back where you posted that Pat Day was NOT a great rider! With that said, no need to apologize for insulting me.

BSpencer: I cannot comment on your grasp of horizontal wagering and can only offer my own opinion. Although Ketchikan was the only horse I could have played in that leg, he did not have to win. I was much more confident in the other legs admittedly because of spreading. Most pick 4 players and almost all pick six players outspend their competition as their edge; my approach is to out handicap them. Empirically, singling the favorite will clear the race some thirty percent of the time, and taking the top two selections some fifty percent.

Stud: From a previous post where you listed the turf rail placements at your track I assume your "meet" is Calder. I certainly agree if you do not have a winning ticket in your "first" $24 the law of diminishing returns kicks in. Your tenets make sense and all 'cappers have them. I select a day to play, and play regardless of conviction. In fact probably playing FG Tuesday which would be the first Tuesday play since election day last year. Among my favorite tenets would be to look for a solid favorite to single! Perhaps some 70 percent of races are decided at the time of entry and the multi-race player can capitalize here. Also a change in the turf rail can make a horse highly unlikely even if they look very solid on paper. I also will spread or single in any leg.
Lastly I as well have a thick skin and do not rue tough beats very long. BBB

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

BTW I read sometime back where you posted that Pat Day was NOT a great rider! With that said, no need to apologize for insulting me.

BSpencer: I cannot comment on your grasp of horizontal wagering and can only offer my own opinion. Although Ketchikan was the only horse I could have played in that leg, he did not have to win. I was much more confident in the other legs admittedly because of spreading. Most pick 4 players and almost all pick six players outspend their competition as their edge; my approach is to out handicap them. Empirically, singling the favorite will clear the race some thirty percent of the time, and taking the top two selections some fifty percent.

Stud: From a previous post where you listed the turf rail placements at your track I assume your "meet" is Calder. I certainly agree if you do not have a winning ticket in your "first" $24 the law of diminishing returns kicks in. Your tenets make sense and all 'cappers have them. I select a day to play, and play regardless of conviction. In fact probably playing FG Tuesday which would be the first Tuesday play since election day last year. Among my favorite tenets would be to look for a solid favorite to single! Perhaps some 70 percent of races are decided at the time of entry and the multi-race player can capitalize here. Also a change in the turf rail can make a horse highly unlikely even if they look very solid on paper. I also will spread or single in any leg.
Lastly I as well have a thick skin and do not rue tough beats very long. BBB

You seem to have a bit of interest, so I'll respond and give you a few insights but it'll be my last response to you as your tone is too condescending, your insults are too veiled and your compliments are far too backhanded for my taste.

1. Turf Rail Placement. I've heard people give anecdotal opinions for years and years, generally that the further out the rail, the kinder to speed. It's overrated at the least, and plain wrong, at least on 7/8 courses for non-chute 2-turn races based on my 4-year review. The further out the rail, the closer to the first turn and - across all classes - the faster the pace. There is a very, very modest correlation to rail placement and speed kindness for chute and sprint races but it's so small I think it's meaningless to be honest. Maybe FG or CD is different from where I play, but I'd be surprised.

2. Diminishing Returns after the "first" $24. Wrong imo. It depends on the way the races set up. If you 'shoehorn' yourself like this and never adapt to take advantage of how you perceive the races set up, good luck to you, as I think you will surely need it.

3. If you choose to play a p-4 on a certain day and do so regardless of conviction using just a short ticket strategy, good luck. By any definition of the phrase, you are playing on the most recreational basis possible, That's ok, but you cannot expect to be taken seriously.

4. Don't read too much into my fondness of short tickets. I played 125 days of Calder last year. Two p-4's a day. I played 80 of them. Of the 80 I played, 25 were short tickets.

5. I suppose I'm happy for you and "everyone" else at your other "forum" who all had that $25 winner. All I can say with conviction is that if everyone at Derby Trail had the same horse, it would not have paid $25.

Good luck.

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree with your last post ( probably all of it ) but specifically about the ticket sizes. I wasn't trying to say you can never hit Pick-4s with small tickets, and obviously like you I try to play the one or two offered at whatever track I'm playing, so certainly I sometimes play in the $24-$36 range ( and have even miraculously hit a few of these ). I was just trying to say that LIMITING yourself to that size can't work over time. I guess it feels like we agree.

STS, early this year, around the opening of Gulfstream, longtime handicapper and writer, Dick Powell wrote a column that had a great deal to say about rail placement. This was rail placement particular to Gulfstream. He had kept records throughout last year's meet, and maybe prior, as well. I'm not sure.

Anyway, if I recall correctly, he indicated that the rail, when placed at 0-12 feet out would favor inside speed horses. When the rail was set outward at 82-84 feet, this was a time when horses racing wide and closing were more favorable.

I found it all interesting and helpful. www.TSN may still have a copy of his column.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Grits

STS, early this year, around the opening of Gulfstream, longtime handicapper and writer, Dick Powell wrote a column that had a great deal to say about rail placement. This was rail placement particular to Gulfstream. He had kept records throughout last year's meet, and maybe prior, as well. I'm not sure.

Anyway, if I recall correctly, he indicated that the rail, when placed at 0-12 feet out would favor inside speed horses. When the rail was set outward at 82-84 feet, this was a time when horses racing wide and closing were more favorable.

I found it all interesting and helpful. www.TSN may still have a copy of his column.

I believe that that is how Steve explained it to me at Gulfstream as well. It makes sense, when the rail is at 0 feet, the turns are tighter and your speed is going to hang on better. When it is out further, your turns are less tight and will give a more fair chance to closers and mid-pack runners.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Grits

STS, early this year, around the opening of Gulfstream, longtime handicapper and writer, Dick Powell wrote a column that had a great deal to say about rail placement. This was rail placement particular to Gulfstream. He had kept records throughout last year's meet, and maybe prior, as well. I'm not sure.

Anyway, if I recall correctly, he indicated that the rail, when placed at 0-12 feet out would favor inside speed horses. When the rail was set outward at 82-84 feet, this was a time when horses racing wide and closing were more favorable.

I found it all interesting and helpful. www.TSN may still have a copy of his column.

Thanks, Grits.

Someone told me about his article and I'll try to read it sometime. I'd be surprised a bit I guess, but not overly so if what you mentioned is the case. To be honest, I love the racing at Gulfstream but not wagering there. I bet $10-$25 a race at Gulf 2-3 days a week. Hopefully, my money at Gulf is slightly less "Dead" than average, so I'm donating $1-$2 a race. I can live with that as a fair price for seeing good racing in great weather. In any event, I'm far from being any kind of expert at Gulfstream.

A couple things...

Most important, there is a world of difference between grass racing on a 1-mile course vs a 7/8 with a chute. As far as rail placement on a 1-mile course, I agree wider turns hurt speed but I also believe the rail-out shorter run to the first turn hurts off-pace horses as well trip-wise. Personally, I think in these shorter 2-turn races, speed plays more poorly in rail-out races due to the increased pace that occurs as jockeys try to get over before the turn comes up. To me, intuitively, this all ads up to trip as a bigger factor in shorter 2-turn grace races, but that's true anyways, imo.

On a 7/8 course, the dynamic of greater value is post in chute races as well as run to the first turn combined with running style. I looked at several hundred Calder turf races over four years and found very few meaningful results based solely on rail placement. Here's a few things. My guess is that other 7/8 courses with chutes would share the same results but I'm not sure:
1. Inside post is incredibly important in chute races, more so with rail-out.
2. Rail out is good for speed at 5F. But it's a small sample.
3. Rail out is bad for speed at 7.5F (shortest 2-turn distance)

But none of this is very surprising since these are the prevailing trends at these distances.

F = Front = Within 1 length of lead at the two main points of call
P = Press = Within from 1.25 to 5 lengths at both points
C = Close = Other

Here are the overall win %s by running style/distance:
Sprint: F= 38% P= 48% C= 14%
Chute: F= 17% P= 41% C= 42%
7.5 F (Straight): F= 12% P= 35% C= 53%

This is all limited-use information aside from having some sense of what kind of running style and post position benefits horses at different distances on a 7/8 track. But when you play a track with few shippers, I think it's very useful, especially when horses change distances and posts.

As always, trip and pace are the biggest factors when I look at betting any grass race. Rail placement is way down on my list.

Good luck.

Thank you so much for elaborating more, STS. A great post.

All things equal, when the turf rail is out the pace is slower! Horses run slower on turns. The slower the pace, the better chance speed has of holding.

Conversely, when the race is on the hedge the starting gate is moved up the stretch. The pace is faster (horses run faster on straights) and favors closers. BBB

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

BSpencer: I cannot comment on your grasp of horizontal wagering and can only offer my own opinion. Although Ketchikan was the only horse I could have played in that leg, he did not have to win. I was much more confident in the other legs admittedly because of spreading. Most pick 4 players and almost all pick six players outspend their competition as their edge; my approach is to out handicap them. Empirically, singling the favorite will clear the race some thirty percent of the time, and taking the top two selections some fifty percent.

Obviously using two or more horses in a race in all likelihood will give one a better chance of surviving a leg, but most certainly any single is the strongest individual horse opinion a player has, otherwise it's tough to defend the play.

You won't " out handicap " them. It's a cute concept, but an immature one, and sadly they will probably " out handicap " and out spend you. Your competition is not nearly as weak as you may presume. The sooner a player figures out he's not trying to prove anything, and realizes playing the game is about making money, the sooner he will have a chance to actually achieve the right goal.

I may be more acquainted than most of you with bellsbendoy (BBB), with whom I have corresponded occasionally the last three years or so. BBB does not need me to speak up for him, but here are my two cents worth anyway.

All I want to say is, when BBB says that his approach is to "out handicap them," don't assume he can't do it. He has posted with some regularity on the Fair Grounds / Starting Gate forum at www.nola.com the last several years and he is far, far ahead on his occasional Pick 4 plays, which rarely exceed $36 and are often $24 or less.

BBB posted a Pick 4 on our forum that paid around ten grand -- it was at Keeneland, if I recall correctly -- which by itself would have him way ahead. But even if you disregarded that monster payoff, BBB would still be an overall winner, and easily so, with his other posted scores. And BBB doesn't just post numbers, as some do: He generally provides a succinct analysis that sets forth the rationale for his selections.

I agree with you guys to the extent that you may be saying that BBB would win more money if he would bet more often and cover more combinations; he frequently hits 3 out of 4 and would likely have cashed many of these tickets if he'd gone a little deeper or had played multiple tickets. But I am not one to argue with the methods of a highly successful horseplayer, and based on my observations, BBB is one.

DaHoss,

Thanks for the "welcome," although I must say that I feel somewhat less than welcome.

In post #17 of this thread, blackthroatedwind (or whatever his moniker is), said, in reply to BBB: "You won't 'out handicap' them." So, it's not exactly true that no one has questioned, at least to some extent, the ability of the gentleman to handicap. In reply, I merely related my own observations of BBB's handicapping prowess.

Adding my own thoughts on the subject, I would agree that the proposition "you won't out handicap them" is accurate insofar as the Pick 6 is concerned. There, the carryover provides the profit potential, and generally you have to make a healthy-sized bet in order to be in a position to take full advantage of it. However, as far as the no-carryover Pick 4 goes, no matter the size of your plays you have to "out-handicap" most others in order to win in the long run. As BBB is mostly a Pick 4 player, his concept of out-handicapping others is not just reasonable, it is essential.

As far as me "plugging" another forum is concerned, believe me that was the farthest thing from my mind, as I have no interest in promoting anyhthing. I included the reference to the other forum as a convenience for readers who may be interested in checking out whether what I said regarding BBB's record is true -- they can go to the forum and look into the matter -- although I am not sure how far back the archived posts go.

Finally, I've only been a member of this board for a few weeks and I've not reviewed a large number of threads, so I am not sure if this particular thread is representative, but if BBB has taken on some kind of an attitude or an air of superiority here, as you imply, perhaps it is because he has been forced into a defensive posture by the remarks of others. That has been my experience, at least, after but a single trip to the post (no pun intended) on this circuit.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

welcome ......im glad your posting....in regaurds to b-3..he has made many comments about his "god like' capping ability...however..he seems to know what he is doing...yet his claims are far fetched as far as what he has put out on this board...so wile he may have done well on another board.. his results here are suspect....many of the regulars on this board have put out on a daily and weekly basis good and accrurate plays for all to use..this sites founder for one steve byk a pro player in his own right...has made money for the masses from day one..we as a whole are a very well educated horse board and there are many good opinions here..so again welcome...






hooves..

[Scav]

Originally Posted by RealBigD

DaHoss,

Thanks for the "welcome," although I must say that I feel somewhat less than welcome.

In post #17 of this thread, blackthroatedwind (or whatever his moniker is), said, in reply to BBB: "You won't 'out handicap' them." So, it's not exactly true that no one has questioned, at least to some extent, the ability of the gentleman to handicap. In reply, I merely related my own observations of BBB's handicapping prowess.

Adding my own thoughts on the subject, I would agree that the proposition "you won't out handicap them" is accurate insofar as the Pick 6 is concerned. There, the carryover provides the profit potential, and generally you have to make a healthy-sized bet in order to be in a position to take full advantage of it. However, as far as the no-carryover Pick 4 goes, no matter the size of your plays you have to "out-handicap" most others in order to win in the long run. As BBB is mostly a Pick 4 player, his concept of out-handicapping others is not just reasonable, it is essential.

As far as me "plugging" another forum is concerned, believe me that was the farthest thing from my mind, as I have no interest in promoting anyhthing. I included the reference to the other forum as a convenience for readers who may be interested in checking out whether what I said regarding BBB's record is true -- they can go to the forum and look into the matter -- although I am not sure how far back the archived posts go.

Finally, I've only been a member of this board for a few weeks and I've not reviewed a large number of threads, so I am not sure if this particular thread is representative, but if BBB has taken on some kind of an attitude or an air of superiority here, as you imply, perhaps it is because he has been forced into a defensive posture by the remarks of others. That has been my experience, at least, after but a single trip to the post (no pun intended) on this circuit.

You write really well (not trying to bust your balls, serious skills right there)

To respond to above, it is great around here but the one piece of advice that I can give ANY new person is self-promotion. That will get you the most crap. You will get all the praise in the world when you hit a bomb, just don't be asking for it, you feel me?

I mean, when I grab something huge, like the Delta Downs hit from a while back, I mainly post the tickets to 'prove' that I have it, and also to possibly help someone with structuring tickets, which I feel I am above average with. I have stayed away from the whole BBB thing because alot of it is insane, but he started off on the wrong foot, I don't see you doing that whatsoever

Scav:

I appreciate your nice comments about my writing; thank you. I get lots of practice as I am a lawyer by trade.

DaHoss:

I'm not sure what you mean to imply by saying that it is "very coincidental" that I am making my first posts here. Basically, until now I have had little or nothing to contribute. I have been handicapping for many years, but I joined here just a few weeks ago. I work full time (see above), and my wife and I had our first baby three and a half months ago -- I could provide a link to baby pics but would not want to be accused of "plugging" my son. So, while I love racing and handicapping, unfortunately I have had little opportunity to follow the sport recently, as other responsibilities have been keeping me rather busy. I'm hoping that will change in the coming months.

The dialogue here is on a high plane -- there are indeed many fine handicappers and analysts on this board -- and bottom line is that I haven't had anything to say that would advance the discussion. The one exception is that I do have some first-hand knowledge of BBB, so I decided to share that.

I look forward to participating on the board as time will allow, and I hope to develop a good relationship with everyone here. Let's be friends. Good luck.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by RealBigD

Scav:

I appreciate your nice comments about my writing; thank you. I get lots of practice as I am a lawyer by trade.

DaHoss:

I'm not sure what you mean to imply by saying that it is "very coincidental" that I am making my first posts here. Basically, until now I have had little or nothing to contribute. I have been handicapping for many years, but I joined here just a few weeks ago. I work full time (see above), and my wife and I had our first baby three and a half months ago -- I could provide a link to baby pics but would not want to be accused of "plugging" my son. So, while I love racing and handicapping, unfortunately I have had little opportunity to follow the sport recently, as other responsibilities have been keeping me rather busy. I'm hoping that will change in the coming months.

The dialogue here is on a high plane -- there are indeed many fine handicappers and analysts on this board -- and bottom line is that I haven't had anything to say that would advance the discussion. The one exception is that I do have some first-hand knowledge of BBB, so I decided to share that.

I look forward to participating on the board as time will allow, and I hope to develop a good relationship with everyone here. Let's be friends. Good luck.

You really need to stick around now, I always do stupid things and could use a lawyer to talk to. Next time I do something ridiculous, you'll be the first person I PM

Do you really have a real big d?

[blackthroatedwind]

Am I the only one that finds it extremely amusing that everytime there is a BBB discussion some " poster " comes out of the woodwork with his ( or her ) first post telling us about all his successes and giving us a link to another board? Of course, they can't reference his plays here, as all of those have been losing ones.

It's kind of the handicapping version of " you should see the other guy ".



By the way, the entire notion of " out-handicapping " someones shows a complete misunderstanding of what playing the horses is all about. There are a lot of terrific handicappers out there who have no clue whatsoever how to make money. The most successful horseplayer I know, and he's VERY successful, has a terrible opinion. I think I'm a pretty good handicapper....I also probably chose the wrong road.

This thread gets my approval. Five markers.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Am I the only one that finds it extremely amusing that everytime there is a BBB discussion some " poster " comes out of the woodwork with his ( or her ) first post telling us about all his successes and giving us a link to another board? Of course, they can't reference his plays here, as all of those have been losing ones.

It's kind of the handicapping version of " you should see the other guy ".



By the way, the entire notion of " out-handicapping " someones shows a complete misunderstanding of what playing the horses is all about. There are a lot of terrific handicappers out there who have no clue whatsoever how to make money. The most successful horseplayer I know, and he's VERY successful, has a terrible opinion. I think I'm a pretty good handicapper....I also probably chose the wrong road.

word

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

word times 2..and im done with this...andy you really have done enough..lol..