FG 4

[SentToStud]

I disagree as strongly as possible that there is no room for a $24 (or thereabouts) per $1 play in a successful pick-4 strategy.

During my meet I play a lot of these tight tickets. I won't get into any discussion regarding success levels because nobody should care and what happened in the past doesn't predict the future.

There is a specific scenario I look for to play a short ticket. Specifically,
1. Spread race 1st or 2nd in the sequence and I can exclude a perceived bad chalk.
2. I have a solid single.
3. I can go 2 or 3 deep in the other two legs with the following caveats:
a. in at least one of the legs I can exclude what I believe will be a bad short priced horse
b. I'm not "drawing straws" to throw the last exclude out of the boat in those legs.

At the level I wager, I will play a short ticket 3-5 times.

If a p-4 does not fit the above, I'll tier using more runners and spend more per $1 unit. Or I will pass.

Not every p-4 pays $5,000. If I think the sequence fits the profile above, I will look to cash multiple times on a smaller per $1 wager.

And while I don't think it's a big factor, I guess there is something to be said for cashing 5 tickets @ $500 per vs one ticket for $2,500.

I have had this exact conversation several times with people I respect. I think it comes down to "fear of regret" theory. Do I ever regret not spending another $20, $40, etc... additional on a ticket when I narrowly missed? Sure I do . But I don't care. I'll rue my loss for a minute and move on. I WILL go back and think about how I evaluated the wager as being one that merited a tight ticket but that's it.

However you all play, good luck.