My Derby Trend.....

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Rand..

Not entirely.. Fads are meaningless.. Trends tend be impactful..

True enough....Cue Somer to post his angles. Haha.

[Thunder Gulch]

My personal Derby trend is a mint julep as an eye opener around 8am after staying out all night. That's not a fad after 15 years, and though I have a lot of early speed out of the gate that early, I always pack a big closing kick.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Let me further myself in this sillyness......

Here are how all horses that fit the following profile have run in the Kentucky Derby, over the last four years.

Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.

* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th

* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.

* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.

* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.


2003: I don't have the Derby past performances for this year, however I know Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

So, last three years, 6-3-2-0 record. Last four winners all fit. Not bad. No one fits it this year anyway though.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me further myself in this sillyness......

Here are how all horses that fit the following profile have run in the Kentucky Derby, over the last four years.

Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.

* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th

* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.

* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.

* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.


2003: I don't have the Derby past performances for this year, however I know Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

So, last three years, 6-3-2-0 record. Last four winners all fit. Not bad. No one fits it this year anyway though.

Hard Spun fits your profile.
I don't think it's the craziest trend, based on what has been successful long-term in getting a horse ready for the Derby (a solid base at two, obvious brilliance, etc.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hard Spun fits your profile.

No...his 2nd career start came at a distance shorter than 7 furlongs. So, he misses

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No...his 2nd career start came at a distance shorter than 7 furlongs. So, he misses

the delaware race... yes. was thinking of the penna nursery

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Penn Nursery wouldn't have met on Beyer figures though.

If anyone has the '03 Derby Past Performances, I'd be curious to know if Funny Cide was the only horse in the race who fit.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

2003: I don't have the Derby past performances for this year, however I know Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

There is something else about these horses along with
Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Monarchos, War Emblem
oh yeah.. my 3 syllable rule.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

How many other horses that ran against them in the Derby had three syllable names?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many other horses that ran against them in the Derby had three syllable names?

1997 - 3
1998 - 5
2001 - 8
2002 - 4
2003 - 6
2004 - 7
2005 - 8
2006 - 10

I think the above is correct, but if not, don't shoot me over it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Don't worry, I will take your word.

I'm not about to go combing through old result charts, saying names outloud and clapping.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many other horses that ran against them in the Derby had three syllable names?

I'm glad everyone is having fun with this

but how many horses can you eliminate cause they don't

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

I'm glad everyone is having fun with this

but how many horses can you eliminate cause they don't

Hey, I'm with you. I do the same thing... haha.

Last year, Eurobounce had some psychic lady predicting the derby. It was hilarious.