Any Derby Pool 1 thoughts?

[randallscott35]

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

call me if you change your mind...i'll let you place some bets for me can't do it from here.

[slotdirt]

Some value here, but I wouldn't place a bet on any of the favorites. Odds are you'll see equal to better odds depending on how the Derby preps are run.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

call me if you change your mind...i'll let you place some bets for me can't do it from here.

What do you want, I'll book it at whatever it closes at for you on Sunday? You aren't going to bet much anyway, so I don't mind. We'll talk later.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

Totally agree. Injuries, etc... with 26 so horses.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Totally agree. Injuries, etc... with 26 so horses.

pgardn,
The only one that looks good to me is Exhale...but not at 20-1.
In the Oaks...all others.

[ManilaRose]

I'm betting Exhale and Ravel. Since I'm not betting a ton of money I'm waiting until the last minute on Sunday to see if I'm getting better odds in the future pool or at bodog.com. Ravel is 22-1 at bodog so I suspect I'll be betting him there. Exhale is 40-1 at bodog. I'm not sure if he'll be that high in the futures pool come Sunday or not. As far as Exhale is concerned I'm basically betting on whether or not he starts in the Derby. If he does(which is a big if) he will be much lower than the 40-1 odds being offered considering the fact that he will have to run VERY well in the Lewis and Santa Anita Derby to have enough earnings to make the starting gate in the KY Derby. I'm thinking I'm going to put $50 on Ravel at 22/1 and $50 on Exhale wherever I can get the best odds.

[ceejay]

I'll look at the odds on Sunday and maybe play one who didn't start this weekend. Looking @ Belgravia, Great Hunter, Adore the Gold @ > 35-1.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ceejay

I'll look at the odds on Sunday and maybe play one who didn't start this weekend. Looking @ Belgravia, Great Hunter, Adore the Gold @ > 35-1.

I have never bet these, and I probably won't start this year, but as I type, Adore the Gold is 46-1. That seems like a pretty good value after his race in the Swale.

[miraja2]

Right now Notional is 39/1. Obviously that will probably change over the course of the day given his performance yesterday.
Two questions:
1) What do you guys think his odds will be by the time it closes today?
2) When does it close exactly?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Right now Notional is 39/1. Obviously that will probably change over the course of the day given his performance yesterday.
Two questions:
1) What do you guys think his odds will be by the time it closes today?
2) When does it close exactly?

It closes at 6pm EST today. The Oaks pool stays open longer, 6:30 I think.

About half the money will be bet into the Derby pool today. I'm (wildly) guessing that Notional will close near 20-1.

--Dunbar

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Not gunna get 50-1 on Liquidity.Pretty much this thing is a loser deal.I mean, you can't even get odds on a horse who is getting beat.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Not gunna get 50-1 on Liquidity.Pretty much this thing is a loser deal.I mean, you can't even get odds on a horse who is getting beat.

Yeah, no way to beat this bet. There's that 16% takeout to overcome. Oh yeah, it's the same takeout as most races. I guess the other bettors must be too smart. You're up against some shrewd bettors, like those who have already dumped a few thou on Dreaming of Anna, whose trainer says she's now going to stay on dirt (much less, run against the boys anytime soon.) And then there's all the money that was bet on horses that ran yesterday before they ran, like Lawrence The Roman. Yeah, this looks hopeless alright.

--Dunbar

Check your cars ashtray or take back some cans & bottles for the deposit...if applicable, Just for $2 in change... Put $2 on anything and quite possibly in May, IF that horse wears the roses and you can hopefully find your ticket, there will be some value in cashing in an old wrinkled ticket, worth digging in that dirty ashtray, worth taking back sticky, raunchy smelling beer cans, for just $2 you might just win $40, $60 $100 or even more. Most people have a dollar and a dream everytime the lotto comes up 2 or 3x a week, why not as horseplayers we just have some fun with the futures?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Yeah, no way to beat this bet.
--Dunbar

AGREE...This far out,you need much better odds than these.Almost 90 days to avoid an injury.That's a long time for this breed.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Not gunna get 50-1 on Liquidity.Pretty much this thing is a loser deal.I mean, you can't even get odds on a horse who is getting beat.

Liquidity ended 33-1.. Got down on him as Vegas is offering similar...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Liquidity ended 33-1.. Got down on him as Vegas is offering similar...

Liquidity was tempting, but I didn't go for it. I took a whole LOT of "All others", and a small amount of Adore The Gold, which I think also closed at 33-1.

--Dunbar