Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Are you serious about the "instant gratification"? The only "fun of wagering" for me is winning. Losing a race by my horse finishing second isn't any more fun for me than losing a race by my horse not starting (from a future bet).

--Dunbar

I enjoy the race when I have a betting interest. Even if my horse doesn't win I still get excited when it comes off the turn and either is in front and I'm hoping it holds on or is off the pace and I'm hoping it will fire. So if I'm going to lose a bet I'd much prefer it be that way where I at least get that moment of excitement as opposed to picking up a DRF and seeing the horse I bet was injured and off the Derby trail.

[coltsfan]

Dumb question: Where do you go to bet future pools? In other words, does this bet go "strictly through Vegas"?

[peddler]

Originally Posted by SilverRP

Dumb question: Where do you go to bet future pools? In other words, does this bet go "strictly through Vegas"?

Capital OTB allows you to bet at the parlors themselves

Originally Posted by SilverRP

Dumb question: Where do you go to bet future pools? In other words, does this bet go "strictly through Vegas"?

A little more info for you:

There will be 3 chances to bet on the Derby future pool at your local racetrack/OTB.

Pool 1 Feb 8 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Feb 11 (closes at 6 pm EST)
Pool 2 Mar 8 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Mar 11 (closes at 6 pm EST)
Pool 3 Apr 12 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Apr 15 (closes at 6 pm EST)

These are the only days to place a future wager at your local racetrack/OTB. The final odds for each pool are set after betting closes on the final day of each pool. If you place your bet on Saturday and the odds are 25-1 on your horse, you are not assured of getting 25-1 odds. The final odds are displayed Sunday after the pool closes. Those odds will not change from that point on.

Each pool contains 23 individual betting interests, and a 'field' which includes every horse not listed (#24). The 'field' is a very popular wager, especially in Pool 1, since you get about 300 some horses. The field (#24) is the likely favorite in Pool 1.

As you get closer to the Derby (i.e. Pool 3), most of the horses likely to run in the Derby are identified. Generally speaking, it is less likely that a 'field' entry from Pool 3 will run in the Derby than from Pool 1 or 2.

If your horse does not run in the Derby (a very likely scenario), you lose. You do not get a refund. There is no cancelling your bet once it is placed.

It is possible to cancel a ticket if an error is made, but Churchill Downs is getting very selective in what is cancelled and why - basically if the teller screws up and you notice it immediately you stand a chance of getting a cancellation. If you walk away from the window, the ticket is yours.

Here is a link to the 'official' site of the 2007 Derby:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/

There you can find 'real time' odds, the final odds once the pool closes, and info on some of the top horses.

What are people's thoughts on Street Sense breaking 'the Curse'?

That BC Juvenile race still looks like the best race any of these horses has run. We haven't seen him yet this year. Sounds like he will point for the Hutcheson and the Bluegrass.

I'm not exactly drooling over the 12-1 morning line.... but come Derby day that could look like a bargain.

He might be vulnerable in the 7 1/2 f Hutcheson. Not sure that distance is going to play to his running style. Perhaps there are better odds to be had in Pool 2?

[Dunbar]

free PP's are available at DRF for the 23 individual entries:

http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007...y_23_pool1.pdf

--Dunbar

[avance2000]

i am going with $20 on great hunter, and $20 on circular quay.

[slotdirt]

I can't seem to find the live odds anywhere on the Derby website.

[Mac88]

Originally Posted by avance2000

i am going with $20 on great hunter, and $20 on circular quay.

Agreed. Throwing $40 on Great Hunter as I think he might develop this spring and hoping to get a better price than I will in May. Wish CP West was a single entry instead of field. Thats my bomb

[coltsfan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm pretty sure you can bet it at most tracks and OTB's but don't quote me on that.

Thanks, I never really have thought much about the futures, but if I can bet them at the track, I might give it a shot.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

Keep in mind that the maximum that could reach the starting gate is 14/23, or 61%.

The horses that do not reach the starting gate are either injured or have shown they are not good enough, or, less likely, have failed to earn enough money to get in. These are all factors which can be capped.

Betting a parimutual future is very similar to betting a race. Aside from the time value of money that Sniper mentioned, the only real question is whether you can make use of the available info better than the other bettors. This is the same question you should be asking yourself with every bet.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Keep in mind that the maximum that could reach the starting gate is 14/23, or 61%.

The horses that do not reach the starting gate are either injured or have shown they are not good enough, or, less likely, have failed to earn enough money to get in. These are all factors which can be capped.

Betting a parimutual future is very similar to betting a race. Aside from the time value of money that Sniper mentioned, the only real question is whether you can make use of the available info better than the other bettors. This is the same question you should be asking yourself with every bet.

--Dunbar

20/23, 87%.
Hell would freeze over before that happens, of course.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

20/23, 87%.
Hell would freeze over before that happens, of course.

Oops, thanks for the correction, Phil. I forgot about the stampede.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

Here's some more info, 1st_Sat. Of the 5 lowest odds horses from Pool 1 each year, 60% have made it to the starting gate (21 of a possible 35). Of the next 5 lowest odds horses, 43% have started (15 of a possible 35).

Combining those figs with your 62 of 161, it looks like the "bottom 13" have just 26 of 91 possible starters, 29%.

--Dunbar

My husband was all over Fusaichi Pegasus in an early pool and the horse was double-digit odds at the time. It was our ONLY good future bet ever. Most of ours never even make the race, whether it is the Derby/Oaks or a BC race. I think it is a bad bet. I am really tempted to bet Ravel(Fupeg/Grade I winning A.P. Indy mare Let by A.P. Indy). I shall stop myself, however.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here's some more info, 1st_Sat. Of the 5 lowest odds horses from Pool 1 each year, 60% have made it to the starting gate (21 of a possible 35). Of the next 5 lowest odds horses, 43% have started (15 of a possible 35).

Combining those figs with your 62 of 161, it looks like the "bottom 13" have just 26 of 91 possible starters, 29%.

A crude way to use these figs would be to simply discount the future odds by the estimate of the horse not making it to the starting gate. You'd discount the favs' odds by 40%; the longshots' odds by 60-70%. So, if a horse looks like it's going to be 10-1 in the future pool, it would be the very rough equivalent of 6-1 on Derby day. A 50-1 longshot discounted 70% would be worth 15-1 on Derby day. That would just give you a ballpark way of accounting for the chance your horse would not start. It also helps keep us from getting overly excited by 30-1 or 50-1.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

These current odds are about as useful as morning line odds. Just dont want anyone to get their hopes up. 7K bet, by Sunday at 6pm, there will be over 100K in this pool, so these arent exactly a good barometer. Most people will wait until Sunday to bet.