Can you really make money in this game ?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Whatever dude. I say it's easier when you know rather than guess, but that's just me.

You are assuming that the people you listed " know ". I believe that, in general, they don't.

I have won over time for a long time while getting very little information. For the most part I very rarely seek information and only listen to what over time has proven reliable. For the most part I very rarely even ask.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

As they say......

"Horseplayers who make the mistake of fraternizing with horsemen will eventually regret it."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cal828

They seem to want to explain how it's done, but they are not saying that they're doing it.

I did it.

Happy?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are assuming that the people you listed " know ". I believe that, in general, they don't.

I have won over time for a long time while getting very little information. For the most part I very rarely seek information and only listen to what over time has proven reliable. For the most part I very rarely even ask.

So the trainer of a class dropper doesn't know better than the handicapper whether or not he's trying to get rid of the horse or just get the horse a confidence-builder? That's gotta be one clueless trainer.

And the jockey aboard a lame horse just in a race to get claimed doesn't know more than the handicapper?

And the exercise riders who are aboard a horse every morning don't know better than the handicapper how well one of their horses is training?

Here's the bottom line: You can be the best handicapper on the planet.. If the trainer of a horse you like isn't in the race to win it, you're cooked. Period.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So the trainer of a class dropper doesn't know better than the handicapper whether or not he's trying to get rid of the horse or just get the horse a confidence-builder? That's gotta be one clueless trainer.

And the jockey aboard a lame horse just in a race to get claimed doesn't know more than the handicapper?

And the exercise riders who are aboard a horse every morning don't know better than the handicapper how well one of their horses is training?

Here's the bottom line: You can be the best handicapper on the planet.. If the trainer of a horse you like isn't in the race to win it, you're cooked. Period.

Yep, that's one more handicapping angle.

When I've been at a track or OTB and some seasoned player is saying something to the effect of "these races are fixed!", I've often suggested "then handicap the fix."

And I've meant it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So the trainer of a class dropper doesn't know better than the handicapper whether or not he's trying to get rid of the horse or just get the horse a confidence-builder? That's gotta be one clueless trainer.

And the jockey aboard a lame horse just in a race to get claimed doesn't know more than the handicapper?

And the exercise riders who are aboard a horse every morning don't know better than the handicapper how well one of their horses is training?

Here's the bottom line: You can be the best handicapper on the planet.. If the trainer of a horse you like isn't in the race to win it, you're cooked. Period.

I'm in no way suggesting there is no validity to what you are saying, and certainly specific instances you give can be helpful, but in order for it to be at all helpful you have to know how good the opinions are that you are getting.

As DrugS pointed out earlier, the connections you describe are too close to their horses, and their opinions are stilted. A good handicapper, while he may not have specific information, knows how to make reasonable judgements, at least generally, about the information you are referring to. And, as he will have an even and unbiased view of the ENTIRE field, he can weigh everything together. Will he make mistakes? Of course, but over time he will have a far fairer and more balanced judgement of the races.

Believe me, I have had MANY people of the categories you describe give me poor and inaccurate insights. I have been successful trusting my judgement in the past and I will continue to do so. I will be wrong more often than I am right....but it seems to work out in the end.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm in no way suggesting there is no validity to what you are saying, and certainly specific instances you give can be helpful, but in order for it to be at all helpful you have to know how good the opinions are that you are getting.

As DrugS pointed out earlier, the connections you describe are too close to their horses, and their opinions are stilted. A good handicapper, while he may not have specific information, knows how to make reasonable judgements, at least generally, about the information you are referring to. And, as he will have an even and unbiased view of the ENTIRE field, he can weigh everything together. Will he make mistakes? Of course, but over time he will have a far fairer and more balanced judgement of the races.

Believe me, I have had MANY people of the categories you describe give me poor and inaccurate insights. I have been successful trusting my judgement in the past and I will continue to do so. I will be wrong more often than I am right....but it seems to work out in the end.

Fair enough. But I'm afraid that what I'm saying is being misinterpreted as "bet every horse you hear something about".. And that's not what I'm saying. I'm just making the point that if you take someone who handicaps the race versus someone who personally KNOWS connections in the race AND handicaps the race.. I think the latter has the former beaten far more often than not.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Fair enough. But I'm afraid that what I'm saying is being misinterpreted as "bet every horse you hear something about".. And that's not what I'm saying. I'm just making the point that if you take someone who handicaps the race versus someone who personally KNOWS connections in the race AND handicaps the race.. I think the latter has the former beaten far more often than not.

It may be being misinterpreted by some but I know what you're saying.

No doubt reliable information can be helpful, especially if you get it after you have fully handicapped the race, as then it won't affect your judgement. I have just never had the inclination to seek out information. To me, these people work their butts off and I think it is unfair of me to even ask them. They go to work when I go to bed for God's sake.

When I do the shows in Saratoga I basically beg people not to give me info prior to the shows as I feel obligated to repeat anything I know or heard.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm just making the point that if you take someone who handicaps the race versus someone who personally KNOWS connections in the race AND handicaps the race.. I think the latter has the former beaten far more often than not.

As logical as what you are saying may sound on the surface.....I totally disagree with it.

[blackthroatedwind]

As an example, I often repeated DrugS's brilliant insights on the shows...giving him credit of course.

I guess I just figured out why there was so much more hatred directed towards me at Saratoga last summer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

giving him credit of course.

I believe he reffered to me as "the lunatic living in the appartment above me."

And....that is honestly not accurate at all. I'm a soft spoken, humble, level-headed, 100% normal in all ways, Western Pennsylvania boy.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess I just figured out why there was so much more hatred directed towards me at Saratoga last summer.

It's your cat like moves and chiseled good looks, Andy.