Invasor 1 to 9

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Invasor crawled home to a final time that was 2.3 seconds faster than the other race.

Well, the other race was an N1X Allowance for newly turned 3yo's.....and the 108/1 winner of that race was 8-0-0-2 lifetime on fast tracks, his career top Beyer was just a 72.

Obviously, Invasor's race came home so tremendously slow for the Grade 1 Older Male level, because the early pace was very fast. However, Invasor benifited from that fast pace....as much or more so than any other horse in the race.

And while he overcame major leauge trouble---he did it in a collapsing race....and his "heroic late surge to victory" came through really slow late fractions for that type of race.

It was a great sight to watch....and he's obviously a very good horse....but, when circumstances are considered, that was far from a truly great performance.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Well, the other race was an N1X Allowance for newly turned 3yo's.....and the 108/1 winner of that race was 8-0-0-2 lifetime on fast tracks, his career top Beyer was just a 72.

Obviously, Invasor's race came home so tremendously slow for the Grade 1 Older Male level, because the early pace was very fast. However, Invasor benifited from that fast pace....as much or more so than any other horse in the race.

And while he overcame major leauge trouble---he did it in a collapsing race....and his "heroic late surge to victory" came through really slow late fractions for that type of race.

It was a great sight to watch....and he's obviously a very good horse....but, when circumstances are considered, that was far from a truly great performance.

So it was a great sight to watch, and he overcame major league trouble, but not a great performance. OK.

No one was expecting a race for the ages here. Invasor just showed yet another dimension to his will to win.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

So it was a great sight to watch, and he overcame major league trouble, but not a great performance. OK.

No one was expecting a race for the ages here. Invasor just showed yet another dimension to his will to win.

Amen!

I think the real problem here is the horse's name is not Discreet Cat.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Amen!

I think the real problem here is the horse's name is not Discreet Cat.

Please, if the horse was Discreet Cat he would have folded up once the going got tough like that Ward horse in the Hal's Hope and we would have had to hear about how the terrible trip got him beat. Instead he showed heart, fought through the tough trip, and actually won so everyone is going to focus on the slow time and the lack of competition and just ignore the trouble he ran into during the race. He'll get the worst Beyer of his career (about a 107) which shouldn't be surprising considering the trouble he ran into. I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.

In that case...you really don't understand it at all....and have a lot to learn.

[The Bid]

BTW,

In your opinion how many does Invasor win by with no trouble. How many Lengths do you think that mild check and heel clip cost him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Bid

BTW,

In your opinion how many does Invasor win by with no trouble. How many Lengths do you think that mild check and heel clip cost him.

The trouble cost him somewhere in the area of a length, maybe less and maybe a little more, but I think he more than made up for that with the rest of his trip.

To be perfectly honest I think if you switched his trip with Hesanoldsalt's the result would have been closer than it was.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Here are Beyers from Saturday at GP and SA.

Spin Master, 99
Keyed Entry, 105
Adore the Gold, 102
Sweet Return, 104
Giant Wrecker, 103
Naissance Royale, 98
Invasor, 109
Arsen Squad, 104
Ravel, 102
Curlin, 101
Nobiz Like Shobiz, 98

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Nice work, DrugS! None off by more than 1 except for Curlin's which was off by 2.

--Dunbar

[Danzig]

as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.

[Linny]

Invasor (like most of the others listed) was not all out to win. He was hand ridden.

At this time last year, I had 'Salt on my "Derby Dozen" and at least feel somewhat vindicated by his recent development. When doing my list I try to focus only on what I see, not on any opinions/comments from trainers. I try not to focus only on those trained by people I know. I spoke to Nick last summer about 'Salt and he told me that had I asked him, I would not have had the colt so high. He (horse) was very nervous and edgy, talented by immature. He was settling in well by the time he got to the Spa.

The horse that surprised me (pleasantly) was Chatain. At the top of the lane I thought he might win it.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.

Thats right, everyone seems to only be focused on the check-up , saying that it may have cost only one length.

The way I look at it, is from the perspective of what was the effect of the total incident? I counted 11 seconds between the time that Jara first slows him because of not having room until the point when the rail opened and he started with the whip. During this time several things happened including just waiting, trying to go out, then checking-up and redirecting inside. This eleven seconds is why it was Invasors worst speed rating.

As someone else mentioned, all Jara was supposed to do was to keep him with a clear path to the wire, even if that meant floating him out wide. He is not a horse that requires some tricky rail move to win. His job was to keep him out of trouble only and somehow he managed to run right into trouble. Maybe he just got unlucky and he didn't have other good options, but I do question the move up on the rail.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.

[blackthroatedwind]

While I know you are just having fun here, which is obviously totally cool, I will say ( for what it's worth ) that I have spent a lot of time discussing the races and watching replays with DrugS and I have a huge amount of respect for his opinion.

He's a pathetic excuse for a human being, and really only of actual value during an unexpected flood, but he can handicap circles around 99% of the horseplaying population.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's a pathetic excuse for a human being.

Yeah, but I make up for that with my dashingly good looks!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.

Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.

The trips are what they are and I think if you watch the race a couple more times you will see that I in no way overexagerated Hesanoldsalt's trip. I am not way suggesting he is close to the horse Invasor is but merely suggesting that his trip was less than perfect in contrasting ways to Invasor's.

I knock Jara because I believe that a major responsibility of a rider is, when riding superior horses in races, to take no unnecessary chances. I applaud riders that take risks, like Jara's today, when they ride an inferior horse and need to get lucky to win, or even end up close, but I do not believe every horse should be ridden the same.

[pmayjr]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but didn't when Invasor clipped heels and almost go down kinda remind y'all of Afleet Alex in the Preakness a little bit? What a horse!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.

Jara wouldn't have been in position to BE boxed in or clip heels if he had taken the path of least resistence that Invasor has prefered in virtually all his North American starts/wins... And that is to float 3 or so paths off the inside and swing around the leaders and storm home.

And since you mention Zito, he said that he also thought 'Salt' had a shot just after the eighth pole. He said had one of the other horses approaching the leaders assumed the spot being vacated by one of the tiring pacesetters, Invasor may have found no room at all to get through. He laughingly acknowledged it would have been the only way to have come away with a win Saturday.

But he was THRILLED with the 2nd, as was owner Charlotte Weber (who had been very disappointed by Miesque's Approval 90 minutes earlier).