Revisiting SNS - Saturday

[blackthroatedwind]

I think Silver Wagon is very dangerous here. His two turn races, all as a 3YO at the old Gulfstream, are reasonably good, and he is clearly fast enough. He should get a good trip, and the pace will be contentious. I don't discount Sweetnorthernsaint, and Dry Martini is OK, but little else scares me here.

Scav.....Papa Chullo? Come on. And Summer Book? He's ridiculous. But he's also 100-1 so good luck.

[golfer]

Haven't seen the thorograph's yet, but if my memory serves me, I believe Papi Chullo's best races are at a mile, the extra 1/8th may hurt him.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think Silver Wagon is very dangerous here. His two turn races, all as a 3YO at the old Gulfstream, are reasonably good, and he is clearly fast enough. He should get a good trip, and the pace will be contentious. I don't discount Sweetnorthernsaint, and Dry Martini is OK, but little else scares me here.

Scav.....Papa Chullo? Come on. And Summer Book? He's ridiculous. But he's also 100-1 so good luck.

Fast enough at 6f, but can he run that number going 3 extra panels?

Please forgive me for giving Summer Book the possiblity of winning, I lost my brain for a few, just found it and we are ready to go......

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i have it sns /silver waggon...prado would not take unless he didnt think he could contend/arminian summer / dry martini..and my bomb get funky,,

[SentToStud]

I believe the following is true....

At 9 Furlongs at Gulfstream during this meet and the prior two meets, only one horse has won from the 10 post or further out... Barbaro in the FL Derby last year.

SNS has got his work cut out for him. Can't fault anyone playing against him tomorrow at a short number.

[Cajungator26]

Silver Wagon...

I think the post might be too much for SNS.

[JJP]

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

[Scav]

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

I'm a big SNS fan, but I can think of better things to do with 2K then to place it on the nose of a horse that drew so poorly.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Scav

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

Going 4 wide into the first turn would not be a shock to me. And if that's the case, its going to be very difficult to win. Silver Wagon may be lower than 4-1; 7-2ish probably.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

I thought my line was pretty good. OK Summer Book ran better than 30-1 but he wasn't exactly hammered at the windows. 30-1 on McCanns' Mojave was a bit much. Now if SNS had one of the inside 4 posts, what would he have been? 7-5? 6-5? In any event, one should avoid the far outside posts in 9f GP races.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by JJP

I thought my line was pretty good. OK Summer Book ran better than 30-1 but he wasn't exactly hammered at the windows. 30-1 on McCanns' Mojave was a bit much. Now if SNS had one of the inside 4 posts, what would he have been? 7-5? 6-5? In any event, one should avoid the far outside posts in 9f GP races.

Mccann's Mojave hadn't run a race with a number or performance that suggested he was capable of winning Saturday in over a year....30-1 seemed right about spot on. Summer Book looked a little underbet to me (and I got ripped to pieces before the race by one of the Chicago guys for saying that...who incidentally loved Get Funky). Summer Book had at least run competitive numbers twice last years...he just never got there.