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#1
08-10-2025, 03:28 PM
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Best Bet: Race 10 #11 Hop Sing 8/1 - I think could go overlooked in here with some of the name horses/connections. Should be appreciative of the added ground if they run this one at the right distance today.
Best Value: Race 8 #4 Ocala Dream 12/1 - Should be rounding back into top form and that makes a player in here at a number. 
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#3
08-11-2025, 06:45 PM
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Wednesday picks.
Race 6. #4 Klimt Master, 20/1. Klimt Master was mugged at the start of last race but I was impressed with how he cut the corner heading into the stretch and really made up some ground. His figures fit with every contender here and he’s got the added benefit of dropping into MCL from the MSW ranks. He’ll get majorly overlooked due to his jockey and trainer but tell me how much you really trust any horse in this race. Give him a clean trip and he’s got a huge chance to win this. Race 8. #1 Disco Star, 5/2. Disco Star looks like the most talented horse in this field by a wide margin and I don’t want to take short prices on the other likely favorites — Hangover Heaven, Nonna Lynne, and Trail of Gold. Casse has brought a lot of horses ready to run to Saratoga and I’d expect her to appreciate the slight cutback. Thursday Race 6. #5 Schwarzenegger, 8/5. I’ve been waiting to bet this 2YO and hoping he doesn’t scratch out again. Im very doubtful that we get 8/5 on him but if he’s 8/5 then I’m in. Race 9. #6 Mo Kreesa, 15/1. The pace here looks favorable for Mo Kreesa and note he gets Johnny V aboard for this race. I thought the ML favorite Enlighten got a perfect trip last out and still wasn’t able to win. Now he switches to a different barn and loses Irad so I’m not inclined to take him at a short price even if Santana has been riding great. The other likely top choice #7 Steadfast Resolve drops in class and comes out of some longer races and has Irad aboard. I like that horse a lot more than Enlighten — but you’ve got to wonder if he’ll be compromised by what looks to be a slow or at least moderate pace. The other pace horse that might interest me is Gem Mint Ten but he draws Romero Maragh and I don’t have full confidence in him like I do Johnny V. Mo Kreesa also switches barns to Mark Hennig and looking for him to move the horse up a bit from Linda Dixon. Last edited by moses : 08-12-2025 at 06:24 AM.
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#4
08-12-2025, 04:25 PM
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Was away the last week plus and hadn't updated:
Jhirsch was awful. Any Port was an OK third. Duboff I thought ran pretty well, just wasn’t quite good enough at around 9/1. Imminent Risk ran fair racking up another of what feels like a lot of 3rds for my picks of late. Insubordination was probably one of my worst picks of the meet. ^Oops, forgot I picked Soho Nights too. Salamis was a much needed winner paying $6.70/$3.50 No Mo Candy another who ran an OK third. Practical Lov was a pretty disappointing non-threatening fourth. I thought Rebel Red did all the dirty work, great race riding by Irad and just got nailed by a horse that ran an unbelievably strong race while also receiving a most perfect ride from Prat...that was a heartbreaker for me that cost me a few decent scores...paid $14.20 to place. Ocala Dream was not rounding back into form and finished last. I thought Hop Sing turned away No Bien Ni Mal about 5 times but had that sickening gut feel that what ended up happening, would, as NBNM denied Hop Sing who I was also wrong about being overlooked, took tons of money cutting the ML in half and paid a really short $4.40 to place. Wagered: $216.00 Returned: $246.90
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#5
08-13-2025, 01:43 PM
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Ugly Card Today...
Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Hangover Heaven 7/2 - I totally get anyone who wants be be totally against a horse like this...it has a lot of the hallmarks of a bet against, however the more I looked through this field she just seems like the one with the upside and any type of move forward she might be too much for this field...she's worked four times since the debut - typically would want a better price on a horse like this but there wasn't a ton jumping out at me today. Best Value: Race 6 #2 Cada Dia Mejor 15/1 - Maybe just not much horse but this feels like a field to take a swing in...he was hopefully just running on the wrong surface all winter being out of Big Brown, admittedly there's not a ton of breeding on the dam side, but again these are maiden claimers and I don't know how good he ultimately has to be...I thought he was clearly never going to get the distance in the April turf debut at 1 1/16 and then there was another dirt sprint, his best race to that point...I thought his first shot at a turf sprint was just fine and while he'll have to run better in here he's a bit muddied up and worth a shot today.
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#6
08-13-2025, 04:11 PM
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Just an added comment on Disco Star who everyone is saying she got a perfect trip last out. She did get an inside trip but was far back after a slow start and closed into a pace that very much held together. She might not get pace again today but she should get another inside trip. I’m hoping she is more forwardly placed today.
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#7
08-13-2025, 06:27 PM
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Quote:
$278.50 returned As much as I've bought in to the Schwarzenegger hype, I can't pick an 8/5 two year old as one of my picks. I'm sticking with Mo Kreesa for all the reasons mentioned above. The other horse I want to take a shot on is going to be an absolutely massive price and will probably not win...but there are a few things I like and I'll regret it if I don't back him and he wins. Race 3. #1 Extraoardinary One, 20/1. So, the things you obviously don't like here are that the horse has been running against lower competition, has a trainer with weak numbers, and will have Katie Davis aboard who has yet to win at Saratoga this meet. And this horse has not finished in the money once in 8 career starts. OK. But there are a few things I like about this horse -- first, he's clearly better on turf than any other surface and so 5 of his starts were wasted on other surfaces. His figure two back puts him in contention here, though that was at a dramatically longer 11 furlongs. But why was this horse going long to begin with? His sire and grandsire were sprinters and he's clearly faded in many of the route races he's been in, despite getting out to a good start. Now, he adds lasix and I've got no clue if that will make a difference or not but I'm getting a big price on a horse that does have some positives going for him. I'm not totally against the morning line favorite but believe only 2 of the 18 non-winners from his first two starts have gone on to win and one of those was on dirt so I'll take a shot against him. Last edited by moses : 08-13-2025 at 06:53 PM.
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#8
08-14-2025, 01:56 PM
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Well, Extraordinary One outran his odds with a decent 5th place finish, confirming he should stick to the turf and probably turf races under a mile. I think the horse got bullied out of position early by the 2 horse and then outrun by the 3 in the stretch after trying to go around him. I think with a better trip, he maybe gets up for 3rd and finishes off my trifecta bet. But…no such luck.
Not sure if they’ll take the turf races off after this downpour. If so, I’lll add an alternate bet. I like the #9 Burn Rubber at 15/1 in Race 5 in the event that Race 9 gets taken off the turf.
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#9
08-14-2025, 02:56 PM
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8/14:
Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Nice Try Riley 12/1 - Bred for the dirt and I had that debut fast - probably to the point I'm not sure I trust the number - but there was a bit of a trip in there anyway...this field is hungry and I like a bit of a new face at a number here. Best Value: Race 10 #5 Blame It On KJ 15/1 - When you think Kitten's Joy you think turf and I guess they wanted to try again but KJ runners can sometimes handle dirt and there is a little decent breeding on the damside that says the dirt is worth a shot. One thing is for sure the stretchout figures to be a big positive and I'll take a shot on this unexposed runner in a pretty weak field.
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#10
08-14-2025, 04:01 PM
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$232.00 wagered
$278.50 returned The cold streak continues. Burn Rubber got the pace and trip I was expecting but just was not good enough. I might be taking too big of a swing with some of these picks...but I've got to keep taking shots where I think there is some value. Friday. I'm tempted to go with some short prices here just to get a win...but #4 Invictus in Race 2 is 8/5 and has Manny Franco aboard and I'm just not going to bet that horse at the price with the way Manny has been riding lately, even if he looks like the lone speed and that the 8/5 price will hold as former Breeders Cup Classic entry Dreamlike is entered here. I also tried to talk myself into just using Future Is Now as a single but the Smart N Fancy Stakes came up a little salty, imo, and Future Is Now looks to get yet another wide trip. So instead, here's where I ended up for the day. Race 4. #4 Bellacose 8/1. Imagine getting Ward/Velazquez in a turf sprint at 8/1. I'm hoping that price holds as there doesn't seem to be much pace here with it looking like Bellacose and the #2 Bustin Bullet (Blinkers ON) will contend for the early lead. But Johnny V and Irad are both smart riders and I don't expect them to get into a duel that mutually assures their own destruction. Of the two, I prefer Bellacose who is lightly raced and has enough turf pedigree, combined with some nice turf workouts, for me to take a risk on her turf debut. Race 9. #2 Risk Threshold 12/1. Future Is Now is going to be very tough to beat here but I want to take a chance on Risk Threshold who has put in two solid efforts in her most recent allowance races and should be primed for a peak performance here. Junior Alvarado has been great at working out ground-saving trips on the turf so far this meet and I'm not sure she's quite fast enough to contest the early pace so my hope is that she gets a perfect rail trip right behind the main speed.
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