Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’ve looked at the Wednesday card and don’t really love it. I don’t want to spend much time on it.

Wednesday.

Race 1. #2 Castle Island, 4/1. Decent chance he wires, though wish Jose Ortiz was still aboard.

Race 8. #8 Notable Exchange, 12/1. This one has been looking for a pace to run into and should get it here.

Thursday.

Race 7. #2 Regalton, 8/1. It seems like George Weaver has been dominating the turf sprints at Saratoga. That’s probably because he has been, winning at a 40% clip in turf sprints this meet. The numbers are even better when you consider that 2 of his 9 starting non-winners ran 2nd and 4th to Governor Sam in the Quick Call. Similarly, he also has Silsbee and Laurice listed here. I think ML favorite Love Cervere is a very nice horse but question if she wants 5.5 furlongs as opposed to a little longer.

Race 9. #4 Maui Strong, 7/2. I’ve really liked this horse for a long time and now Irad hops aboard, making me question if there is any way we actually get 7/2 on him. I think he should be the heavy favorite so I’d love got get him at 7/2. Doesn’t look like a ton of pace signed on and he’s got a major class edge over these horses.

Well, Maui Strong is scratched which really just sort of ruins my day. Instead, I’ll take a chance on a longshot who promises to be a huge price:

Race 4. #5 Freedom Speaks, 12/1. Miguel Clement and Jena Antonucci both send out nice horses and Joe Sharp and Bill Mott send out two each in this race. So how did I end up on Heather Smullen’s mare? Well, this race doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of speed and Freedom Speaks adds Johnny V and stretches out from sprint races. I watched all of her sprints and she had some speed but she just never looked fast enough in any of her recent starts. She’s got a few figures that make her competitive here and I’d guess a pace advantage as I would expect Johnny V to send and all he’s really got to beat to the lead is Do Gooder and I don’t think Do Gooder is very fast. Her best race came at 6.5 furlongs at Kentucky Downs and she looked pretty good in her only race at a mile at Keeneland. Bullet workout last out. She’s also listed in the Ballaston Spa (ha!) and that was an overly ambitious placement but maybe an indication that she’s working really well right now.

I suspect Vive Veuve will be overbet based on the last out win against Proctor Street (who is a very nice horse) but outside of that race, none of her races really put her above the rest here. There’s a decent chance Freedom Speaks simply isn’t good enough but I think she’ll be even higher than that 12/1 morning line so I’ll take a shot on what looks like a major jockey upgrade and pace advantage.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Insubordination 8/1 - like on the stretch back putt today
Best Value: Race 10 #7 SoHo Nights 8/1 - seems as likely as any in here to me if the surface switch takes and should be a solid price with some of the other connections in here

[moses]

Ugh. What a miserable day. Freedom Speaks isn’t a sprinter or a router. She’s just not very good. Regalton ran OK but darn — I almost landed on the winner, also trained by George Weaver. Had him in my multis but couldn’t connect on some of the other legs.

$192.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

I’ve got a few thoughts about tomorrow but going to look at the card a bit more.

[moses]

Friday.

I was tempted here to go with #2 Salamis in Race 7 as he was wide throughout against some really good horses last race and still finished well…but there are too many intriguing prices that race to lock him in. Instead.

Race 2. #2 Epitaph, 8/1. I like Gary Contessa horses because they always seem to fly under the radar. This race looks like a two horse race between Alexis Zorba and Billionaires Row but I’m a little concerned both of them could be compromised by a fast pace. And neither is a horse I want to rely on at a short price. Epitaph broke his maiden on debut and was thrown into stakes races immediately afterward. He then got stretched out, not sure he liked that, and then back to sprints before a layoff. I’m not sure what’s up with his workouts but he’s a talented turf sprinter and he’ll be a big price in a race where I don’t really love the likely favorites.

Race 8. #2 Whiskey Decision, 6/1. I’ve got some reservations about Manny Franco handling this filly as she seems a bit stubborn and didn’t seem to settle easily last out. But she was still good enough to win and made a really nice move shooting through a gap on the inside. #8 Deep Satin is possibly going to be the favorite and the other Chad will draw a lot of money but I question if Maggie Go really wants to go this distance and I thought Whiskey Decision was more impressive last out. Ozara flattered Whiskey Decision with the last out win.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 7 #2 Salamis 3/1 - Super obvious off the last trip and the connections but I’d be delighted with 2/1 or better as I don’t think he’s losing although there are interesting alternates.

Best Value: Race 8 #5 No Mo Candy 8/1 - I have as fast as all the others in here and figures to be the best price of the contenders even with Irad jumping aboard.

[moses]

I may be busy with the family this weekend so going to post some picks for tomorrow and Sunday now. If I have more time to look, I'll provide additional commentary or might even change them up.


Saturday.

Race 4. #9 Common Defense, 6/1. A few things here. First, Aragona is great with the morning line but I think this horse will be above 6/1. Carmouche has been riding well and note McPeek tries to get him back on turf, which he’s bred for. In some ways, it’s good he got his first race off the layoff out of the way. If he likes the turf at all, he should be able to sit behind Be Of Courage and make the first move.

Race 7. #2 Magical Ways, 12/1. Most of his turf races put him in the ballpark and note he tended to run figures a little better on turf than his dirt form coming into a race. (13 point jump in TF figure in October of last year when going dirt/turf and 17 point jump in TF figure last March going dirt/turf.) Rudy has tried to get him back on the grass the last three races and they were all washed off. A 10-15 Timeform jump would put him at 123-128 Timeform. I don't expect that but even a modest improvement going dirt/turf will make him competitive against the top horses in here. I don't love that Maragh hops aboard or that he's never won on turf -- but that also means his price will be good. The pace looks like it will be honest here and Magical Ways should be picking up pieces late. I think he's a must-use underneath and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him get up for the win.

(Note: Originally picked Far Bridge but switched to Common Defence to play the higher odds.)



Sunday.

Race 9. #8 Gabaldon, 8/1. I'm going to lose money betting against Governor Sam again but I want to take a shot here. Gabaldon reports as a first time gelding and gets Jose Ortiz to hop aboard. He's never finished out of the money in his three starts (all stakes races). The connections obviously think highly of him as he made his debut in a stakes race at Gulfstream (which he coincidentally won after running Governor Sam into the ground) and then was shipped to Ascot where he ran 2nd. He came up short last out after setting the pace but you've got to forgive him a little for faltering as he was thrown right back into stakes company off a 9 month layoff. He was given some rest and looks to be working well in preparation for this race.

Race 10. #10 Turn and Count, 20/1. Obviously this horse needs to get a little faster to be able to win this race but note he's run into some really good horses and he may like stretching out to two turns. The likely favorites in this race leave me underwhelmed -- Classicist got an easy front running win last out, and while that was an impressive return off a long layoff, he won't get an easy lead in this one as the horse to his immediate inside Tuscan Gold adds blinkers with Chileno and Hop Sing likely adding to the pace. Carlos Martin and Luis Rivera connecting at a 19% rate for 2024-2025. It's a longshot but I want to see how much this colt has improved since May. I've made worse bets.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Friday.

I was tempted here to go with #2 Salamis in Race 7 as he was wide throughout against some really good horses last race and still finished well…but there are too many intriguing prices that race to lock him in. Instead.

Race 2. #2 Epitaph, 8/1. I like Gary Contessa horses because they always seem to fly under the radar. This race looks like a two horse race between Alexis Zorba and Billionaires Row but I’m a little concerned both of them could be compromised by a fast pace. And neither is a horse I want to rely on at a short price. Epitaph broke his maiden on debut and was thrown into stakes races immediately afterward. He then got stretched out, not sure he liked that, and then back to sprints before a layoff. I’m not sure what’s up with his workouts but he’s a talented turf sprinter and he’ll be a big price in a race where I don’t really love the likely favorites.

Race 8. #2 Whiskey Decision, 6/1. I’ve got some reservations about Manny Franco handling this filly as she seems a bit stubborn and didn’t seem to settle easily last out. But she was still good enough to win and made a really nice move shooting through a gap on the inside. #8 Deep Satin is possibly going to be the favorite and the other Chad will draw a lot of money but I question if Maggie Go really wants to go this distance and I thought Whiskey Decision was more impressive last out. Ozara flattered Whiskey Decision with the last out win.

God I am as cold as ice right now.

$200.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 11 - #1 Practiical Lov 3/1 - think the last was legit as it comes and think she’s ready for even better today. Competitive race so think this morning line should more or less hold.

Best Value: Race 10 #2 Rebels Red 8/1 - I am a glutton for punishment constantly trying to beat Far Bridge but I do think that last race was a phony after all the scratches. Looks like a lot of people are landing on El Rezeen in here. I tried to beat Far Bridge with him last out and really after all the scratches he had no shot and ran OK, but he was never really getting to Far Bridge who was under wraps…should set up a lot better today and maybe I’ll put him right in the winners circle jumping off…I don’t love either of the Appleby runners though they’d hardly surprise. I think this is a perfect spot to try to get Rebel Red at a decent price against a field I’m not overwhelmed with. Given the one eye it’s no surprise that you never really know what you’re going to get but I think he can finish with these if Irad can work a trip.

I did look at Colonial today and I’m pretty excited to bet Isivungu another shot in the 8th. I think the form this year is completely muddied up with the trip to Dubai and today is absolutely the day to get the money. It’s a tough field but I’ll be shocked if he isn’t poised for an A effort today and the price should be right. In the Secretariat I also want to give Giacoso a shot. He was pretty good as a two year old but has some excuses in his last few.

Good luck

[moses]

I ended up staying home with my two youngest while my wife is out with my two oldest. So I’ve gotten to watch all my horses get beat in real time today.

Common Defense was wide throughout and got beat by a horse I wouldn’t have ended up on in multis without hitting the ALL button, ultimately finishing third.

The pace didn’t really develop the way I hoped in race 7. I thought Maragh gave this horse a great ride and I hope anyone betting trifectas and superfectas included him as he got up for third at 13/1.

$208.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

[moses]

For today, going to change my picks a bit.

I’ll stick with #10 Turn and Count in Race 10 as one of the picks but I don’t think I can bet against Governor Sam in the Mahony, plus Gabaldon is a gulfstream speed horse and I just don’t generally bet those horses.

Instead, I’m going to land on #3 Fun to Tap, 7/2 in the opener. The expectations for this horse have always been high and he looked pretty good when last seen in November. There are a few nice horses here that will take money but this horse wins with a mild improvement from his 2YO season.

[moses]

Well, Fun to Tap was awful. Hopefully my other pick isn’t so bad.

I may just be losing it though because I’m kind of liking this 2 horse Everytimeithinkofu in Race 5.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 #11 Hop Sing 8/1 - I think could go overlooked in here with some of the name horses/connections. Should be appreciative of the added ground if they run this one at the right distance today.

Best Value: Race 8 #4 Ocala Dream 12/1 - Should be rounding back into top form and that makes a player in here at a number.

[moses]

Nice call with Hop Sing. Just got edged out.

I need to recalibrate. I had built up quite a cushion but I’ve hit a drought. Time to lock in.

$216.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

[moses]

Wednesday picks.

Race 6. #4 Klimt Master, 20/1. Klimt Master was mugged at the start of last race but I was impressed with how he cut the corner heading into the stretch and really made up some ground. His figures fit with every contender here and he’s got the added benefit of dropping into MCL from the MSW ranks. He’ll get majorly overlooked due to his jockey and trainer but tell me how much you really trust any horse in this race. Give him a clean trip and he’s got a huge chance to win this.

Race 8. #1 Disco Star, 5/2. Disco Star looks like the most talented horse in this field by a wide margin and I don’t want to take short prices on the other likely favorites — Hangover Heaven, Nonna Lynne, and Trail of Gold. Casse has brought a lot of horses ready to run to Saratoga and I’d expect her to appreciate the slight cutback.

Thursday

Race 6. #5 Schwarzenegger, 8/5. I’ve been waiting to bet this 2YO and hoping he doesn’t scratch out again. Im very doubtful that we get 8/5 on him but if he’s 8/5 then I’m in.

Race 9. #6 Mo Kreesa, 15/1. The pace here looks favorable for Mo Kreesa and note he gets Johnny V aboard for this race. I thought the ML favorite Enlighten got a perfect trip last out and still wasn’t able to win. Now he switches to a different barn and loses Irad so I’m not inclined to take him at a short price even if Santana has been riding great. The other likely top choice #7 Steadfast Resolve drops in class and comes out of some longer races and has Irad aboard. I like that horse a lot more than Enlighten — but you’ve got to wonder if he’ll be compromised by what looks to be a slow or at least moderate pace. The other pace horse that might interest me is Gem Mint Ten but he draws Romero Maragh and I don’t have full confidence in him like I do Johnny V. Mo Kreesa also switches barns to Mark Hennig and looking for him to move the horse up a bit from Linda Dixon.

[theguarantee]

Was away the last week plus and hadn't updated:
Jhirsch was awful.
Any Port was an OK third.
Duboff I thought ran pretty well, just wasn’t quite good enough at around 9/1.
Imminent Risk ran fair racking up another of what feels like a lot of 3rds for my picks of late.
Insubordination was probably one of my worst picks of the meet.
^Oops, forgot I picked Soho Nights too.
Salamis was a much needed winner paying $6.70/$3.50
No Mo Candy another who ran an OK third.
Practical Lov was a pretty disappointing non-threatening fourth.
I thought Rebel Red did all the dirty work, great race riding by Irad and just got nailed by a horse that ran an unbelievably strong race while also receiving a most perfect ride from Prat...that was a heartbreaker for me that cost me a few decent scores...paid $14.20 to place.
Ocala Dream was not rounding back into form and finished last.
I thought Hop Sing turned away No Bien Ni Mal about 5 times but had that sickening gut feel that what ended up happening, would, as NBNM denied Hop Sing who I was also wrong about being overlooked, took tons of money cutting the ML in half and paid a really short $4.40 to place.

Wagered: $216.00
Returned: $246.90