Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Some thoughts on the Late Pick 5 today. Not going to do this frequently but I like the sequence, the key being to single Baeza and go wide in Race 11. It was tempting to try to go wider Race 8 but I really like this Finger Lakes invader and didn’t want to dilute that opinion too much. If playing a bigger ticket, I’d probably go wider Race 9 as many of the horses in that race are capable but also wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to simply single Classic Q based on the projected pace scenario.

Race 8.
#4 Blamicker 8/1 (Englehart/Worrie) (A)
#2 Stewie 5/1 (Begg/I Ortiz) (A)
#9 Kenny Be 7/2 (Duggan/J Ortiz) (B)
#3 Vekinda 4/1 (Weaver/Franco) (-)

Race 9.
#3 Daisy Flyer, 12/1 (Arnold/Lezcano) (A)
#4 Lavender Disaster, 5/2 (Brown/I Ortiz) (A)
#5 Classic Q, 2/1 (Casse/J Ortiz) (C)
#2 Pretty Lavish, 12/1 (Motion/Castellano) (C)

Race 10.
#1 Baeza, 3/1 (Shirreffs/Berrios) (A)
#5 Sovereignty, 2/5 (Mott/Alvarado) (C)
#3 Mo Plex, 10/1 (Englehart/Franco) (-)
#2 Sandman, 6/1 (Casse/J Ortiz) (-)

Race 11.
#6 Nonna Lynne, 6/1 (Brown/Franco) (A)
#9 Hello Beauty, 5/2 (Sisterson/Dettori) (A)
#1/1A De Paz Entry, 6/1 (B)
#3 Off Script, 9/2 (Walden/I Ortiz) (B)

Race 12.
#6 Majestic Michael, 8/1 (Green/Carmouche) (A)
#7 Fateful Lightning, 2/1 (Cox/Franco) (A)
#11 Got Stripes, 12/1 (Devaux/J Ortiz) (C)
#9 Battle Drum, 6/1 (Pletcher/I Ortiz) (C)

Pick 5 play (Simple A+B)
2,4,9 / 3,4 / 1 / 1,2,3,4,6,9 / 6,7 ($36.00)

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 12 #10 Hedge the Risk 9/2
Best Value: Race 11 #1 Night Jasmine 6/1

[moses]

Sovereignty has single handedly cost me a few thousand dollars this year. But damn, gotta respect the horse.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 12 #10 Hedge the Risk 9/2
Best Value: Race 11 #1 Night Jasmine 6/1

Nice call in the finale. I foolishly tossed that horse.

[theguarantee]

7/27:

Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Bellezza 5/2 - Didn't love a ton on this card so rather than force a longshot I'll just take a horse I think is a likely winner and if the ML holds is fair value to me.

Best Value: Race 10 $13 Salvation 6/1 - This is kind of an interesting race still and I was initially leaning toward Ennis Town but I wonder if that one might end up taking some steam and I just don't know that I fully trust it...Salvation just feels well placed here, won't take the Irad money the other Linda will (I would think)...is probably the fastest horse coming in...and while maybe lacks the upside of some of the others like Iron Sight and Prove, if they were really going to jump in with big efforts would they be in here? Maybe, but I think Salvation will get a nice trip from the outside post with some tactical speed and should hopefully get first run,

[moses]

$136.00 wagered
$243.90 returned

$8.10 for Solo Jim who ran 2nd.

Really frustrated today as I had a couple longshots come out in horizontals but didn’t include La Mahena there in Race 7 so my mid Pick 5 and Late Pick 5 are toast.

[Sethcarter]

Toga.. Race 10 going with the speed...

50 wp 1

[moses]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

Toga.. Race 10 going with the speed...

50 wp 1

I hope he wins because if the 3 or 9 win, it’ll be another 4 of 5 for me.

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

Toga.. Race 10 going with the speed...

50 wp 1

Bingo!!!!!!!!!!!!!