Two at Toga (2024)

[jms62]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Bet: $48.00
Returned: $88.50

Tough beat for Grayosh who i thought was home midstretch after a less than ideal trip. Tyler's ride on Proctor Street made the difference. Dagger because I didn't have time for a write up but would've expressed I really liked Grayosh today. Had a large win bet (for me) and may have cost me many multis pending the result of the 10th. Thought the maiden was exceptional and really thought the Wonder Again had major excuses. Didn't like the other chalks at all but unfortunately didn't like the winner at all, who in hindsight was a big overlay at todays odds off that debut with lots of upside.

Interestingly I was listening to the Bet with the Best podcast today a while after making my picks and Aragona who was the latest guest pointed out how tough it can be form the Wilson chute on the rail. Watch the head on for Principe D'Oro for a case in point. Not sure the horse was nearly good enough but that was quite the trip, even more trouble after the disaster of a start. As someone in the minority and actually likes rail draws in many instances that might be worth considering moving forward.

Onto tomorrow.

Nice Start

[theguarantee]

Best Value Race 7 #8 Critical Threat
Best Bet Race 10 #3 Heart of the Night

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Value Race 7 #8 Critical Threat
Best Bet Race 10 #3 Heart of the Night

[theguarantee]

Thanks jms and casp. Guess I bet the wrong De Paz in the last although I wonder if Heart of the Njght got out he wins....cant complain on the ride by Manny though, rode a perfect race just got unlucky.

[theguarantee]

Bet: $56.00
Returned: $109.80

[jms62]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Was worried about you haven't seen you post in a bit hope you fared ok in that weather.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 9: #3 Belouni 4/1 - Been waiting for this one to move forward and seems recently to be coming to hand. Might need another step forward tobeat Major Dude today but think there's a good chance he's sitting on a big effort.

Best Value Race 10 #7 De Regreso 6/1 - Not a huge believer in Oversubscribed yet. Feels like Manama Gold is going to take a lot of money today. Think this one can sit the right trip today and get first run.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Lakeside Getaway 10/1 - Excited to bet this one in here today. I thought the last race was quite good and she may have just gotten a little tired late. She very slowly was coming around and note after they laid her off she's had a tremendously steady work pattern that seems to indicate the last was no fluke and she's improved as a four year old. That number makes her about as good as anyone in here besides Firsttimeinforever but its fair to wonder if she's going a little off form given her last couple. If Lakeside improves second off the layoff as I expect and Firsttime doesnt get back to her better efforts I think she's a very likely winner today and should be a very nice price to find out.
Best Value: Race 3 #12 Sandrone 12/1 - Perhaps he's just not good enough and the outside post could be a problem but after a couple scratches I think Frankie can come running out of there and stalk or maybe try to tuck behind Royal King. This one clearly has issues staying on the track so I like how hes coming in today with a little additional time since the last trying to target a race like this at the Spa (vs the 2023 spacing).

Good luck

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by jms62

Was worried about you haven't seen you post in a bit hope you fared ok in that weather.

Hey Jim...house and fam okay, no power for 8 days, we had plenty generator power, AC, hot food, and coffee. There were many that had way less than us, never seen the amount of trees down that fell during Beryl.
Now playing catch up...hopefully I will get to watch more Toga...good luck!!

[theguarantee]

Sandrone lost all chance stumbling at the start but probably wasn't good enough anyway.
Lakeside Getaway got a great ride from Lezcano and was simply second best paying $9.20 to place.

Bet: $72.00
Returned: $119.00

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 6 - #2 I'm Just Kiddin 5/1
Has a race that can beat these if ready.
Best Value: Race 5 - #7 Funny Uncle 10/1
Surprised they haven't tried turf since the debut...find it interesting Maker claims and stretches out gets some improvement with Jose aboard. He stays and now they switch to turf at a realistic class level.