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#1
09-01-2023, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Friday picks. First bet: Race 4 - #4 Yacowlef 12/1. I am not hugely against Carl Spackler here but he comes back on short rest and I think this Euro import faced some pretty tough competition in his own right overseas. Jack Sisterson has had some nice success in limited attempts with shippers to the US, though notably is not very good off long layoffs. Still, this one should be a good value play at 12/1 and has shown the ability to run well off the layoff. I’m not sure how the pace plays out here but this one should have some versatility to run near the front or come from off the pace a bit. Second bet: Race 5 - #10 Tornado Road 12/1. I know that Lukas is horrible with first time starters but I can’t ignore that the 3 most recent workouts are lightning for this 2YO. The 5 Locked will be the rightful favorite here but I don’t want to take a short price on a horse that had early trouble last out (and who, for a Pletcher horse was suspiciously not relevant on the tote board at 12/1.) Locked and his 3/2 stablemate Be You were both beaten in that race by…you guessed it…a Wayne Lukas 2YO (though not a FTS.) Tornado Road worked recently with that horse and put in a 47.80 workout that day. This horse is a half-brother to Carribean Caper, who won 5 of 8 lifetime starts including the G3 Dogwood (all of his non-wins are in stakes races.) Tornado Road also gets the outside post, which I love for these young horses. Yes, they can veer off but they also tend to avoid trouble at the start. This race has some interesting entries, including Locked, Cox’s Drum Roll Please, a Chad, a couple McPeeks, a couple Weavers, and even a rare Irad Mount aboard a Bill Mott horse. But for me, I’m going to take a shot on this one, who I think is very talented. Last edited by moses : 09-01-2023 at 12:01 PM. 
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#4
09-01-2023, 03:00 PM
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Best Bet: Race 9 #9 Winners Laugh 5/1
Best Value: Race 8 #7 Hatch 10/1
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#6
09-02-2023, 02:05 PM
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Best Bet: Race 10 #1Danzigwiththestars 6/1
Best Value: Race 11 #5 Clapton 8/1
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#7
09-02-2023, 03:36 PM
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Quote:
 Hopefully he wins for you.
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#9
09-03-2023, 12:27 PM
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Best Bet: Race 6 - #5 Nikitas 5/1 - Not sure what to expect price wise here won’t be surprised if she takes money on the obvious switch to dirt but I think she’ll be pretty tough in here and hoping between the Mott, Cox and Pletcher entries the price is fair.
Best Value: Race 8 - #2/2B entry 8/1 - I’m looking to beat Dontmesswithtess who obviously can win but is just kind of meh to me. Guess you can say the same about this entry but I think they both kind of fit in here. I think Miscreant is a little dirtied up off the dirt effort but guessing that was just used to get a start under her. Some may also hold it against her that she broke her maiden on synth but she’s plenty bred for the turf, the stretch out and I think has maybe a touch of modest upside to improve on. Lezcano seemingly opted for Fast Kimmie who I glossed over at first but on a second inspection I thought if you just disregarded the starts for Gonzalez suddenly she’s a lightly raced 3yo who doesn’t have to get that much faster in here and was probably too close to too fast a pace on a tiring course last out. Good luck.
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#10
09-04-2023, 07:38 AM
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Quote:
$289.50 returned Getting desperate here and didn’t get a chance to look much at the races. Race 7 - #2 Sweetest Princess 12/1 Race 10 - #6 Gold Sweep 6/1
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#11
09-05-2023, 08:56 AM
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Freudian ran awful Giroovin was ok but got ran down by a Longshot and ultimately didn't finish as well as I thought he would. Falcone got off the duck at a big number that day and I managed to pick his other two. Hatch was a real stretch and ran like it. Winners Laugh actually ran well paying over 8 dollars to show although failed to hold me and sap off for second somehow...and did me no good for this.
Not sure what happened with Danzigwiththestars.I hated what Irad did with Clapton and thought he ran well. Not sure if he was beating the top two that day but Irad grabbed failing to secure any position and took the overland route to be kind. Speaking of Irad, and I want to be clear I have absolutely zero issue with what he did here it wad tremendous race riding and exactly what I want my jockey to do but I thought he cost Nikitis the win in Sundays 6th boxing in Prat off the turn. In a close duel to the wire I think that was the difference, she paid $5.00 to place. In the 8th Fast Kimmie got a strange journey from Lezcano but probably wasn't nearly good enough...Miscreant actually made a nice late run but that was only good enough for fourth. I thought about playing it a little safer on closing day to try to show a meet profit but whats the fun in that...Play Free Bird probably outran her odds but was ultimately a non factor...I thought Tyler was going to dig in and find the wire with Be the Boss which would've gotten me to the black (not to mention the pick 4, a pick 3 and a pretty decent sized double, ugh)...but Kendrick and Win for Gold proved just a bit better.... Was a strange meet overall we all know the negatives but still was a lot of good racing and had a lot of fun...from a gambling perspective for me personally it was super frustrating...I got off to a hot start and was up a good amount the first few weeks yet still missed out on several very narrow large score misses in multis...seemed every dq or non dq, missed step worked against me...the last few weeks I also stopped seeing the ball nearly as well...it happens..hope everyone did OK. Final tally: Wagered: $320.00 Returned: $316.70
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