Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Just saw that the 8 is scratched. I’ll take the #4 Ocean Vision, 15/1 morning line.

[theguarantee]

Will update record in the morning and will follow dahoss lead and post an extra pick given the rainout but will hold that for tomorrow since I’ll be trackside and looking more closely at the races. For today:

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Dorth Vader 6/1 - think she finds the right spot and distance today and is as likely a winner as any in here.

Best Value: Race 12: #2 Danzigwiththestars - always liked this one and seems to be spotted pretty well today. Usually fires big at Saratoga and I guess maybe is not good enough but should run big today.

Good luck

[moses]

Program Trading won to collect $14.00. Charge It flopped.

$140.00 wagered.
$130.30 returned.

I’ll have to look at tomorrows races late tonight or tomorrow morning. Maybe I’ll add a third horse to even out the cancelation on Friday. I’ll have to see how I like the card. My 2nd alternate Cogburn won at a pretty nice price.

Just horrible about Maple Leaf Mel. Absolutely horrible.

[moses]

Sunday.

Race 4 - #3 Whatlovelookslike, 9/2
Race 7 - #6 Spirit and Fire, 10/1
Race 8 - #4 Brightwork, 9/2

(Note: Spirit and Fire and Brightwork are half-sisters)

[theguarantee]

Best Value: Race 4 - #5 Myriskyaffair 9/2 - Like the way this one has tactical speed and finishes like she'll take to added ground (and already ran a decent third this route at BAQ).

Best Bet: Race 5 - # 1A Durkin's Call 3/1 - A little disappointed in the morning line but going to stick with it as I think this veteran is sitting on go today, gets to what I think is his best distance and I'm hoping the patient Dylan Davis changes tactics a bit today and drops out/makes one run. Think his closing kick has been dulled a bit sitting a bit closer to the pace going the wrong distances the last bunch of races.

Best Value #2: Race 3 - #1 Crowding Out 6/1 - Think this one is another getting back to the right distance today. Has nice, easy, turf sprint speed and I don't see a ton of pace signed on here. Went too fast two back, too far in the last...today's distance should hit her square between the eyes, sports an easy win at today's distance, track and class level and appears to be training best she has in a while in the leadup to today.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Sunday.

Race 4 - #3 Whatlovelookslike, 9/2
Race 7 - #6 Spirit and Fire, 10/1
Race 8 - #4 Brightwork, 9/2

(Note: Spirit and Fire and Brightwork are half-sisters)

I just noticed that Spirit and Fire is scratched. That kind of sucks because I liked and bet both Ozara and Burgee who won last race. But enough redboarding.

I’m going to pick a horse in race 6. The race looks loaded though I really don’t buy into the favorite the 4 horse. I like the works on the 1. The Mott 2 horse is supposed to be pretty good. The 5 has faced some tough horses. And I haven’t gotten to the Brown and Pletcher horses.

I’m going to take a shot on the 1 Empire Island who’s sitting at 6/1 right now. The horse looks very fit. Norm Casse/Santana hitting at a good rate. Giddy up.

[moses]

Announcing that the remaining turf races will be OFF at post time of race 6 (first leg of pick 5), is not great.

[jms62]

Nothing like being 7 FU**ING Deep and lose.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Nothing like being 7 FU**ING Deep and lose.

Pick 4?

The OFF races are ALL for races 7,9,10 now for the pick 5 and 6.

[theguarantee]

Wednesday, 8/9:

Best Bet: Race 8 #7 Coppa Girl 9/2 - Looking to try to take on Raging Sea today and I think Coppa Girl is the one with the upside to do so. She learned to break last time and ran a hole in the wind proving she can now break, rate kindly and finish up. I guess there has to be some concern she really liked the track and the Ellis results were a bit wonky but I think there is some real talent here and everything Brad Cox is sending to Saratoga seems ever more live than usual this year.

Best Value: Race 9 #3 Know It All Audrey 8/1 - She'll be overlooked in this now small field and perhaps it's with good reason against these but I've been waiting for her to run back off that 7/20 race. She was in tight looking loaded the whole way around until things really went poorly and she had to steady very aggressively and lost all chance. She was then forced to circle the field very wide and still came with a big run for third behind a very sharp Mosienko and another Linda Rice runner who was white hot at the time. She galloped out very strong. I don't know if she's good enough in here but I have to give her a shot today off that trip at a square price.

Good luck.

[jms62]

LOL Great... My Will pays in the DBL were 18.80 and 31.00 and I get a 3.35 ALL payout... Why cancel the 5th when bets already made? Oh let me guess... If you cancel from the end NYRA gets their P5 dough. Ok... I'll shutup and bet now.

[theguarantee]

Thursday, 8/10:

Best Bet: Race 6 #3 Le Dom Bro 5/2
Best Value: Race 10 #4 Dreamwithinadream 20/1