Quote:
Originally Posted by Real Quiet
In a puzzler Cruzan picked a 12-1 morning
line horse in the finale but he went off as the favorite at 2-1. Probably just a bad ML looking at
the last 3 races and a bad beat in our pick and pray format.
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RQ, congrats on your ROI win. Your observation about a bad ML is all too true - we see that all too frequently, most often in lower quality races or maiden races. Some linemakers are more conscientious than others; many do a good job identifying their top one or two picks and then sort of slap the rest of the field together. In more than one race at the Fair Grounds I've noticed that there might be 3 or 4 horses in an 8 horse race all of which are listed at 6-1 odds. After the race I've looked at the chart and noted large discrepancies.
When playing a race, I like to watch the tote and make my wager late in the cycle when the betting pattern has been established. With our contest format that isn't possible, so the only solution is to try to make my own ML based on what I can discern from the pp's. Unfortunately, it can be a very time consuming process.
03-20-2023, 08:11 PM
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