Saratoga Two a Day

[Dahoss]

Day 39

IMO one of the tougher cards of the meet and my hangover isn't helping.

Best bet: Race 3- #4 Forever Dreaming
I think she was facing much, much better earlier this year in New Orleans and Kentucky. She should be able to sit a perfect trip in 3rd right behind the speed and take over coming into the stretch and hold off the closers. And ultimately I think the other contenders have a lot of holes, whereas I think this is a reasonable drop for her to a spot she should flourish.

Longshot: Race 9- #2 Barrel of Quests
I'm stabbing here and I get why the entire world likes Timbuktu who was wide on the inner last out throughout. But he didn't do much running and isn't most reliable sort and will be way overbet. He'll be on my multi's but I'm not crazy about him. I like Barrel of Quests off a no shot ride by (who else) Jose Ortiz. He projected to be the clear pace setter (and his trainer said he would be pre race) against a few horses that would be odds on in here and Ortiz took him back. He had no shot that day and I'm glad to see Donk switched riders. Two back he was just behind a horse who won the Timbuktu race last time. He's run better when he is involved early and there is very little speed in here. I'm hoping Dylan sends and takes them a long way

[casp0555]

nice hangover capping hossy

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by casp0555

nice hangover capping hossy

Thank you buddy

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 39

IMO one of the tougher cards of the meet and my hangover isn't helping.

Best bet: Race 3- #4 Forever Dreaming
I think she was facing much, much better earlier this year in New Orleans and Kentucky. She should be able to sit a perfect trip in 3rd right behind the speed and take over coming into the stretch and hold off the closers. And ultimately I think the other contenders have a lot of holes, whereas I think this is a reasonable drop for her to a spot she should flourish.

Longshot: Race 9- #2 Barrel of Quests
I'm stabbing here and I get why the entire world likes Timbuktu who was wide on the inner last out throughout. But he didn't do much running and isn't most reliable sort and will be way overbet. He'll be on my multi's but I'm not crazy about him. I like Barrel of Quests off a no shot ride by (who else) Jose Ortiz. He projected to be the clear pace setter (and his trainer said he would be pre race) against a few horses that would be odds on in here and Ortiz took him back. He had no shot that day and I'm glad to see Donk switched riders. Two back he was just behind a horse who won the Timbuktu race last time. He's run better when he is involved early and there is very little speed in here. I'm hoping Dylan sends and takes them a long way

Nice work!

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

Nice work!

Thanks Seth

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 39

IMO one of the tougher cards of the meet and my hangover isn't helping.

Best bet: Race 3- #4 Forever Dreaming
I think she was facing much, much better earlier this year in New Orleans and Kentucky. She should be able to sit a perfect trip in 3rd right behind the speed and take over coming into the stretch and hold off the closers. And ultimately I think the other contenders have a lot of holes, whereas I think this is a reasonable drop for her to a spot she should flourish.

Longshot: Race 9- #2 Barrel of Quests
I'm stabbing here and I get why the entire world likes Timbuktu who was wide on the inner last out throughout. But he didn't do much running and isn't most reliable sort and will be way overbet. He'll be on my multi's but I'm not crazy about him. I like Barrel of Quests off a no shot ride by (who else) Jose Ortiz. He projected to be the clear pace setter (and his trainer said he would be pre race) against a few horses that would be odds on in here and Ortiz took him back. He had no shot that day and I'm glad to see Donk switched riders. Two back he was just behind a horse who won the Timbuktu race last time. He's run better when he is involved early and there is very little speed in here. I'm hoping Dylan sends and takes them a long way

Forever Dreaming got the trip I envisioned and showed her class wearing down the pacesetter late to pay $16.80 to win and $8.20 to place.

Barrel of Quests kind of got a more aggressive ride but ultimately isn't good enough.

Meet totals
$312 wagered
$337.20 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 40

Last day of what has been a very enjoyable and profitable meet. I'm always reminded that this is the best game in the world because while luck plays a small part, you truly do get out what you put in.

Best bet: Race 10- Cocktail Moments
I flirted with putting Cupid's Heart here in the last. I've been waiting a long time for her return off a ride I wasn't crazy about last time and I think she's very good, but I think she'll be too short oddswise. I went with Cocktail Moments in the 10th. Looks like Junior (or his agent) had a choice here and ends up here. This is a talented filly who was dull last time but got a little break and has been working well in preparation for this. Is drawn well, figures to sit a good trip and will be a handful in the lane

Longshot: Race 6- #3 I'm Fine
I prefer her on grass, but if the race gets moved off she's not bad on dirt, so I will keep her here dirt or turf. Sat a decent trip last time but then had big trouble early stretch. Appeared to have run and a tiring horse backed up right into her. She checked hard and tried to get around, losing all momentum. Freshened since then, prior turf form fits and she should be every bit of the ML if not higher

[blackthroatedwind]

Too bad you drove everyone off the board, Dahoss, before they got to see this sensational display of handicapping.

At least a certain someone lied with his "I'm leaving" post.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Too bad you drove everyone off the board, Dahoss, before they got to see this sensational display of handicapping.

At least a certain someone lied with his "I'm leaving" post.

Appreciate it. You deserve a lot of kudos yourself. You had a terrific meet.

[gamblin4ever]

Nice job

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 40

Last day of what has been a very enjoyable and profitable meet. I'm always reminded that this is the best game in the world because while luck plays a small part, you truly do get out what you put in.

Best bet: Race 10- Cocktail Moments
I flirted with putting Cupid's Heart here in the last. I've been waiting a long time for her return off a ride I wasn't crazy about last time and I think she's very good, but I think she'll be too short oddswise. I went with Cocktail Moments in the 10th. Looks like Junior (or his agent) had a choice here and ends up here. This is a talented filly who was dull last time but got a little break and has been working well in preparation for this. Is drawn well, figures to sit a good trip and will be a handful in the lane

Longshot: Race 6- #3 I'm Fine
I prefer her on grass, but if the race gets moved off she's not bad on dirt, so I will keep her here dirt or turf. Sat a decent trip last time but then had big trouble early stretch. Appeared to have run and a tiring horse backed up right into her. She checked hard and tried to get around, losing all momentum. Freshened since then, prior turf form fits and she should be every bit of the ML if not higher

I'm Fine wasn't fine but Cocktail Moments got the job done, paying $7.30 and $3.30.

Before the final tally I want to highlight my favorite post from this summer.

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

On to the 2 a day. You’d Think that you would’ve learned something over the past two years it’s a stupid concept. you have to have a $10 winner every other day just to break even .can’t you get that through your thick ****ing head. It’s not happening for a whole meet. You’re not that good anymore. Everyone has access to replays now.

Meet totals
$320 wagered
$347.80 returned

Thanks to everyone who was supportive this summer. And a special thanks to everyone who wasn't. I feed off the hate. Always have. Special shout out to Konk, who had so much to say for so long and then made two posts all summer. Wonder why

Still some good racing at KY Downs and Del Mar left before we head to Belmont at Aqueduct.

[theguarantee]

Awesome work man. The positive ROI is super impressive but I’ve always appreciated the explanations. I can attest it’s hard enough to post everyday (I missed a few) but to usually also explain why and post a profit on a WP wager structure is truly impressive. Special shout out to the explanations - I wish I didn’t have to post so many picks without because to me without explaining why posting picks online is somewhat worthless. That’s not meant to be a knock to anyone who does on this board. Anyway, appreciate all the thoughts and hope it translated to a profitable meet for you.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Awesome work man. The positive ROI is super impressive but I’ve always appreciated the explanations. I can attest it’s hard enough to post everyday (I missed a few) but to usually also explain why and post a profit on a WP wager structure is truly impressive. Special shout out to the explanations - I wish I didn’t have to post so many picks without because to me without explaining why posting picks online is somewhat worthless. That’s not meant to be a knock to anyone who does on this board. Anyway, appreciate all the thoughts and hope it translated to a profitable meet for you.

Couple things here to explain my "worthless" posting.

There are many ways to play this game. For me it is a Quantitative pursuit as I have been a Computer Geek Long before it became Chic. I export data from standard Horse Racing Software into my database and then apply my process model which has taken me over 1000 hours to develop and refine and always be a work in progress. From that comes my model and my reports. I view them to make my picks but don't blindly use them. I use additional reports to see what factors are trending over last 5-10-20 races and look at what factors long shots tend to have and my chances for a long shot in the particular race based upon Outlook and if this type of situation is prone to longshots. All this is for the specific track distance surface I am playing.

This process works for me and is different than the traditional methods you and Hoss and many people use. Your process leads itself to great explanations and analysis. My process does not as folks would have no idea what the factors I am citing even are and those that do maybe smart enough to reverse engineer it.

I built this after my first NHC like 9 years ago based upon a simple response I got on this board from a very smart and successful tournament player who I always admired due to his background and success. After my first tournament I noticed many people in the room where using the same software. I posted on these boards something like

"If so many people use the same software how can any of them win as they all will be choosing the same horses?"

Paul Weizer replied with one sentence. "You seem smart enough, you'll figure it out"

It hit me that the Software was simply the instrument and my process be it good or bad will produce the music.

Sorry for the long winded post its been a long summer. Quite bored as I'm currently staying in some random hotel in Virginia for a week as I needed to take my mom down here to take care of my brother who Friday had Open Heart Surgery.

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by jms62

Couple things here to explain my "worthless" posting.

There are many ways to play this game. For me it is a Quantitative pursuit as I have been a Computer Geek Long before it became Chic. I export data from standard Horse Racing Software into my database and then apply my process model which has taken me over 1000 hours to develop and refine and always be a work in progress. From that comes my model and my reports. I view them to make my picks but don't blindly use them. I use additional reports to see what factors are trending over last 5-10-20 races and look at what factors long shots tend to have and my chances for a long shot in the particular race based upon Outlook and if this type of situation is prone to longshots. All this is for the specific track distance surface I am playing.

This process works for me and is different than the traditional methods you and Hoss and many people use. Your process leads itself to great explanations and analysis. My process does not as folks would have no idea what the factors I am citing even are and those that do maybe smart enough to reverse engineer it.

I built this after my first NHC like 9 years ago based upon a simple response I got on this board from a very smart and successful tournament player who I always admired due to his background and success. After my first tournament I noticed many people in the room where using the same software. I posted on these boards something like

"If so many people use the same software how can any of them win as they all will be choosing the same horses?"

Paul Weizer replied with one sentence. "You seem smart enough, you'll figure it out"

It hit me that the Software was simply the instrument and my process be it good or bad will produce the music.

Sorry for the long winded post its been a long summer. Quite bored as I'm currently staying in some random hotel in Virginia for a week as I needed to take my mom down here to take care of my brother who Friday had Open Heart Surgery.

Good luck... I hope it went well... In AC at the boat show. In your neck of the woods for the next week then my season starts. The best to you and your family. Thanks for posting

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'm Fine wasn't fine but Cocktail Moments got the job done, paying $7.30 and $3.30.

Before the final tally I want to highlight my favorite post from this summer.



Meet totals
$320 wagered
$347.80 returned

Thanks to everyone who was supportive this summer. And a special thanks to everyone who wasn't. I feed off the hate. Always have. Special shout out to Konk, who had so much to say for so long and then made two posts all summer. Wonder why

Still some good racing at KY Downs and Del Mar left before we head to Belmont at Aqueduct.

Great Job and a very difficult task to Grind it out like this. Great insight into how you do things.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Meet totals
$320 wagered
$347.80 returned

Thanks to everyone who was supportive this summer. And a special thanks to everyone who wasn't. I feed off the hate. Always have. Special shout out to Konk, who had so much to say for so long and then made two posts all summer. Wonder why

Still some good racing at KY Downs and Del Mar left before we head to Belmont at Aqueduct.

Hossy..

Terrific job all meet.. Well done!

(And hate fire always strong)..

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Awesome work man. The positive ROI is super impressive but I’ve always appreciated the explanations. I can attest it’s hard enough to post everyday (I missed a few) but to usually also explain why and post a profit on a WP wager structure is truly impressive. Special shout out to the explanations - I wish I didn’t have to post so many picks without because to me without explaining why posting picks online is somewhat worthless. That’s not meant to be a knock to anyone who does on this board. Anyway, appreciate all the thoughts and hope it translated to a profitable meet for you.

Thanks man. Was taxing but glad to hear it was appreciated.

Originally Posted by jms62

Great Job and a very difficult task to Grind it out like this. Great insight into how you do things.

Thanks buddy.

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hossy..

Terrific job all meet.. Well done!

(And hate fire always strong)..

Thanks Steve.

[Conrad]

Well Done !