Two at Toga (2022)

[theguarantee]

Best bet - Race 4 #3 Ruse 3/1
I just think he’s the best of these and exits a race where he did most of the dirty work and came up short. I expect a much cleaner trip today and think that puts him in the winners circle.

Best value - Race 10 #11 Succulent 10/1
I seem to be landing on a lot of Dylan horses of late which is unintentional but no mind to me. With this one I just like the steady improvement since getting on the right surface. Has yet to hit the board but is working toward that and going to be a great price today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best bet - Race 4 #3 Ruse 3/1
I just think he’s the best of these and exits a race where he did most of the dirty work and came up short. I expect a much cleaner trip today and think that puts him in the winners circle.

Best value - Race 10 #11 Succulent 10/1
I seem to be landing on a lot of Dylan horses of late which is unintentional but no mind to me. With this one I just like the steady improvement since getting on the right surface. Has yet to hit the board but is working toward that and going to be a great price today.

Good luck. I know David Aragona has been waiting for Ruse to run back so I looked closely at him but I’m skeptical of that horse in this race as Cotton runs again and Not Phar Now is added to the mix. There’s a decent chance he gets caught up in the pace again.

I know you didn’t ask but wanted to add because I was strongly considering him…just nervous about the pace scenario. I’m probably going to watch odds on this one. Tough race, though I want no parts of Barrage or Straw into Gold at short prices. I may take a shot on Cotton if he ends up 12/1 or higher.

[theguarantee]

I hear you - I love horses like Ruse though that get forced wide on the turf chasing pace and then make that move still turning for home then get caught. Now moves inside and I think is a very likely winner today, though I hear your concerns. Good luck with Cotton if you play…I liked her two back and I don’t know if it’s just in my head but kind of felt like that was the time and now I’ve moved on.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

I hear you - I love horses like Ruse though that get forced wide on the turf chasing pace and then make that move still turning for home then get caught. Now moves inside and I think is a very likely winner today, though I hear your concerns. Good luck with Cotton if you play…I liked her two back and I don’t know if it’s just in my head but kind of felt like that was the time and now I’ve moved on.

I am playing a trifecta in that race, I’ll post it to a thread.

I think we are all taking a shot in race 10. Just seems like a good race to take a stab. No horse stands out imo.

[moses]

Well I was wrong. Heartbreaker for Ruse right there.

[theguarantee]

Friday, 8/26
Not that interested in today's card once it went off the turf.

Best Bet - Race 8 #1 Ice Princess 8/1
Will obviously be much shorter now, seems like the only one I can really make to beat Make Mischief with.

Best Value - Race 9 #10 Quickflash 15/1
Key Point might be a cinch but think Quickflash can outrun odds and maybe hit the board. Not much of a winning type but stranger things have happened.

[theguarantee]

Travers Day Saturday, 8/27

Best Bet - Race 9 #2 Search Results 7/2
Just think this race should set up for her and have always loved this one...Can't see how they go nearly as fast today and I think the way Search Results blew past Letruska was emblematic of her consistent turn of foot for a dirt horse. Not fully confident she will time it perfectly enough to hold off Clairere late but at the expected odds will take a shot.

Best Value - Race 11 #4 Gilded Age 30/1
Probably an insane play and there are some others today I'm intrigued by that I'll list below just for the sake of it. Gilded Age is bred for this through the gills. While Angela Renee was ultimately disappointing and maybe you could make a case he's following suit the breeding is fantastic and the fact is he keeps getting a little better each start. While I do think the winner is most likely Epicenter or Cyberknife I think he can run second or third and will be bomber odds. If they don't show up who knows...he's also been campaigned like he's better than he looks on paper. This is a total stab I admit but seems like an OK enough spot/day to do so.

[theguarantee]

Couple others today:

Race 6 #4 Jet Speed 8/1
Michelle Hemingway has been live in NY this year and certainly has the background to be up and coming, last trip was insane.

Race 8 #1 Conagher 7/2
Between the lasix and the fact that we won't get quite enough price I thought about making him my best bet of the day but couldn't quite get there. He's a serious horse that can really run...totally random comp but kind of reminds me of Flashing in the Test when Cat's Move took all the money, no real knock but this horse is a confirmed runner.

Race 10 #6 Gufo 9/2
I originally kind of thought Broome just towered over this field but I've had a nagging feeling all week that this isn't necessarily ideal for a horse that runs like Broome three turns on the inner...but I couldn't really get behind anyone else and the class just appears pretty daunting...but now I've talked myself back into Gufo, maybe stupidly...that said might be a better price today than usual, I trust Joel in a three turn 1.5 inner turf race than most, and he's probably best at this distance. Just feels like Broome and him are supposed to be the two finishing best in here and I'll take the value on Gufo today, especially since I think there are a couple question marks about whether or not Broome will bring his top form (in which case he likely wins).

Good luck to everyone today.

[Dahoss]

Gross beat with Search Results but great call with Gufo. Hope you made out well there.

[theguarantee]

^Thanks - mixed bag but I did OK, pretty brutal with Search Results though if she held on I have the pick-5 for $6 instead caught it for a buck. Can't complain on a decent day though I guess. My picks have been pretty brutal of late, some nibblers and tough beats but that's about it, updated total below.

Total Wagered: $252.00
Total Returned: $182.90

Best Bet - Race 9 #4 Lady Rocket 6/1
Interesting Ballerina and I think you can make a case for any of them in here, even Travel Column if you want to be that creative, I landed on Lady Rocket ultimately though. While the Go for Wand seems like the aberration on paper, the Madison was a heck of an effort given the pace...no shame in losing at a mile to Search Results and it seemed like they used the Chicago as a confidence booster to point here. I really don't like Bella Sofia in here and I think that most of the stalkers/closers will be content to let those two go up front...think she can shake loose of her turning for home and hopefully gain enough separation from the closers.

Best Value - Race 5 #6 Irwin 6/1
Could've flipped best bet/value but I wanted to use this one today. The way I see this race my biggest concern is if Microphone is just too good and beats a pretty average field. If not I think it really becomes a battle between whether you prefer Shawdyshawdyshawdy or Irwin and I think most will be gravitating to the former as evidenced by the ML...I happen to think Irwin has actually run every bit as well and perhaps better than Sss the last two times they met. He also has more tactical speed and I just think is super logical today and goes out for solid but underrated connections compared to some of the other outfits in here.

[afraidofthedark]

Agree with you on Irwin. Have chips on him on top and 2nd.

UGH....50 and change 1/2 equals no chance