Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

I haven't gotten a chance to look into these races quite as much as I'd like...but I'm not sure how busy I'm going to be over the next two days so I'm going to post my initial thoughts and may tweak them later on.

After Day 2
Record: 4 1-1-1
Total wagered: $16.00
Total returned: $20.00

Sunday, July 17

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Nobals 9/2 ML, Rivelli/I.Ortiz. I love the early speed in these turf sprints and I think Nobals is the fastest of the fast here. The main contender, Big Invasion, draws the outside post and I'm not sure how much I like him to get an easy trip. We'll see...but I'll be betting on the speed and hoping Irad is able to hold on down the stretch.

Best Value: Race 7 #11 Classic Lynne 6/1 ML, Sharp/Gaffalione. I'm not sure what went into the decision to put her in a stakes race on dirt but she's been off the track since then and now returns for her 3 year old debut on what I think is her preferred surface and distance. If you go two back, she showed some professionalism in her maiden win and defeated Russiarussiarussia that day fairly convincingly. She's a big, strong looking horse with a nice stride that, if she improves at all, is the horse to beat out of this bunch. Her works look good. No reason to think she isn't ready to fire.

[theguarantee]

Set Piece had a brutal trip but probably should've just been a clear second to City Man. Bali's Shade was a bad pick. Right idea, wrong horse.

Saturday, 7/16:
Best Bet - Race 8 6 In Italian 6/1 - Kind of surprised at how many others are picking her in here today and wonder if we'll get the full 6/1 for that reason. That said, I thought Irad really mismanaged her speed last two slowing down the race two back (wouldn't have mattered given the way the Churchill turf was playing of course) and then moving too early/aggressively last out. I think Rougir needs more cut in the ground and I guess I'm a glutton for punishment but I still haven't fully come around on Bleecker Street. I like the switch to Joel Rosario and trust him to get more out of her today.

Best Value - Race 10 6 Mo Strike 8/1 - Ran Eli’s Promise into the ground and then returned to run 24 beyer points higher breaking maiden, granted with only a 59. But several runners that were smoked in here have come back for big improvements. Think the second and third place finishers are pretty nice Pletcher/Asmussen runners and this horse really dug in/held sway late. Really just felt like he was hitting top gear and expect a step forward today. In a race it seems many are taking some crazy swings I actually think Forte and Andiamo a Firenze are legit and wouldn't be surprised if either won. I have a feeling Mo Strike is a pretty nice horse though and today would appear to be the day to try to cash on that opinion.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I haven't gotten a chance to look into these races quite as much as I'd like...but I'm not sure how busy I'm going to be over the next two days so I'm going to post my initial thoughts and may tweak them later on.

After Day 2
Record: 4 1-1-1
Total wagered: $16.00
Total returned: $20.00

Sunday, July 17

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Nobals 9/2 ML, Rivelli/I.Ortiz. I love the early speed in these turf sprints and I think Nobals is the fastest of the fast here. The main contender, Big Invasion, draws the outside post and I'm not sure how much I like him to get an easy trip. We'll see...but I'll be betting on the speed and hoping Irad is able to hold on down the stretch.

Best Value: Race 7 #11 Classic Lynne 6/1 ML, Sharp/Gaffalione. I'm not sure what went into the decision to put her in a stakes race on dirt but she's been off the track since then and now returns for her 3 year old debut on what I think is her preferred surface and distance. If you go two back, she showed some professionalism in her maiden win and defeated Russiarussiarussia that day fairly convincingly. She's a big, strong looking horse with a nice stride that, if she improves at all, is the horse to beat out of this bunch. Her works look good. No reason to think she isn't ready to fire.

After Day 3. $24.00 wagered, $20.00 returned.

Classic Lynn is scratched. Going to go with Oak Loves a Fight in race 10 instead.