6/11 (BEL): 154th Belmont Stakes Day

[moses]

Does anyone know the record of horses in the Belmont with only 4 career starts and no starts as a 2 year old? Two of the top four ML choices fit that bill and I’ve got to think those horses don’t have a good track record in the race.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Does anyone know the record of horses in the Belmont with only 4 career starts and no starts as a 2 year old? Two of the top four ML choices fit that bill and I’ve got to think those horses don’t have a good track record in the race.

Closest I can think of was Justify. No starts as 2 year old but 5 at 3. No one else comes to mind.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Closest I can think of was Justify. No starts as 2 year old but 5 at 3. No one else comes to mind.

I did a quick look and found Summer Bird had no starts at 2 and only 4 career starts. Tonalist had only 4 career starts but did have a start at two.

This, of course, says nothing of the number of horses with similar resumes who did not win.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

I did a quick look and found Summer Bird had no starts at 2 and only 4 career starts. Tonalist had only 4 career starts but did have a start at two.

This, of course, says nothing of the number of horses with similar resumes who did not win.

Many moons ago this may have been a bigger issue but I wouldn’t worry about it today. Horses dont run like the used to. There are no juggernauts in this field. I’ll take my chances with Creative Minister which fits your original post.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Many moons ago this may have been a bigger issue but I wouldn’t worry about it today. Horses dont run like the used to. There are no juggernauts in this field. I’ll take my chances with Creative Minister which fits your original post.

That’s the horse I’m leaning toward. I don’t like We The People at all. Creative Minister concerns me a little with the inexperience and with so many races crammed into a small time frame…but I also think his third in the Preakness is probably the best performance of any horse in the race and he can back it up with some other pretty good races around two turns.

But just trying to see if there is something I’m missing.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

That’s the horse I’m leaning toward. I don’t like We The People at all. Creative Minister concerns me a little with the inexperience and with so many races crammed into a small time frame…but I also think his third in the Preakness is probably the best performance of any horse in the race and he can back it up with some other pretty good races around two turns.

But just trying to see if there is something I’m missing.

I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if he’s ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. I’ll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if he’s ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. I’ll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.

I actually think he may have more early speed than the 1. I’m totally unconvinced that We The People gets an easy lead.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if he’s ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. I’ll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.

Mike Welsch has reported that Creative Minister was “hot in the coat” after some light work two different times this week. Not sure what to make of it. I’m still going to roll with him.