My Derby Top 10

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

I'm a big believer in Timeform figures. Epicenter has had 6 weeks so obviously he could improve plenty from the LA Derby figure but his top two numbers are 113/118. This puts him on par with horses like Zandon (108/119) and Smile Happy (108/118) and behind horses like Mo Donegal (121), Messier (127/123), and Taiba (125). That alone has me hesitant about him.

But I also feel like he got an easy trip in the Risen Star with his main rivals not at their peak and then got another easy trip in the Louisiana Derby with his main rivals huge question marks as far as their overall abilities. His ability to rate was impressive and that race rightfully put him at the top of the Derby contender list...but I'm skeptical given the speed figures and my doubts about him getting another easy trip. Maybe I should be more skeptical of Zandon. I don't know. He could easily run into trouble and not finish well. Epicenter is probably more likely than Zandon to be able to work out a good trip for himself.

There is still a lot of time. I may change my mind another 50 times before Saturday.

I understand the timeform figures and some people love them. I think they are a good tool as with beyer figures (epicenter 102) but I don't make them a deciding factor I use them more to look for trends and eliminate horses. I like my derby horses closer to pace but everyone has different strategy. Thats what makes this race fun.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I understand the timeform figures and some people love them. I think they are a good tool as with beyer figures (epicenter 102) but I don't make them a deciding factor I use them more to look for trends and eliminate horses. I like my derby horses closer to pace but everyone has different strategy. Thats what makes this race fun.

Fair enough.

Some times I knock a horse for having relatively clean trips but horses that consistently do that often have a reason for that. In Epicenter’s case, he has good early speed and can generally put himself in good position to work out a clean trip. So maybe I shouldn’t be so dismissive of him. All his figures are trending up as well…so there is a lot to like about him.

I may be talking myself into him, at least for place/show.