5/1 (CD): 147th Kentucky Derby

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I like Colonel Liam a lot but Ride a Comet and Digital Age are both interesting at probably pretty good prices. Still trying to figure out how I’m going to play this race.

The entire Pick 5 sequence is pretty exciting, imo.

[Hoblin]

Originally Posted by moses

I like Colonel Liam a lot but Ride a Comet and Digital Age are both interesting at probably pretty good prices. Still trying to figure out how I’m going to play this race.

The entire Pick 5 sequence is pretty exciting, imo.

The interesting thing is that in the race prior to the pick-5, Gamine is the 1/5 favorite in the 20-cent pick-6.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

I like Colonel Liam a lot but Ride a Comet and Digital Age are both interesting at probably pretty good prices. Still trying to figure out how I’m going to play this race.

The entire Pick 5 sequence is pretty exciting, imo.

Viewing Colonel Liam as a “Bricks and Mortar” type single...just think he’s the best turf horse in the country and you can dissect speed figs and trips and start to talk yourself into others (I did often opposing B&M was my point) but at the end of the day to me he’s the most likely winner Fri/Sat and I’m going to lean heavy.

Hope you post your thoughts I’ll try to tag on, good luck Moses.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Viewing Colonel Liam as a “Bricks and Mortar” type single...just think he’s the best turf horse in the country and you can dissect speed figs and trips and start to talk yourself into others (I did often opposing B&M was my point) but at the end of the day to me he’s the most likely winner Fri/Sat and I’m going to lean heavy.

Hope you post your thoughts I’ll try to tag on, good luck Moses.

Colonel Liam is the most likely winner on Friday and Saturday? Let's bet $1000, I'll take another horse, and you can have Colonel Liam. If the both win, or they both lose, no bet. But if one wins and the other loses, the loser pays.

I'll take Gamine.

You're on.

[theguarantee]

Fair enough Andy. I’m going to walk back my statement. Still think Colonel Liam is an extremely likely winner and will be the horse I pass all my multis through...touché though, you are correct

[pucknut]

Andy
Do you like Liam in the race, if not , where are you leaning.
Gamine is on paper a free square

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Andy
Do you like Liam in the race, if not , where are you leaning.
Gamine is on paper a free square

I don’t have my pps in front of me but am leaning to Domestic Spending and Count Again. Colonel Liam can surely win but this is a MUCH tougher spot and he’s coming off consecutive soft trips.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Viewing Colonel Liam as a “Bricks and Mortar” type single...just think he’s the best turf horse in the country and you can dissect speed figs and trips and start to talk yourself into others (I did often opposing B&M was my point) but at the end of the day to me he’s the most likely winner Fri/Sat and I’m going to lean heavy.

Hope you post your thoughts I’ll try to tag on, good luck Moses.

I will likely be leaning heavily on him as well and spread a bit in Races 9, 10, and 12.

I keep trying to make a case against Gamine and I'm not sure there is much of one. The one question I have is whether lack of lasix will impact her at all if she were to be pressured but I'm not sure anyone in this race can pressure her in any meaningful way. I may fire off a small Pick 3 or something where I use Bell's the One but I don't really want to commit any large amount of money on betting against Gamine.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

I will likely be leaning heavily on him as well and spread a bit in Races 9, 10, and 12.

I keep trying to make a case against Gamine and I'm not sure there is much of one. The one question I have is whether lack of lasix will impact her at all if she were to be pressured but I'm not sure anyone in this race can pressure her in any meaningful way. I may fire off a small Pick 3 or something where I use Bell's the One but I don't really want to commit any large amount of money on betting against Gamine.

No lasix didn’t seem to bother her in her comeback race.

She’s probably my least favorite horse in training but the only question mark is her lone okay effort last year was at Churchill but that was more a two turn thing than her not liking it there IMO

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

No lasix didn’t seem to bother her in her comeback race.

She’s probably my least favorite horse in training but the only question mark is her lone okay effort last year was at Churchill but that was more a two turn thing than her not liking it there IMO

Agreed on all that. She is probably unbeatable around one turn.

My lasix comment is admittedly a reach but she got a soft pace in her most recent race so I wonder if she’d struggle more if anyone could pressure her. On lasix, it didn’t seem to matter. But either way, I don’t see anyone really pressing her so it’s probably a moot point.