Aunt Pearl A Single ?

[goodcopy]

Race # 7 Churchill Downs
Is this the one single I need for the All Stakes pick-5?
l have lost more money than Berny Mahoff on these big day obvious singles but this one look very solid!

[Dahoss]

Obviously she’s the one to beat and should be alone on the lead.

But won’t she be a single on a lot of peoples tickets?

[RolloTomasi]

There was probably a similar post about this same race back in 2019, when Newspaperofrecord was odds-on at 1-5 with a similar resume as Aunt Pearl.

Don't know how many have tried, but in the last 30 years and since the race was switched to the turf, no horse has won it while making its seasonal debut.

[Alabama Stakes]

She apppears miles better than that field. If she’s 3/5 or more it might be a little alarming, but Ken Singleton for me.

[senator L]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

There was probably a similar post about this same race back in 2019, when Newspaperofrecord was odds-on at 1-5 with a similar resume as Aunt Pearl.

Don't know how many have tried, but in the last 30 years and since the race was switched to the turf, no horse has won it while making its seasonal debut.

That's awesome handicapping In this field Aunt Pearl
is the only filly who is a graded stakes winner on turf
and a grade I to boot

[Dahoss]

Worth noting that the filly Postnup just beat, Social Dilemma, came back to lose by a nose against older fillies and mares yesterday.

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Obviously she’s the one to beat and should be alone on the lead.

But won’t she be a single on a lot of peoples tickets?

MY advice is don't be afraid to single even if lots of people are doing similarly. ESPECIALLY on days where the pool size is gigantic. You needn't go back far to find a 100k pick 5 with a universal single. (Bricks and Mortar) The single allows you to pick horses otherwise left off. The single instead of 2 deep allows you to use 6 instead of 3 somewhere else. Best way to catch a bomb is to use more bombs...

Not redboarding but the majority of my major pick 5 hits I could have had for a buck instead of .50 because I decided not to single and in retrospect should have.

This game isn't about the money you win, it's about the money you don't leave on the table when you are correct. That's where the winning players reside.

IMO

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by fantini33

MY advice is don't be afraid to single even if lots of people are doing similarly. ESPECIALLY on days where the pool size is gigantic. You needn't go back far to find a 100k pick 5 with a universal single. (Bricks and Mortar) The single allows you to pick horses otherwise left off. The single instead of 2 deep allows you to use 6 instead of 3 somewhere else. Best way to catch a bomb is to use more bombs...

Not redboarding but the majority of my major pick 5 hits I could have had for a buck instead of .50 because I decided not to single and in retrospect should have.

This game isn't about the money you win, it's about the money you don't leave on the table when you are correct. That's where the winning players reside.

IMO

Can’t disagree with anything you said. Most of my big scores were with larger than minimum increments in multi’s and pressing where you have a strong opinion.

I guess the discussion really is...is she a good single? I don’t think so, but I can also see why she is for a lot of people. She’s just not the kind of horse I want to rely on.

[knickslions2]

While Aunt Pearl looks to be tough here especially on front end no way can I single this horse after 5 month layoff here. I’m very intrigued by the 1 horse Postnup who is moving up in class but has some nice races. Also going to add Pletchers horse Zaajel who could be very dangerous first time on turf. Just starting the other races but looks like 1,6,7 here for me.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

While Aunt Pearl looks to be tough here especially on front end no way can I single this horse after 5 month layoff here. I’m very intrigued by the 1 horse Postnup who is moving up in class but has some nice races. Also going to add Pletchers horse Zaajel who could be very dangerous first time on turf. Just starting the other races but looks like 1,6,7 here for me.

Step aside Tom, I'm going to tell you how this one is going to shake out. On Thursday I'm going to convince myself she's a free square and structure accordingly. Come Friday when I'm actually putting the ticket in, I'm then going to convince myself she's beatable and go 5-deep, axe bombs out of the rest of the sequence and watch her win by 10, "if I've seen it once I've seen it a million times"

-bt-

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Step aside Tom, I'm going to tell you how this one is going to shake out. On Thursday I'm going to convince myself she's a free square and structure accordingly. Come Friday when I'm actually putting the ticket in, I'm then going to convince myself she's beatable and go 5-deep, axe bombs out of the rest of the sequence and watch her win by 10, "if I've seen it once I've seen it a million times"

-bt-

LOL

[goodcopy]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Step aside Tom, I'm going to tell you how this one is going to shake out. On Thursday I'm going to convince myself she's a free square and structure accordingly. Come Friday when I'm actually putting the ticket in, I'm then going to convince myself she's beatable and go 5-deep, axe bombs out of the rest of the sequence and watch her win by 10, "if I've seen it once I've seen it a million times"

-bt-

I'm going to single her, then single the 10 in the oaks for $5.00 pick 5 with bombs in middle 3 races then use 1,2,3,45,6,7 on a$.50 back up

#7-6
#8-2/3/// #1
#9-6/10///#1/#8
#10-3/9/10/11/8///#1/2/4
#11-10//12////6/5/4/1/2/3/7
This is here so no Red board

[senator L]

So what do you think the better bet is?
The p5 singling Aunt Pearl
or wait until the next race and don't
single any horse in the p4

[freddymo]

no

[goodcopy]

Originally Posted by goodcopy

I'm going to single her, then single the 10 in the oaks for $5.00 pick 5 with bombs in middle 3 races then use 1,2,3,45,6,7 on a$.50 back up

#7-6
#8-2/3/// #1
#9-6/10///#1/#8
#10-3/9/10/11/8///#1/2/4
#11-10//12////6/5/4/1/2/3/7
This is here so no Red board

I am a chump!

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

There was probably a similar post about this same race back in 2019, when Newspaperofrecord was odds-on at 1-5 with a similar resume as Aunt Pearl.

Don't know how many have tried, but in the last 30 years and since the race was switched to the turf, no horse has won it while making its seasonal debut.

This was great information. Thank you

[Kasept]

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yeah thx Have a heart Liz

[Kasept]

And while we're on the topic.. Kalypso too.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

This was great information. Thank you

No problem. Wasn't really hard evidence to take a stand against her especially since the field was fairly light for some reason. Maybe I'm putting too much stock in the Edgewood which is really just a minor race in the grand scheme of things, but there's been a bunch of 3yo filly turf stakes in FL, KY, and CA so far this year and the race is on Derby weekend (to which owners love to show up if they have an excuse).

At any rate, we've all seen time and time again these sorts of unbeatable 2yo filly champs turning into pumpkins at the drop of a hat, especially when they get a break from training.

The good news is, they won't waste time humiliating her with a trip to Royal Ascot; the bad news is, she ran so poorly that she may be toast anyways.