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#1
04-20-2021, 04:26 AM
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FINAL 3/8THS TIMES
  
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. 
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#2
04-20-2021, 05:55 AM
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Thanks!
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#3
04-20-2021, 06:30 AM
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CADDO RIVER is now a Derby GO..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
04-20-2021, 07:28 AM
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Kind of interesting that 4 of the top 6 times are from the Blue Grass.
On that same day, Malathaat finished the 8.5 furlong Ashland in 1:42.94. Her final 1/16th was roughly 6.05. If we estimate that she would have finished the next 1/16th in 6.55 seconds, her time for 9 furlongs would have been 1:49.49 and her final 3/8ths would be under 36.5 seconds. That would put her 4th on that list. I'm a little skeptical of those final Blue Grass fractions and what they mean for Derby Day.
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#5
04-20-2021, 09:56 AM
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FROM TRAVIS STONE
  
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
04-20-2021, 09:57 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
04-20-2021, 10:51 AM
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I wouldn't necessarily categorize Get Her Number as a closer. The horse has good tactical speed that hasn't been displayed in his 2 outings this year.
Javier Castellano kept a strong hold on the horse who was eager during the first half mile of the Rebel (which was off a 5-month layoff) and shuffled him back between horses down the backstretch. Started climbing a bit when taking kickback to the far turn. Got clobbered in the stretch. In the Arkansas Derby he again found himself between horses early, got pinballed a bit heading into the first turn, then ended up ducking out sharply off heels entering the back stretch losing 2-3 lengths in the process. Of course, if he can't handle being in and among traffic in 7-horse fields, none of the above should make one particularly optimistic in a 20-horse melee.
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#8
04-20-2021, 11:51 AM
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While based on strict running lines you can categorize Soup and Sandwich and Midnight Bourbon as "pressers/stalkers", neither horse has displayed the ability to willingly settle early and finish in a two turn race.
Soup and Sandwich's second start was a public workout between races. It was a 3-horse field and he was snatched up early going into the first turn. Made a decisive move on the far turn but never drew away and was all over the place in the stretch. In the Florida Derby with a big field and a loud crowd he broke like a shot and dueled with a Mott horse before pulling himself to the lead (mouth open, jock's feet on the dash board). Swept up entering the stretch by the winner and stayed on the wrong lead. Midnight Bourbon set the pace or dueled in all 3 Louisiana races and basically stayed one-paced throughout. Those races were relatively slow early, too. He's a frontrunner, but he's also a slow frontrunner. A decidedly non-frontrunning CA colt shipped into the LA Derby (Hot Rod Charlie) and ended up setting the pace (with MB lapped right on him). In his 2yo races when outfooted early, he runs even worse, giving way in the stretch (Iroquois, Champagne). Rock Your World hasn't settled early either. He was part of a 3-horse duel in his sprint debut. In the Pasadena Stakes, Commander Khai (who broke his maiden on the lead going 5f) ran off for the first 3/4s. Rock Your World sat in second but was not restrained by the rider, just looked like he couldn't keep up with the run-off. He had to come under a ride to reel him in. Despite his speed, Rock Your World has shown the ability to finish as he's had another gear in the final furlong in both his last two starts, which makes him more attractive than the other 2 if you like him. But if he does not go to the lead, there is no telling how he will react if restrained early or how he will handle kickback for several furlongs for the first time.
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