Who is your top Kentucky Derby contender? Part II.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by richard burch

I like the same two but until the post draw I don't think about it much. If the fav is in the 1 hole I'm not betting on him.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse who has won from post 1, 2, or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the 1998 Derby winner who came up just a nose shy of winning the Triple Crown. Before 1987, 19 of 58 horses that left those gates won, giving the gates a 10.9% win rate. Since 1987, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 1.01% (1-for-99).

These kind of stats kept me off Justify and Big Brown

[moses]

Timeform released an early pace projector and it has Rock Your World able to get the lead and only Caddo River anywhere close to him. It's way early, but I've got to think Cox runs Caddo River or else this race could set up perfectly for Rock Your World.

[Kasept]

[Dahoss]

I’m going to respectfully disagree that Rock Your World is going to be ahead of Caddo River early