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View Poll Results: Who is your top Derby contender
Essential Quality 3 9.09%
Known Agenda 9 27.27%
Hot Rod Charlie 2 6.06%
Rock Your World 7 21.21%
Super Stock 2 6.06%
Concert Tour 2 6.06%
Highly Motivated 3 9.09%
Medina Spirit 2 6.06%
Soup and Sandwich 2 6.06%
Other 1 3.03%
Voters: 33. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 04-17-2021, 12:14 AM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
I'm one of the two that has Essential Quality. The only other one I can see is Rock Your World but I think it's really Essential Quality's race to lose. Having said that, even he didn't impress me last out.
I like the same two but until the post draw I don't think about it much. If the fav is in the 1 hole I'm not betting on him.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse who has won from post 1, 2, or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the 1998 Derby winner who came up just a nose shy of winning the Triple Crown. Before 1987, 19 of 58 horses that left those gates won, giving the gates a 10.9% win rate. Since 1987, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 1.01% (1-for-99).
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  #2  
Old 04-17-2021, 06:30 AM
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jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
I like the same two but until the post draw I don't think about it much. If the fav is in the 1 hole I'm not betting on him.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse who has won from post 1, 2, or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the 1998 Derby winner who came up just a nose shy of winning the Triple Crown. Before 1987, 19 of 58 horses that left those gates won, giving the gates a 10.9% win rate. Since 1987, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 1.01% (1-for-99).
These kind of stats kept me off Justify and Big Brown
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  #3  
Old 04-19-2021, 10:45 AM
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moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
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Timeform released an early pace projector and it has Rock Your World able to get the lead and only Caddo River anywhere close to him. It's way early, but I've got to think Cox runs Caddo River or else this race could set up perfectly for Rock Your World.
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  #4  
Old 04-19-2021, 04:34 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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  #5  
Old 04-19-2021, 06:23 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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I’m going to respectfully disagree that Rock Your World is going to be ahead of Caddo River early
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