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  #1  
Old 09-12-2020, 11:43 AM
ScottJ ScottJ is offline
Narragansett Park
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
He went off at 6/5. I honestly thought he would be more like 3/5 or even 2/5.
The key point here is that by your expectation 6/5 was value.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
This is a good opportunity for a discussion I hope. I get that he won, but long term is that the kind of horse you want to be betting at 6/5?

There might be instances where a 6/5 horse might seem like value based on what he’s running against....but I’m curious what people think. Is 6/5 off a 16 month layoff value?
The key point here is that your expectation 6/5 was not value.

The difference between these two cases is that I would have changed Dahoss's question to the following : Is 6/5 off a 16 month layoff value when you expect his odds to have been X? The layoff is what created an idea of what this horse's odds should have been, perhaps 2-1, but the time off itself is not the reason to say this horse was not value.

Value is your assessment of the horses actual chances of winning versus the odds being quoted. Let me give you two examples.

On September 3rd, there was a three horse off the turf event at Saratoga in the ninth race. Foxtail, the only dirt horse, raced against two lifetime turfers who were asked to stay in the race. Foxtail won by a pole and paid $2.90 to win. My expectation was that this horse should have been 1/5 or less in that spot. $2.90 was incredible value despite being a very low price.

The very next day at Saratoga, Myhartbelongstodady was a 12-1 morning line horse in a relatively short field and wound up going off at 3/2. My expectation was that this horse would have been at least 4/1. Therefore, despite winning, I would never have had this horse since it was extremely bad value despite being the hot-horse on the tote. The $5.00 win price was much higher than Foxtail, but represented terrible value.
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  #2  
Old 09-12-2020, 04:06 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottJ View Post
On September 3rd, there was a three horse off the turf event at Saratoga in the ninth race. Foxtail, the only dirt horse, raced against two lifetime turfers who were asked to stay in the race. Foxtail won by a pole and paid $2.90 to win. My expectation was that this horse should have been 1/5 or less in that spot. $2.90 was incredible value despite being a very low price.
I was not following Saratoga that day. Was this common knowledge?
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  #3  
Old 09-12-2020, 04:36 PM
ScottJ ScottJ is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
I was not following Saratoga that day. Was this common knowledge?
Here was the chart from the September 3rd race.

https://www.equibase.com/premium/cha...20&cy=USA&rn=9

The mismatch was discussed on the broadcast. Not sure what common knowledge would mean beyond that.
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  #4  
Old 09-12-2020, 04:54 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2014
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottJ View Post
Here was the chart from the September 3rd race.

https://www.equibase.com/premium/cha...20&cy=USA&rn=9

The mismatch was discussed on the broadcast. Not sure what common knowledge would mean beyond that.
What I meant was, was it publicly known that the other two runners were “asked to stay in the race”?
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