Hong Kong Plays 2020-21

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kitan

New Hong Kong season starting up later today (or tomorrow, depending on where you are). Most of my recent focus has been on this circuit so I'll try and post some plays throughout the season. Don’t know how much interest there will be, so I’ll keep them all in this one thread.

Race 1:
#10 The Full Bloom: Have been tracking this one for a while now. Five-time winner is very well weighted off a rating of 23 and has been working well for this. 7yo now but in his last turf start showed he still had something when running a nice 3rd in his second run that week. Would have preferred him next week in a 1400m event, but he does have a win at 1650m, ironically at 166-1 when running down my top pick that day…

Race 5:
#1 Ezra: Played him last time but he was spinning wheels a bit on the yielding surface. Had excuses the two starts prior. Won his first start last season off a similar layoff, under identical race conditions, by 3 ¼ lengths.

Race 7:
#1 Baltic Success: Speed machine has had some excuses in his last few. Blew them away by 3.5 lengths the last time he was over the course and distance in Class 3.

Race 9:
#14 Perfect Pair: Really improved since the trainer change in mid-March. Flashed home with a quick closing sectional at Happy Valley, ignore the wet turf try, and won easily towards the end of last season. Should be able to handle the step-up in class.
#5 Regency Bo Bo: Have a look at his last “run”…I don’t recall ever seeing a riderless horse run like that. Dumped the jockey at the start, swooped essentially the entire field on the turn, moved down to the rail on his own accord, and finished a couple of lengths clear of the “official winner”, who himself was 5 lengths clear of the runner-up. Never out of the money in his four previous season debuts, winning two of them.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 10
R5 WP 1
R7 WP 1
R9 WP 5, 14
R9 EX 5, 14/5, 14

Good luck!

Your posts on overseas racing are definitely of interest to me.

[Kitan]

First Happy Valley card of the season tomorrow (early morning North American time). As with the season opener, a few of these names might pop up again here in their second or third starts of the campaign, but let's hope they're right fresh.

Race 1:
#4 Win All: Has done absolutely nothing on the track in his five starts to date, but eligible to improve dropping down into Class 5 with the benefit of an off-season. Has put in a lot of work for this, which has looked good, and finally draws a good post in a very weak race.

Race 2:
#10 Even Keel is another who hasn’t done a thing in HK, but he at least has two earlier wins in the UK. He’s still a 4yo, and sometimes the Northern Hemisphere horses take a while to acclimatize---he’s down 28 rating points from his arrival. In any case, he didn’t look too bad at HV at the end of last season and seems to have benefited from the off-season and trainer change, as he looked good in a recent trial with different headgear. Worth a shot in another race lacking depth.

Race 3:
I’ve been following #4 Momentum Galaxy for a while now as he’s racked up a few excuses. In his four Class 4 runs (in order), he’s been blocked for nearly the whole stretch, missed the start by six lengths, drew wide in a race full of speed, and then was on the dirt. I’m a bit concerned that maybe this is just to stretch his legs before stepping up to 1200m, but he did win over 1100m in Australia, and he should get a perfect trip with there seemingly being little speed drawn inside him.

Also going to mention #11 For Fun's Sake, who also sports a slew of excuses, and although I'm tempted at that price with the 5lbs apprentice, I think the 1000m will be too short for me to play him on top. Might be worth a few place dollars, however.

Race 5:
#10 Authentic Champ: Obviously has had some problems, as shown by the nearly 1.5 year gap between his first and second starts, but he did show some ability on those occasions. His third, and last, start was over 1650m, which was likely too far. Back to 1200m for a trainer who hit at a relatively big (for HK) clip over this course and distance last year, and the price looks right.

Race 8:
#7 Keep You Warm: I played this one in the final Sha Tin race last season where he had some traffic trouble and got clear too late. Irish-bred and hence still a 3yo, so very much open to having improved over the last couple of months. Should get a great trip from post 4.

PLAYS:
R1 WP 4
R2 WP 10
R3 WP 4, P 11
R5 WP 10
R8 WP 7

Good luck!

[geeker2]

Great Job Kitan!

[chuck60]

Kudos Kitan! Awesome plays, sorry I missed them.

For those who want to play Hong Kong, check out the Hong Kong Jockey Club site:

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...g/Entries.aspx

Having started to play HK heavily this year, there is so much information on this site that is available, far beyond the PP charts.

I do appreciate the way that it appears that no nonsense (hearding, changing running lanes, excessive whipping when a horse is out of it, the way they rush a horse to the front just to die) is tolerated as jockeys and trainers are commented on and punished on a regular basis. A much cleaner way of racing and certainly more humane to the horse than the US. Just my 2 cents here.

Good luck in the 8th!

[ADJMK]

Race 3:
I’ve been following #4 Momentum Galaxy for a while now as he’s racked up a few excuses. In his four Class 4 runs (in order), he’s been blocked for nearly the whole stretch, missed the start by six lengths, drew wide in a race full of speed, and then was on the dirt. I’m a bit concerned that maybe this is just to stretch his legs before stepping up to 1200m, but he did win over 1100m in Australia, and he should get a perfect trip with there seemingly being little speed drawn inside him.

$58.90
Ex to 7/5 fav - $197

Hope you cashed a little

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Kitan

PLAYS:
R1 WP 4 1st @ 5-1 ($12.40, $4.50)
R2 WP 10 7th @ 17-1
R3 WP 4, P 11 1st @ 28-1 ($58.90, $11.80); 8th @ 52-1
R5 WP 10 9th @ 11-1
R8 WP 7 8th @ 11-1

Running total (based on minimum denomination)
Bet: $44
Return: $91.80
Total: +$57.00

Can't believe the winner of the first paid so relatively little, but I guess that meant he was live. Also nice to get a longshot winner on a long-time "horse to follow". Needed the 7 to get up for 2nd for the tri, but can't complain about $58.90 to win. The other picks didn't run too poorly, so will probably see some these names back in this thread over the coming weeks, as mentioned.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Great Job Kitan!

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Hope you cashed a little

Originally Posted by chuck60

Kudos Kitan! Awesome plays, sorry I missed them.

Thanks, all!

Originally Posted by chuck60

For those who want to play Hong Kong, check out the Hong Kong Jockey Club site:

https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...g/Entries.aspx

Having started to play HK heavily this year, there is so much information on this site that is available, far beyond the PP charts.

I do appreciate the way that it appears that no nonsense (hearding, changing running lanes, excessive whipping when a horse is out of it, the way they rush a horse to the front just to die) is tolerated as jockeys and trainers are commented on and punished on a regular basis. A much cleaner way of racing and certainly more humane to the horse than the US. Just my 2 cents here.

I agree with all these sentiments...information is much more transparent there and you can find basically anything you are looking for. Once you get past the initial "information overload" it makes it hard to go back and play circuits where you only get the bare bones. Case in point was hearing Bill Mott mention a horse that recently won had worked poorly with blinkers, but I would never have known that otherwise without that interview post Stakes win, which anyways was too late (the day after the runner won). I watched the work on XBTV and wondered why the horse worked so poorly when the next work was spectacular...being able to know if horses had certain equipment on for given works, if they had a lameness/sickness issue which caused a poor run, etc. are all crucial information pieces for bettors.