They'll be Hanging From the Rafters at the Big A Friday

[SniperSB23]

I'd actually think a win here would be pretty impressive. Based on his form last year he'd have no chance at this distance against the horses he will face. If he wins here it means he's moved forward speedwise from last year and would be a horse to reckon with this year as he gets more distance.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd actually think a win here would be pretty impressive. Based on his form last year he'd have no chance at this distance against the horses he will face. If he wins here it means he's moved forward speedwise from last year and would be a horse to reckon with this year as he gets more distance.

I've done some work on the race and the actual contenders are few. There's also some pace. Now, if Jazil was a genuine " Grade 1 horse ", whatever the hell that is, then he would dominate this crew. However, he has hardly proven his superiority, but he still is supposed to be a major factor here. While I still want to go through it some more there are only really two other possible winners on paper, assuming the race doesn't scratch down to nothing, and they are maybe Take the Bluff and definitely Admiral's Arch.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I've done some work on the race and the actual contenders are few. There's also some pace. Now, if Jazil was a genuine " Grade 1 horse ", whatever the hell that is, then he would dominate this crew. However, he has hardly proven his superiority, but he still is supposed to be a major factor here. While I still want to go through it some more there are only really two other possible winners on paper, assuming the race doesn't scratch down to nothing, and they are maybe Take the Bluff and definitely Admiral's Arch.

I must have overestimated Take the Bluff. I thought he was actually a pretty good horse. Will be a good test then to see if he can ever do anything at 8.5 - 9 furlongs. He's less a closer and more a plodder (which I'll probably get smacked for saying). He's less dependant on pace than your typical closer and really just needs a lot of ground so that he can win going at a 24-25 second clip the whole way.

[Danzig]

i don't think it's asking TOO much that jazil turn out better than, oh say...sarava?!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I must have overestimated Take the Bluff. I thought he was actually a pretty good horse.

I overestimated him off his off-the-turf win the day before the Belmont ( which is a good reminder to always take off-the-turf races with a grain of salt ) and his form has been decidely mediocre since. He can win Friday the my guess is Admiral's Arch is the likeliest upsetter if Jazil loses.

Betting against Jazil is one of those " I'm a wiseguy " situations. He certainly isn't a great bet in this situation but he can more certainly win. I think a real wiseguy doesn't underestimate him.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I overestimated him off his off-the-turf win the day before the Belmont ( which is a good reminder to always take off-the-turf races with a grain of salt ) and his form has been decidely mediocre since. He can win Friday the my guess is Admiral's Arch is the likeliest upsetter if Jazil loses.

Betting against Jazil is one of those " I'm a wiseguy " situations. He certainly isn't a great bet in this situation but he can more certainly win. I think a real wiseguy doesn't underestimate him.

My morning line is 8/5. I think he's up against it on the inner the way it's been playing but he does have a win over the strip, McLaughlin is certainly quality off the layoff, and the field is pretty weak.

I think the wiseguys might actually UNDERbet him in this situation.

[Sightseek]

Would some please post how the little guy does...I hate being at work.

[blackthroatedwind]

He trailed early.

M/L 2/5 is unreal. Looks as the pick 3 is the play

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I've done some work on the race and the actual contenders are few. There's also some pace. Now, if Jazil was a genuine " Grade 1 horse ", whatever the hell that is, then he would dominate this crew. However, he has hardly proven his superiority, but he still is supposed to be a major factor here. While I still want to go through it some more there are only really two other possible winners on paper, assuming the race doesn't scratch down to nothing, and they are maybe Take the Bluff and definitely Admiral's Arch.

first rate btw..right on point...5 rattles to you..