5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse? Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either. To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.

It's being suggested/anticipated because of how eager he's been in his works.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's being suggested/anticipated because of how eager he's been in his works.

Thought that might be one of the reasons but he's always been a forward work horse so not sure its particularly solid evidence of a change in tactics.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.

He was pretty close to a fast pace in the Street Sense. Who else is clearly faster than him? I suspect he’ll be easily in the 5-10 range, maybe higher up as I’m counting War of Will out of the early pace now.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

He was pretty close to a fast pace in the Street Sense. Who else is clearly faster than him? I suspect he’ll be easily in the 5-10 range, maybe higher up as I’m counting War of Will out of the early pace now.

Long Range Toddy (twice) and Omaha Beach both outfooted him early in his Oaklawn starts. Vekoma, Spinoff, War of Will, and Maximum Security have all displayed front-running speed. Arguably even Tax and Gray Magician in specific starts have shown more early speed than Improbable.

In the Street Sense, Improbable was 6th early and despite progressing to two turns after that race, showed less speed in subsequent starts. I guess if you want to say that he prefers Churchill Downs to other tracks to the point that he has more early speed I guess that's a possibility, however remote.

Why is War of Will out of the early pace with the rail draw?

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Long Range Toddy (twice) and Omaha Beach both outfooted him early in his Oaklawn starts. Vekoma, Spinoff, War of Will, and Maximum Security have all displayed front-running speed. Arguably even Tax and Gray Magician in specific starts have shown more early speed than Improbable.

In the Street Sense, Improbable was 6th early and despite progressing to two turns after that race, showed less speed in subsequent starts. I guess if you want to say that he prefers Churchill Downs to other tracks to the point that he has more early speed I guess that's a possibility, however remote.

Why is War of Will out of the early pace with the rail draw?

I think there is enough speed to the right of him that he’ll have trouble getting out clean before the rail comes in on him. I also have never really thought he was that fast out of the gate. But maybe I’m wrong.

On Improbable, fair enough. Not sure if he’ll be at the front or not but I like him to be close enough.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

I think there is enough speed to the right of him that he’ll have trouble getting out clean before the rail comes in on him. I also have never really thought he was that fast out of the gate. But maybe I’m wrong.

He was fairly sharp from the gate in all 3 FG starts although he stumbled slightly in the Lecomte and lost his hind end after a handful of strides in the Louisiana Derby.

At any rate, Mark Casse said he plans to send him straight to the lead in the post-draw quotes. However it should be noted that Tax's trainer (post 2) plans on shifting over to the rail whether War of Will breaks or not.

On Improbable, fair enough. Not sure if he’ll be at the front or not but I like him to be close enough.

I would prefer if Improbable showed more early foot, if for no other reason than his riders wouldn't be compelled to make the silly middle moves he's made in his last two.

However, at this stage, I think it's a moot point. Considering his gate antics last out, the bad rides in both his starts this year, and the pummeling he took in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, my guess is that Improbable has busted a gut and will be a non-factor in the Derby.

Hopefully I'm wrong--because he's talented--but if he does tank hopefully we can at least look forward to a strong 4yo campaign a la Collected in 2017.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He was fairly sharp from the gate in all 3 FG starts although he stumbled slightly in the Lecomte and lost his hind end after a handful of strides in the Louisiana Derby.

At any rate, Mark Casse said he plans to send him straight to the lead in the post-draw quotes. However it should be noted that Tax's trainer (post 2) plans on shifting over to the rail whether War of Will breaks or not.


I would prefer if Improbable showed more early foot, if for no other reason than his riders wouldn't be compelled to make the silly middle moves he's made in his last two.

However, at this stage, I think it's a moot point. Considering his gate antics last out, the bad rides in both his starts this year, and the pummeling he took in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, my guess is that Improbable has busted a gut and will be a non-factor in the Derby.

Hopefully I'm wrong--because he's talented--but if he does tank hopefully we can at least look forward to a strong 4yo campaign a la Collected in 2017.

Interesting take on Improbable. I’m pretty high on him heading into the Derby. If anything, it seems to me like he’s got quite a bit of room to improve off of his last two starts. But I’ve liked his overal talent level for a long time so I may be letting that skew my analysis. Same goes for Vekoma. I’ve liked him since the Nashua...so I keep looking at him and thinking he’s got a chance to wire the field...though I know most will probably think I’m crazy for thinking that.