4/8 ATR at SA with Hammer: Baffert, Orseno, Weaver, Sawyer, Johnny D

[moses]

Originally Posted by cal828

He will be on my tickets too and I will be surprised if he is not the race favorite, but there will also be a lot of support for Roadster as reflected in the Futures. That said, I don't see a lot of challengers for the role of pacesetter except for Omaha Beach and that one seems faster. At least faster early, but who knows, hard to evaluate on just a handful of races.
Maybe Max is not as one dimensional as his last two races seem to indicate.

If Improbable wins the Arkansas Derby, he’ll be the favorite. If you look at the final odds for Pool 4, Improbable was the 5th choice at 8-1, below Roadster, Game Winner, Maximum Security, and Tacitus. He was 6-1 in Pool 3 and took the most money of any individual horse. 10-1 in Pool 2 and 3rd most money taken.

He doesn’t even have enough points to make the Derby yet. So if he wins on Saturday, a lot of money will gravitate toward him on May 4.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by moses

If Improbable wins the Arkansas Derby, he’ll be the favorite. If you look at the final odds for Pool 4, Improbable was the 5th choice at 8-1, below Roadster, Game Winner, Maximum Security, and Tacitus. He was 6-1 in Pool 3 and took the most money of any individual horse. 10-1 in Pool 2 and 3rd most money taken.

He doesn’t even have enough points to make the Derby yet. So if he wins on Saturday, a lot of money will gravitate toward him on May 4.

Fine by me, if it turns out that way, but too many ifs there. I am thinking Omaha Beach for the Arkansas Derby. Pacesetters often relish a wet track and I think he won at Santa Anita on one. Should make for wagering chaos should all 3 Bafferts make it into the KD and I imagine they will.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cal828

Fine by me, if it turns out that way, but too many ifs there. I am thinking Omaha Beach for the Arkansas Derby. Pacesetters often relish a wet track and I think he won at Santa Anita on one. Should make for wagering chaos should all 3 Bafferts make it into the KD and I imagine they will.

Also fine with me. I have no clue why anyone would bet a horse that isn’t even in the derby yet at 8-1 in Pool 4.

$20 wins you $180. If you really like him, why not just bet him to win the Arkansas Derby? If he’s 2-1 in Arkansas and wins, that’s $60. And if he’s 3-1 in Kentucky and you roll those winnings into a bet, you’ll get back $240. Better use of $20, in my opinion. Of course he could lose the Arkansas Derby and win the Kentucky Derby but that seems...improbable.

Anyway...for the Arkansas Derby I was originally backing Omaha Beach but I think I may be moving elsewhere. I’ll take a final look on Thursday or Friday and see if that weather forecast sticks.