Hypo Race - Baffert 3yos

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

CD - 10f - Track fast
All horses healthy and in good form, with regular jocks up, etc.

How are you betting this one?

1) American Pharoah
2) Arrogate
3) Bayern
4) Congaree
5) Justify
6) Lookin At Lucky
7) Point Given
8) Real Quiet
9) Silverbulletday
10) Silver Charm
11) War Emblem

The key to this race is who Mike Smith is going to ride and who Gary Stevens is going to ride. I'll presume Victor Espinoza will take American Pharoah over Congaree and War Emblem. Stevens I think would take Point Given over Silver Charm to try and make up for his epic botch in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. Smith will probably stay with Justify, leaving Arrogate for Bejarano.

That aside, you are looking at a 3-horse speed duel as Justify, Bayern, and War Emblem were either unproven or useless in a stalking position. They won't be there at the end, though I could see Justify fighting on through the stretch.

CONGAREE ran one of the stronger races of the bunch going 10f at Churchill (Point Given 0-for-2 at Churchill) and he is the upset special here. He is proven at attending a breakneck pace and has also shown he can settle just off a speed duel without getting fried. There is no one-run closer to run him down (Excellent Meeting was left off the list) if he gets the jump on the field. However, SILVER CHARM has similar qualities and a lot more tenacity than Congaree ever showed so he is the one to beat. Congaree had a better turn of foot and so Silver Charm will have to engage early not to lose critical ground at the top of the stretch.

AMERICAN PHAROAH showed he could settle well and attend the pace in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, but he was all-out to score and he simply won't have enough for more than a minor award.

ARROGATE has all the appropriate qualities (running style, natural speed, stamina) for the distance, but is suspect in a quality field. He ran down California Chrome and beat Gun Runner a couple of times when that one was in the midst of 4 or 5 race losing streak, so he has a bit to prove class-wise. Exotics use only.

BAYERN is a pace factor only. JUSTIFY will probably shrug off Bayern and War Emblem but will face multiple challenges by the 1/4 pole and will cave by mid-stretch.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY's form is darkened by bad trips, off-tracks, and synthetic surfaces. He also retired at 3 while lightly raced, so it's hard to presume much progression. He also was 0-for-2 at 10 furlongs. Middle move but will lack any kind of serious rally.

POINT GIVEN was a difficult horse to ride. Blessed with natural speed, he lost both the Champagne and the Derby when too close to hot paces. However, when taken well off the pace, he was terrible, coming up short in the BC Juvenile (when 10-wide) and lugging in badly in both the Preakness and Haskell while under heavy pressure to rally. His other races were public workouts facing sprinters (Crafty C.T., I Love Silver) or dedicated punching bags (AP Valentine, Dollar Bill). This hypothetical race will play out similar to the 2001 Kentucky Derby, he'll either wilt from the pace or have too much to do at the top of the stretch to make a dent versus these.

REAL QUIET is a solid closer but has the human anchor in Kent Desormeaux. Always comes with a big run, but when ill-timed (read: moves too early), the horse tends to hang or wilt. Even in the 1998 Kentucky Derby he was getting late in deep stretch, swapping back to his left lead and just holding off Victory Gallop. Threatens in mid-stretch but ultimately outfinished.

SILVERBULLETDAY was fed a diet of slow-paced/weak fielded Grade 3 and Grade 2s to pad her resume, but Excellent Meeting was a much better fit at this distance, especially with a fast pace a near certainty. Chasing these, she'll be done after 6 furlongs. WAR EMBLEM is a pace factor only.

Exacta box CONGAREE and SILVER CHARM. Use ARROGATE, REAL QUIET and AMERICAN PHAROAH in the trifecta.

INDIAN CHARLIE would have been a threat on the win end if he was entered...

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The key to this race is who Mike Smith is going to ride and who Gary Stevens is going to ride. I'll presume Victor Espinoza will take American Pharoah over Congaree and War Emblem. Stevens I think would take Point Given over Silver Charm to try and make up for his epic botch in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. Smith will probably stay with Justify, leaving Arrogate for Bejarano.

That aside, you are looking at a 3-horse speed duel as Justify, Bayern, and War Emblem were either unproven or useless in a stalking position. They won't be there at the end, though I could see Justify fighting on through the stretch.

CONGAREE ran one of the stronger races of the bunch going 10f at Churchill (Point Given 0-for-2 at Churchill) and he is the upset special here. He is proven at attending a breakneck pace and has also shown he can settle just off a speed duel without getting fried. There is no one-run closer to run him down (Excellent Meeting was left off the list) if he gets the jump on the field. However, SILVER CHARM has similar qualities and a lot more tenacity than Congaree ever showed so he is the one to beat. Congaree had a better turn of foot and so Silver Charm will have to engage early not to lose critical ground at the top of the stretch.

AMERICAN PHAROAH showed he could settle well and attend the pace in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, but he was all-out to score and he simply won't have enough for more than a minor award.

ARROGATE has all the appropriate qualities (running style, natural speed, stamina) for the distance, but is suspect in a quality field. He ran down California Chrome and beat Gun Runner a couple of times when that one was in the midst of 4 or 5 race losing streak, so he has a bit to prove class-wise. Exotics use only.

BAYERN is a pace factor only. JUSTIFY will probably shrug off Bayern and War Emblem but will face multiple challenges by the 1/4 pole and will cave by mid-stretch.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY's form is darkened by bad trips, off-tracks, and synthetic surfaces. He also retired at 3 while lightly raced, so it's hard to presume much progression. He also was 0-for-2 at 10 furlongs. Middle move but will lack any kind of serious rally.

POINT GIVEN was a difficult horse to ride. Blessed with natural speed, he lost both the Champagne and the Derby when too close to hot paces. However, when taken well off the pace, he was terrible, coming up short in the BC Juvenile (when 10-wide) and lugging in badly in both the Preakness and Haskell while under heavy pressure to rally. His other races were public workouts facing sprinters (Crafty C.T., I Love Silver) or dedicated punching bags (AP Valentine, Dollar Bill). This hypothetical race will play out similar to the 2001 Kentucky Derby, he'll either wilt from the pace or have too much to do at the top of the stretch to make a dent versus these.

REAL QUIET is a solid closer but has the human anchor in Kent Desormeaux. Always comes with a big run, but when ill-timed (read: moves too early), the horse tends to hang or wilt. Even in the 1998 Kentucky Derby he was getting late in deep stretch, swapping back to his left lead and just holding off Victory Gallop. Threatens in mid-stretch but ultimately outfinished.

SILVERBULLETDAY was fed a diet of slow-paced/weak fielded Grade 3 and Grade 2s to pad her resume, but Excellent Meeting was a much better fit at this distance, especially with a fast pace a near certainty. Chasing these, she'll be done after 6 furlongs. WAR EMBLEM is a pace factor only.

Exacta box CONGAREE and SILVER CHARM. Use ARROGATE, REAL QUIET and AMERICAN PHAROAH in the trifecta.

INDIAN CHARLIE would have been a threat on the win end if he was entered...

Good stuff.
A bit off topic but with Baffert, what did you think of Roadster?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Good stuff.
A bit off topic but with Baffert, what did you think of Roadster?

Looks like its going to be a battle of nature versus nurture with him.

He's by probably one the better sources of stamina right now (next to Tapit and Curlin) in Quality Road. He's also a half brother to Ascend, who is a Grade 1 winner at 10f (on the grass) and there is plenty of more stamina further along (his 3rd dam won at 10 furlongs and his kin includes Family Tree and recent Queen's Plate runner-up Telekenesis).

The horse himself seemed to switch off down the backstretch after being hustled along from the inside post to get a forward position, but rallied sharply into the far turn and won comfortably from there. Looks like he wants to settle and make one run.

The problem will be Baffert and Mike Smith. Baffert will want him up close and Smith will ride him like he's his "next big thing" which means you can expect stupid early moves and breakneck paces.

None of that nuture stuff will do him any favors, particularly with soundness concerns. The sire line is not noted for durability.

[taxicab]

If you make a list of Baffert runners 11-20 that would be a talented bunch to say the least.
Horse on the list with most Graded Stakes wins was also one of the toughest horses in history to pass in the lane...….Silver Charm.
Jockey who rode the most American Classic winners for Baffert: Victor Espinoza with 5.
Jockey who rode the most Breeders Cup winners for Baffert: Garret Gomez/Martin Garcia.....4.
Strange,but super impressive Baffert stat: Baffert has had 7 American Classic winners account for 15 victories...…...the only Colt who wasn't a dual classic winner was Lookin At Lucky.