i have a question

[ontheoutside]

you stay with your opinion ill stay with mine I know what I saw

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

you stay with your opinion ill stay with mine I know what I saw

What did you see? What you're saying makes no sense. His swinging out is not what cost him. What cost him was the incident he had with the other horse 1/16th of a mile later in the race. You are right that the incident would not have happened if he hadn't swung out earlier. But how is the jockey going to know that 1/16th of a mile later in the race that his horse is going to lug in and that another horse is going to swing out into his path? That has nothing to do with a decision that was made 1/16th of a mile earlier. In 99% of cases, a jockey would be less likely to have a near collision by going wide than by trying to go through on the rail or split horses. So in the one case out of 100 where the wide move ends up leading to a near collision (a 1/16th of a mile later), you say it was a bad move.

I'll give you an analogy. If you are playing blackjack and you have 16 and the dealer has a 5 showing, you should stand. Even if the next card turns out to be a 5, you still made the right move. You have to play the percentages. It's not going to work every time. That is irrelevant. You can't complain that you should have hit since the next card turned out to be a 5 and you would have had 21. In the long run, you will do 100x better by standing when you have 16 and the dealer is showing a 5.

[Alabama Stakes]

The longer you stay inside , the bigger chance you’ll get stuck there. The other jocks will try to keep you pinned as long as they can. I think he knew, or thought he had plenty of hoss there and wen5 for clear sailing while he had the chance. The bigger problem with the ride was the foolish right hand stick. If you’re gonna come around like that, angle out further and give yourself some room under left hand urging and get your momentum up with room to lug in a little cause you’re moving so fast. He had to stop riding twice losing all chance.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

The longer you stay inside , the bigger chance you’ll get stuck there. The other jocks will try to keep you pinned as long as they can. I think he knew, or thought he had plenty of hoss there and wen5 for clear sailing while he had the chance. The bigger problem with the ride was the foolish right hand stick. If you’re gonna come around like that, angle out further and give yourself some room under left hand urging and get your momentum up with room to lug in a little cause you’re moving so fast. He had to stop riding twice losing all chance.

I agree with everything you said!