TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[MichiganMattA]

Justify is the clear favorite wherever he goes...

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

[RHT2004]

Solomimi feels like thr forgotten horse. I hope he runs huge this weekend. I said early on he could eventually turn the tables on Bolt as distances increased. I like him, and hope he runs well.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

My morning line with close to the 15.43% SA takeout would be:

Bolt 9-5
McK 9-5
Just 9-5
each other horse 50-1

If you're asking about a morning line with zero takeout, I'd make it:

Bolt 2.2-1
McK 2.2-1
Just 2.2-1
each other horse 80-1

(Those "2.2-1"s would obviously look like 2-1 if restricted to the usual ML constraints.)

Justify may have more talent, but Bolt and McKinzie have more seasoning. I can't separate them in the chance to win the next outing, if by some oddity all three were in the same race.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

The ML is supposed to be how the line maker thinks the public will bet a race..........so here's how I think the public would bet the SA Derby if all three were in:
Bolt.............8-5
McKinzie......2-1
Justify.........5-2

BTW: I would take the 5-2 on Justify for the win wager.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by taxicab

The ML is supposed to be how the line maker thinks the public will bet a race..........so here's how I think the public would bet the SA Derby if all three were in:
Bolt.............8-5
McKinzie......2-1
Justify.........5-2

BTW: I would take the 5-2 on Justify for the win wager.

There’s a better chance of you being Justify’s jockey than there is that he’d be the third choice in that race.

[Kasept]

Some Sunland Derby updates: Rampellini-Transgress to pass, per Lukas; Hersh-Mine That Bird winner Reride to UAE Derby.

New York Central, Runaway Ghost, All Out Blitz, Dark Vader head probables.. Baffert certainly sending one..

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There’s a better chance of you being Justify’s jockey than there is that he’d be the third choice in that race.

Perhaps(not the jockey part)....
But remember,the morning line maker has to anticipate how the public will bet the race.
The first factor to consider is the betting publics love of betting the class of the race............especially Gr.1 horses vs. non graded types.
History shows they pound the class runners.
Secondly,lets try this:
Throw out the three horses names for just a second.
Horse "A" is a double Grade 1 winner.............the 2yo Champion who just ran giant in a race he badly needed.
Horse "B" is nearly undefeated,already a Grade 1 winner.........who just refused to let the Eclipse Award winning Champion by him in the stretch.
Horse "C" has looked lights out both times,just galloping...........but those wins came in a Maiden race & AlwOC(in the mud).
Also factor in that horses "A"/"B" are the top two rated 3yo's out there.
So all things considered, is it really that big a reach to say horse "C" would be a well respected third choice lining up next to horses "A" & "B" ?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by taxicab

So all things considered, is it really that big a reach to say horse "C" would be a well respected third choice lining up next to horses "A" & "B" ?

Wasn't the Derby Future Wager this past weekend a referendum on the topic?

This was how the betting closed among the three:

Justify 6.20-1
Bolt 7.10-1
McKenzie 9.40-1

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Wasn't the Derby Future Wager this past weekend a referendum on the topic?

This was how the betting closed among the three:

Justify 6.20-1
Bolt 7.10-1
McKenzie 9.40-1

This is a good point.
I was aware of the Derby finals for pool two when I posted.
I'm basing my opinion on how I've seen the public bet over the years in a certain situation.
And yes, I think it's a fair point to say that if the public likes Justify in the Derby future 2.........they would make him the chalk @ SA.
But I also think the Derby futures speculators are assuming Justify cruises in his final Derby prep.........he may very well,but with his two race resume I just don't think he'd do it as the chalk if Bolt/McKinzie were in the same race.
I'll add on here....
I'm pretty sure Justify isn't going to FLA.........but I wonder if he'd be favored against that bunch over the Gulfstream oval ?
More: I can see Justify rolling in his final Derby prep...........but I believe in the Derby his lack of seasoning will catch up with him.
And I'll be curious how Mr. White(I think he still makes the ML @ SA)sorts out his line.....

[Kasept]

Though not involved in the ownership directly, Justify breeder John Gunther tweeting that Arkansas Derby is the target..