Santa Anita Opening Day

[Gander]

I think Arson Squad will have to run the race of his life to win. These horses he will have to beat today are better than Point Determined, Cause to Believe and AP Warrior. His last race was a gem from a number standpoint but he didnt beat all that much and who knows if the track was playing honest that day.

Latent Heat, Midnight Lute, Da Stoops and Brother Derek all look consistently faster than Arson Squad.

Thing that bothers me most is Arson Squad will be the biggest underlay in this field based on his great record at Santa Anita and off his last win.

Sure he can win, but this race came up way too tough for me to want a horse who shows just 1 race in his life that is fast enough to win this.

I dont doubt he will get a great trip just off the speed, but I doubt that will be enough. No thanks.

I'd probably use Latent Heat and Sailors Sunset in here but nothing totalling too much money. Sailors Sunset to me is the obvious value play. He is in career form and once again finds himself in a spot where he should be able to dictate the pace. Catch him to cash.

More guys than Headley saved their big guns or horses sitting on conditions for this meet.
I'd say one angle to give strong consideration to are first timers or layoff horses with a strong, consistent worktab. By this I mean a horse who shows a long string of uninterrupted workouts who looks as if he may have been ready a while ago.
Those horses have probably been pointed for this meet and will be fit with fresh legs. In addition most trainers will do MUCH better with hores who have been aimed for a specific spot or plan, rather than those who are just being run because its the only logical to place to run in the condition book.
It ought to be a great meet, and I think it will once again be the premier place to bet this winter on a day in day out basis.
Good luck!!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

and as allways look for the ones that didnt like the carpet..or were non contenders as far as video goes..looks good on paper..runs bad at holly..diff horse at sa..

[Sightseek]

Race 7 - To Sender, Porto Santo & Get Funky

Race 8 - Midnight Lute, Brother Derek, Arson Squad

Race 9 - Darkness Night

Originally Posted by oracle80

More guys than Headley saved their big guns or horses sitting on conditions for this meet.
I'd say one angle to give strong consideration to are first timers or layoff horses with a strong, consistent worktab. By this I mean a horse who shows a long string of uninterrupted workouts who looks as if he may have been ready a while ago.
Those horses have probably been pointed for this meet and will be fit with fresh legs. In addition most trainers will do MUCH better with hores who have been aimed for a specific spot or plan, rather than those who are just being run because its the only logical to place to run in the condition book.
It ought to be a great meet, and I think it will once again be the premier place to bet this winter on a day in day out basis.
Good luck!!

Hey Oracle, I like your thought on this, but it also could be the opposite. What I mean is that a horse can be "too fresh." If a horse is too fresh then the horse could be ranked and get a little excited. But this is why handicapping is the greatest thing in the world.

[Gander]

Good luck with Sailors Sunset. In my opinion that horse wants no business of 7 furlongs.

If this horse can make an easy enough lead and relax somewhere along the way, he can be very dangerous if the track is playing speed friendly which it often does, especially on opening day. If I recall, a major knock on Proud Tower Too last year was he was more of a 6F horse and there seemed to be way too much speed for him to wire the field. We all know how that ended up!

That said, I think this field is better than last year's and he is going to break perfect to win. I like the fact that speed types make their own racing luck. They arent dependent on other horses trips to win.

Originally Posted by Gander

Good luck with Sailors Sunset. In my opinion that horse wants no business of 7 furlongs.

If this horse can make an easy enough lead and relax somewhere along the way, he can be very dangerous if the track is playing speed friendly which it often does, especially on opening day. If I recall, a major knock on Proud Tower Too last year was he was more of a 6F horse and there seemed to be way too much speed for him to wire the field. We all know how that ended up!

That said, I think this field is better than last year's and he is going to break perfect to win. I like the fact that speed types make their own racing luck. They arent dependent on other horses trips to win.

I agree with this, however there is no way a horse gets an easy lead in this race.

[SniperSB23]

I like Porto Santo a lot in the Sir Beaufort. I played him over Kip Deville, Get Funky, Crested, and Zann. In Summation is a total play against.

In the Cal BC Stakes I really like Super Image on the cutback in distance. Hoping enough are scared off by his last to get higher than 4-1 on him. Tough race though with a few of the top contenders having only run on the cushion track. It seems too short for Pirates Deputy, I expect him to not crack the super.

[Gander]

I like Crested a lot today. He hung around pretty good last time against Showing Up and I think he has another forward move in him (although he may not even need it to win this). Never raced on the Santa Anita turf but may be ideally situated saving all the ground. Look for him to make a huge move in the stretch, probably up the inside.

Originally Posted by Gander

I think Arson Squad will have to run the race of his life to win. These horses he will have to beat today are better than Point Determined, Cause to Believe and AP Warrior. His last race was a gem from a number standpoint but he didnt beat all that much and who knows if the track was playing honest that day.

Latent Heat, Midnight Lute, Da Stoops and Brother Derek all look consistently faster than Arson Squad.

Thing that bothers me most is Arson Squad will be the biggest underlay in this field based on his great record at Santa Anita and off his last win.

Sure he can win, but this race came up way too tough for me to want a horse who shows just 1 race in his life that is fast enough to win this.

I dont doubt he will get a great trip just off the speed, but I doubt that will be enough. No thanks.

I'd probably use Latent Heat and Sailors Sunset in here but nothing totalling too much money. Sailors Sunset to me is the obvious value play. He is in career form and once again finds himself in a spot where he should be able to dictate the pace. Catch him to cash.

Good luck with Sailors Sunset. In my opinion that horse wants no business of 7 furlongs.