Weekend Stakes Beyers

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Interesting comments about the figure from DRF, basically that they made it based on what they though was reasonable for the horses in that race and it was not a figure broken out based on a surface change.

What I do not agree with is why the Excelsior wasn't broken out in the same fashion. Was it just because they were 4 year old's? I really don't question Beyers expertise or opinion its the methodology I don't get. The Excelsior was a rock solid figure but the Forerunner isn't? In the case of the Excelsior it was very hard to stomach Send it In running an Arrogate type figure. Is it more or less plausible that a improving colt ran a 107/8 then Send it In and Tu Bruti running 114's.. It's just a discussion it isnt a knock.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by freddymo

What I do not agree with is why the Excelsior wasn't broken out in the same fashion. Was it just because they were 4 year old's? I really don't question Beyers expertise or opinion its the methodology I don't get. The Excelsior was a rock solid figure but the Forerunner isn't? In the case of the Excelsior it was very hard to stomach Send it In running an Arrogate type figure. Is it more or less plausible that a improving colt ran a 107/8 then Send it In and Tu Bruti running 114's.. It's just a discussion it isnt a knock.

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

[SniperSB23]

Looking at the races before and after the Excelsior for the 3rd and 5th place finishers it is tough to make the argument that the Excelsior figure is any more than a point or two too high.

Doyouknowsomething - 86/95/99/98/93
Discreet Lover - 92/92/93/85/85

I don't have the subsequent figures for Hereditary or Admiral Blue since I can't get Formulator on this device but Hereditary came in with 95/89/84 and ran a 94 or 95 while Admiral Blue came in with 94/96 and ran about a 91. Lot of races you can nitpick at the Beyer figures but the Excelsior does not seem like a good example.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

After listening to Beyer on Steve's show, the time of the race mattered little (at least that is how I understood him). "I thought pre race the winner would run a 95" once you have a predisposition to a # this fig was always going to revolve(+/-) around that notion. Basically he used a fig that was a few lengths greater then his preconceived idea based and assigned a number that worked for him. Greg I think you are right its easy to go back and re look at it.

I applaud him coming on air and explaining the thought process

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by freddymo

After listening to Beyer on Steve's show, the time of the race mattered little (at least that is how I understood him). "I thought pre race the winner would run a 95" once you have a predisposition to a # this fig was always going to revolve(+/-) around that notion. Basically he used a fig that was a few lengths greater then his preconceived idea based and assigned a number that worked for him. Greg I think you are right its easy to go back and re look at it.

I applaud him coming on air and explaining the thought process

This has always been my problem with the figures. I've always thought that they should tell the story of what happened that day and that previous races should have no bearing on that. I get the whole thing about having a expectation of what you should see and if the figure comes out far different than the norm, looking for reasons why. I've just always felt that those reasons should be confined to things that factored that day only. I've always hated using future races to go back and adjust past ones. So many things go into each performance. Today, you might not be cranked up for your best, it's a big field, it's just basically a prep race, etc. Next time is the big race, small field, different tactics used, track watered different, hot day, big crowd, etc. So using prior or subsequent races to judge today has always felt wrong to me. I'm obviously not on Beyer's level so I'm not questioning him. Just saying this is the issue I've always had. I'd like to see each story speak for itself and let the handicappers delve into why that figure came out like it did and determine if they feel like a particular high or low figure is an aberration or maybe a sign of what's to come.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

This has always been my problem with the figures. I've always thought that they should tell the story of what happened that day and that previous races should have no bearing on that. I get the whole thing about having a expectation of what you should see and if the figure comes out far different than the norm, looking for reasons why. I've just always felt that those reasons should be confined to things that factored that day only. I've always hated using future races to go back and adjust past ones. So many things go into each performance. Today, you might not be cranked up for your best, it's a big field, it's just basically a prep race, etc. Next time is the big race, small field, different tactics used, track watered different, hot day, big crowd, etc. So using prior or subsequent races to judge today has always felt wrong to me. I'm obviously not on Beyer's level so I'm not questioning him. Just saying this is the issue I've always had. I'd like to see each story speak for itself and let the handicappers delve into why that figure came out like it did and determine if they feel like a particular high or low figure is an aberration or maybe a sign of what's to come.

Did you listen to Beyer on Byk's show today?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

This is, yet another, meaningless post from you, Greg.

You're both smart enough and knowledgeable enough to know that what Beyer did makes sense.

[knickslions2]

Andy Beyer gave a great explanation of his decision on Steves show. Anybody with concerns on the figures should listen.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is, yet another, meaningless post from you, Greg.

You're both smart enough and knowledgeable enough to know that what Beyer did makes sense.

Where did I disagree with it? I can see both sides.

You are making this personal, why I do not know?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Where did I disagree with it? I can see both sides.

You are making this personal, why I do not know?

I'm sorry. I misunderstood. Your new misanthropic persona has thrown me for a loop.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry. I misunderstood. Your new misanthropic persona has thrown me for a loop.

You know better than most I do not have the comprehension for words like that.

I did google it, nice touch!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

If you believe Paradise Woods ran a faster race then the colt, you believe one of 2 things: the track changed or the time of one if not both of the races are wrong. Perhaps the fig with Paradise Woods is too high? Perhaps a 4 horse loose on the lead race is not a "she is what she is" race, and is misleading? I can go with the colt didn't run a 113 and ran 100.. I cant go with Paradise Woods 1.44.34 is faster then 1.43.54. Perhaps the race to cut loose was the Zenyatta? The problem with cutting the Zenyatta loose is its not unusual for loose speed horses to run their best figs when they have dynamics their own way, which she did. I dont know just an interesting conversation

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If you believe Paradise Woods ran a faster race then the colt, you believe one of 2 things: the track changed or the time of one if not both of the races are wrong. Perhaps the fig with Paradise Woods is too high? Perhaps a 4 horse loose on the lead race is not a "she is what she is" race, and is misleading? I can go with the colt didn't run a 113 and ran 100.. I cant go with Paradise Woods 1.44.34 is faster then 1.43.54. Perhaps the race to cut loose was the Zenyatta? The problem with cutting the Zenyatta loose is its not unusual for loose speed horses to run their best figs when they have dynamics their own way, which she did. I dont know just an interesting conversation

Its hard to say all the way around.

If you watch all four of those dirt stake races there was one horse who was really finishing and did not look like they were sucking gas at the end and that was the 2yo colt. I thought even Paradise Woods loose on the lead looked like she was getting tired a bit, and I am totally against her basically the next several months.

Elate and Bolt D Oro looked like the best prep winners to me.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Its hard to say all the way around.

If you watch all four of those dirt stake races there was one horse who was really finishing and did not look like they were sucking gas at the end and that was the 2yo colt. I thought even Paradise Woods loose on the lead looked like she was getting tired a bit, and I am totally against her basically the next several months.

Elate and Bolt D Oro looked like the best prep winners to me.

I have no faith in Paradise Woods she is a complete fraud, until I see her race well with a small stick in her path I will pass not even remotely considering her as anything but a takeout cure. Elate beat bums, relatively speaking, I learned she is in form, I dont worry about her trainer keeping her very good yet is she really that fast? I dont know will see, she certainly is a contender.

The colt ran a 106+k beating him

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I have no faith in Paradise Woods she is a complete fraud, until I see her race well with a small stick in her path I will pass not even remotely considering her as anything but a takeout cure. Elate beat bums, relatively speaking, I learned she is in form, I dont worry about her trainer keeping her very good yet is she really that fast? I dont know will see, she certainly is a contender.

The colt ran a 106+k beating him

yea, Elate may have a case of the slows. I have little faith in many of these older fillies and I can see something crazy happening.

Is there any other pace in that race but Paradise Woods? I dont think she is that good but maybe loose on the lead she may surprise.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

Bingo