Weekend Stakes Beyers

[10 pnt move up]

Paradise Woods got a smaller figure than Bolt D Oro.......that would mean the track changed considerably.

I will go with the Timeform figure which I know will be better than Paradise Woods.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Paradise Woods got a smaller figure than Bolt D Oro.......that would mean the track changed considerably.

I will go with the Timeform figure which I know will be better than Paradise Woods.

Using a 4 horse race, with loose speed going gate to wire as a MEANINGFUL hallmark for the Forerunner is not prudent. Who cares what fig Paradise Woods received it means so little IMO.

Seems like there is a strong tendency to place as much value on the 3rd place finisher and their assumed ability as there is in evaluating raw time

[10 pnt move up]

Interesting comments about the figure from DRF, basically that they made it based on what they though was reasonable for the horses in that race and it was not a figure broken out based on a surface change.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Interesting comments about the figure from DRF, basically that they made it based on what they though was reasonable for the horses in that race and it was not a figure broken out based on a surface change.

When science meets art and art wins

[Kasept]

SA John Henry Turf S (G2): Itsinthepost-FR -- (American Post-GB) J. Mullins/T. Baze

BEL Temperence Hill S: Madefromlucky 90 (Lookin At Lucky) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
BEL Miss Grillo S (G3): Significant Form 78 (Creative Cause) C. Brown/I. Ortiz

WO Grey S (G3): Archaggelos 83 (Temple City) M. Dickinson/R. Hernandez

HST Ascot Graduation S: Wise Market -- (Mass Market) P. Hall/A. Perez

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Interesting comments about the figure from DRF, basically that they made it based on what they though was reasonable for the horses in that race and it was not a figure broken out based on a surface change.

What I do not agree with is why the Excelsior wasn't broken out in the same fashion. Was it just because they were 4 year old's? I really don't question Beyers expertise or opinion its the methodology I don't get. The Excelsior was a rock solid figure but the Forerunner isn't? In the case of the Excelsior it was very hard to stomach Send it In running an Arrogate type figure. Is it more or less plausible that a improving colt ran a 107/8 then Send it In and Tu Bruti running 114's.. It's just a discussion it isnt a knock.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by freddymo

What I do not agree with is why the Excelsior wasn't broken out in the same fashion. Was it just because they were 4 year old's? I really don't question Beyers expertise or opinion its the methodology I don't get. The Excelsior was a rock solid figure but the Forerunner isn't? In the case of the Excelsior it was very hard to stomach Send it In running an Arrogate type figure. Is it more or less plausible that a improving colt ran a 107/8 then Send it In and Tu Bruti running 114's.. It's just a discussion it isnt a knock.

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

[SniperSB23]

Looking at the races before and after the Excelsior for the 3rd and 5th place finishers it is tough to make the argument that the Excelsior figure is any more than a point or two too high.

Doyouknowsomething - 86/95/99/98/93
Discreet Lover - 92/92/93/85/85

I don't have the subsequent figures for Hereditary or Admiral Blue since I can't get Formulator on this device but Hereditary came in with 95/89/84 and ran a 94 or 95 while Admiral Blue came in with 94/96 and ran about a 91. Lot of races you can nitpick at the Beyer figures but the Excelsior does not seem like a good example.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

After listening to Beyer on Steve's show, the time of the race mattered little (at least that is how I understood him). "I thought pre race the winner would run a 95" once you have a predisposition to a # this fig was always going to revolve(+/-) around that notion. Basically he used a fig that was a few lengths greater then his preconceived idea based and assigned a number that worked for him. Greg I think you are right its easy to go back and re look at it.

I applaud him coming on air and explaining the thought process

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

This is, yet another, meaningless post from you, Greg.

You're both smart enough and knowledgeable enough to know that what Beyer did makes sense.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

two year olds often have changing baselines of their previous figures.

This is the safe play though, they can always adjust it and its a lot easier to adjust up than down.

If you believe Paradise Woods ran a faster race then the colt, you believe one of 2 things: the track changed or the time of one if not both of the races are wrong. Perhaps the fig with Paradise Woods is too high? Perhaps a 4 horse loose on the lead race is not a "she is what she is" race, and is misleading? I can go with the colt didn't run a 113 and ran 100.. I cant go with Paradise Woods 1.44.34 is faster then 1.43.54. Perhaps the race to cut loose was the Zenyatta? The problem with cutting the Zenyatta loose is its not unusual for loose speed horses to run their best figs when they have dynamics their own way, which she did. I dont know just an interesting conversation

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The also-rans in the Excelsior essentially ran to their previous figs.

Bingo