In 2007 I will be a better capper by:

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I guess I don't totally agree. We're interpreting the poster's "don't look at the tote board" differently. I'm not interpreting it as saying never look at the tote board and go with who you like regardless of the odds. I think it's the difference between:

1.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then structuring an exotic bet around that 3-2 key horse.

and

2.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then tossing the 3-2 shot out in favor of a horse that would pay $20 that you think has a small chance to win, just because you'd rather go down in flames with the 9-1 horse you don't like as much instead of the chalk just for the sake of saying you did.

I find the first to be rational, and the second to be plain stupid.

The point trying to be made (and you are missing) is what do you think the chances of the 3-2 and 9-1 shot are of winning. If you think the 3-2 shot's probably odds of winning is 35% and the 9-1 shot has an 11% chance of winning (3 x less likely) you are still better off playing the 9-1 shot. You should evaluate each horse in the race's likelyhood of winnning and compare vs the actual odds being offered on the horse. In the case of the 9-1 shot with an 11% chance of winning you should bet that horse every time and never bet the 3-2 horse (now if the 3-2 shot you predict would win the race 60% of the time then it is a good bet).

[Gander]

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

I understand what BTW is trying to say perfectly. If you like a horse the best who is 3/2 but see a horse who you not necessarily like better than your top choice but can see winning at around the 8/1 range, always bet more on the 8/1 shot. It might be painful if the 3/2 horse jogs home first and you think I could have cashed a ticket instead of throwing one on the ground, but in the long run the amount of money cashed on the occasional 8/1 shot winning will outweigh the amount on the 3/2 shot. You have to know what your doing and have logical reasoning behind supporting the 8/1 shot. Not just because he/she is 8/1 and you need that $18 payout to "get out".

I also understand what MATH716 is saying. I have changed my mind unwisely due to looking at the tote so many times. But I wasnt thinking rationally. I was thinking of what I need to get out or what a score I could make if I go with the greater priced horse. I guess somewhere inside me part of me convinced myself to bet a horse just because of the possible return.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

The point trying to be made (and you are missing) is what do you think the chances of the 3-2 and 9-1 shot are of winning. If you think the 3-2 shot's probably odds of winning is 35% and the 9-1 shot has an 11% chance of winning (3 x less likely) you are still better off playing the 9-1 shot. You should evaluate each horse in the race's likelyhood of winnning and compare vs the actual odds being offered on the horse. In the case of the 9-1 shot with an 11% chance of winning you should bet that horse every time and never bet the 3-2 horse (now if the 3-2 shot you predict would win the race 60% of the time then it is a good bet).

i'm not "missing" the point, i'm just talking about a 3-2 shot that i envision having more than a 35% chance of winning. when i'm talking about it, i'm thinking big favorites who SHOULD win, meaning that you decide there is more than a "regular" favorites chance of winning (35%-ish).

I am acutely aware of the odds-board vs. perceived likelihood of winning like you've described above. we're just talking about seeing a 3-2 favorite in a different way. if i like a 3-2 favorite generally i'm talking about a horse that i don't see likely losing, if i don't like him on paper it's still going to be obvious without looking at the board that he's a huge favorite -- at which point i know in advance that he's a huge underlay, so it becomes a moot point because i don't need to look at the odds-board and the this entire situation is avoided in the first place. get what i'm saying?

[2MinsToPost]

In 2007 I will be a better capper by -

Listening 99% of the time on here when the select few speak and not posting something stupid on that thread

Limiting my action to win bets and pick 3's, no more juice plays on a Thursday evening at Meadowlands Harness or Northfield

When I am at the track / simulcast facility pulling the reins in and just saying no when I need the action that I did not plan on playing

Most important for me - learning everything I can about track bias, form cycle, all those things that can help me in the long run say 10 - 15 years from now become a knowledgable horse player. Today I consider myself a danger, I think I know more then I actually know. However, I get a reality check like clockwork at the windows bringing me back to reality

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

i'm not "missing" the point, i'm just talking about a 3-2 shot that i envision having more than a 35% chance of winning. when i'm talking about it, i'm thinking big favorites who SHOULD win, meaning that you decide there is more than a "regular" favorites chance of winning (35%-ish).

I am acutely aware of the odds-board vs. perceived likelihood of winning like you've described above. we're just talking about seeing a 3-2 favorite in a different way. if i like a 3-2 favorite generally i'm talking about a horse that i don't see likely losing, if i don't like him on paper it's still going to be obvious without looking at the board that he's a huge favorite -- at which point i know in advance that he's a huge underlay, so it becomes a moot point because i don't need to look at the odds-board and the this entire situation is avoided in the first place. get what i'm saying?

No, I don't get what you're saying. You still have to look at the board to make sure the horse isn't going off at 2-5.

Also, you are stretching a lot to put words into the original poster's mouth.

--Dunbar

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Also, you are stretching a lot to put words into the original poster's mouth.

--Dunbar

basically, original poster explains it exactly how i've been trying to explain it. perhaps i've worded it poorly, but i've been saying the same thing that the original poster was. don't talk yourself out of the horse you think is going to win just because of the price...find creative ways (like i've been saying, using that horse as a key in exotics to cash in on it) to bet that horse instead of talking yourself out of it for the sake of not playing chalk.

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I totally understand that the tote board is very important and can actually be used as a tool. The point that I was trying to make was, that if I look at a race and the horse I like is 3-2 don't go back into the form and try talk myself into a 8-1 shot that all of a sudden looks better. (because he is not 3-2) If I look at a race and the horse I like is 25-1, I don't go back into the form to try to beat him. So why should I do it if the horse is 3-2? I should try to be more creative with my betting and get the most out of the 3-2 shot as possible. Maybe I could single him in a pick 3 or 4. I usually do not bet them but maybe I should start. Most of you people seem like very educated horse players and most of you probably are at the track or OTB every weekend. These days if I get to the track once a month it is alot. So not betting the race is really not an option for me, just because I don't get the opportunity that much. Also I go with a very limited bankroll. So I mainly bet exoctics, mostly exacta's. That's were I feel I could make the most money. The easiest way for me to put it is, I should not try to hit a triple or a homerun every race by tossing or using the 3-2 shot underneath instead of using it as my key horse. If I like that much make a win bet or use him soley on top and be happy with a base hit. Take my small profit and look for another spot. I am tired of ripping up would coulda shoulda tickets and start cashing the ones I should have bet in the first place!

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

basically, original poster explains it exactly how i've been trying to explain it. perhaps i've worded it poorly, but i've been saying the same thing that the original poster was. don't talk yourself out of the horse you think is going to win just because of the price...find creative ways (like i've been saying, using that horse as a key in exotics to cash in on it) to bet that horse instead of talking yourself out of it for the sake of not playing chalk.

I understand what you're saying but I disagree.

If you're willing to bet a horse at, say, 2-1 and it goes off at 3/2, you really do need to pass the race unless one of the other horses you believe can win is going off at odds significantly higher than your handicaped line.

You can use the Exacta pool to "validate" win odds and spot potential win pool overlays but you are far less likely to such a bet on a short priced hrse than you are for horses in the 6-1 to 10-1 range.

I think the best and only way to win wager is to bet your horse only when it is at some minimum level above what you think "fair" odds are. And as your horse's odds go up further relative to that minimum level, bet more.

If I think a horse's "fair odds" to win are 4-1, I would need 6-1 to wager $1X . If the same horse goes off at 8-1, I would wager $1.1, etc.

If you go to the track infrequently and recreationally and just want some action, just stay within your budget and enjoy the day. There is certainly nothing wrong with that and I still have those kind of days (ie, family day at the track, business lunch at the track, etc...)

But if you wager seriously, you have to be able to wait for the opportunities when your horse is going off at least at the minimum odds level you need to wager. And, more importantly, to increase your wager level when the odds are higher relative to that minimum.

More than how many winners someone catches, it's really about pressing your percieved advantage and bettting larger amounts when your selection is going off at increasingly higher odds.

just one man's opinion.